Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

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Since it now appears Beto is running, Will he enter the race in the next 2 weeks... or later?

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Any Democrat who would choose Beto over Kamala is basically an unconsciously bigoted person. 

This comment is Flatly Crazy.

2 years ago I fully expected to be backing Kamala & really hoped she would live up to the Hype.  But the reality is I don't think she has lived up to the Hype....

On the Flip side- I was against Beto being the Dem Senate Nominee in Texas (I thought Castro would be the better candidate)... Then Beto exceeded all expectations and showed that he seems to have that rare political X-factor that B. Clinton & Obama had (we will see if he is able to replicate this in a national campaign).

I am looking for a charasmatic candidate who has an Obama/ B Clinton type X-factor... And although it may be that none of the 2020 candidates will have it...  (like I stated earlier... I was hoping it would be Kamala)... but so far, Beto looks like the candidate most likely to fit this bill.

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I think its Hugely important that Beto's opening Rally far surpases all others in attendance.  Many Dems are looking for most electable... and having the largest opening Rally will set a strong tone in this regard.

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Since it now appears Beto is running, Will he enter the race in the next 2 weeks... or later?

I'm assuming within the next two weeks, and looks like it'll be via text:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.msg6705452#msg6705452

The whole thing's kind of weird though.  O'Rourke took the unusual step of admitting publicly that he's made up his mind, and did so more than a couple of days before he was ready to announce what that decision was.  But the thing is, if the answer was no, he's not running, then there's no reason to delay the announcement.  He would just announce that immediately upon making the decision.  So now we effectively know that he's running, and yet he's not admitting it publicly.

“It’s a bit much,” said one Democratic strategist who has spoken with O’Rourke about working on the 2020 campaign. “The question is, does he have a secret sauce that no one knows about — that no reporter, no operative, no strategist understands? Or is this just the ‘Beto Show.’ And if this is just the ‘Beto Show,’ there’s a breaking point between strategy and narcissism.”

Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democratic strategist based in New York, called O’Rourke’s demurrals “good media theater.” But he said, “It’s lousy politics … Your supporters are going to dissipate.”

The quote above^^  "Does Beto have the secret sauce ...that no one understands, etc etc"  ...
...Is this person referring to the decision to delay the announcement ... against the advice of reporters & strategists?? (Assuming so- the wording makes it seem much more negative than simply saying Beto is not agreeing with some strategist  & "Reporters" regarding the timeline of when to announce & roll out his campaign.

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But Regarding the delay... To begin with- all of the current candidates had over a year to get ready to announce their campaign (decide to run... then have the infrastructure in place to hit the ground running in a National Campaign).  And most of those candidates delayed their announcement a lot longer than Beto if you consider when they began planning for such a National campaign.

So in addition to just the time it takes to set up a Presidential Campaign (to be able to hit the ground running)... Is the need to have a really impressive opening rally a potential reason for the delayed announcement... in that once he decided he was definitely running - it may take a little time to set up an opening that will live up to some of the large rally's Beto during the Senate campaign?

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I'm going to LOL if we find out the reason he's been waiting is so he can announce mere hours after Biden, and steal some of his media thunder. Hell, maybe they're both playing chicken with each other at this point.

And what if Biden waits until October to announce he's not running? The joke will be on Beto.

I don't think Biden is a factor at all in the timing.  If Biden gets in- it will be in April IMO.  But I think there is still a better chance than most of giving it... that Biden ends up preserving his legacy & doesn't run (although ends up serving as a senior statesman Secretary of State if a Dem wins).

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Do you think Beto's first big campaign event will be a Mega Rally in Austin... or something else, somewhere else?

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Beto O’rourke is the single most blatant example of a media-created candidate I have ever seen in my time following politics.

What the heck is his claim to fame?

In a matter of like a year he went from an unrecognized nobody in the house to a major national figure despite a failed senate bid.

Say what you may about Beto... But the single biggest farce is the notion that Beto is a media creation.  Its almost the exact opposite IMO.  Beto generated buzz for his out of nowhere rise to make the Texas Senate race so competitive... and with Rally's that were bigger than some of the biggest presidential rallies.

The Media was very late to the game in covering this.  And the media has been very reserved about Beto's Presidential Prospects.  In fact I think the media has been overly critical on overly tepid regarding Beto's potential Presidential run (compared to almost all of the other candidates).

Kamala is much more of the Media darling thus far. 

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Yeah I feel like Harris is more media created than Beto.


Also Rubio was probably more of a media creation than Beto as well.

I almost see Rubio in a different category than a Media Creation.  Rubio is someone who on paper should've been the perfect candidate for Republicans (in a way similar to Kamala for Dems) and many people recognized this on their on regardless of what media was saying... But Rubio just completely lacks the political X-Factor (he doesn't even connect well with people... much less possess the charisma, likability, etc).  Kamala connects much better than Rubio and Kamala definitely has the Presence-Factor (many candidates lack a presidential sort of Presence)... but I do think she lacks the overall X-Factor that many, including myself, were hoping for (since again on paper she seems like a perfect candidate for Dems).

So I see Rubio more as a perfect resume/demo that just didn't have the likeability & X-Factor needed to take advantage of being an ideal combination of resume & demographic.

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Beto O'Rourke will be the 2016 Version of Donald Trump this time for Democrats. The only Difference: He announced earlier than Trump did in '16. He will upend the entire Democratic Primary. Biden can go home hiding now.

The DEM Nomination will be between O'Rourke and Harris.

I agree- But I think you may have to add Bernie into the finalist category?...only because he has probably 20% that will remain core Bernie supporters. So I think it will come down to Beto, Kamala, Bernie.  The question is will Bernie's 25% poll number in the early states... will grow- or will dwindle back to the 20% level.  To win Iowa- a candidate will probably need to get close to 30%.

Of course Beto & Kamala will both need surge in their current numbers.  Kamala has not achieved much of a rise yet- although there is certainly plenty of time.  We will see if Beto gets a bump into the mid-teens after his first week or two in the race... which I think is definitely possible.

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The announcement video has leaked:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y3CWsyiDWHrHOy30ygvKEk_77oq3uK3L/view

I really like Beto & think he is a great candidate & hope he gets the nominations...

.....BUT.....

... he has got to stop the shaky-blair-witch-style-videos.  Its fine to use selfie style videos- but his team needs to inform him of a bit of this type video edicate...  mainly to be far less jumpy.  You're in front of a zoomed in video- not on stage in front of a large crowd.

The may seem picky- but it is the type thing that can turn off some people (especially older voters) my making him look erratic.  You're running for President- So Be Professional enough to calm down a bit on video message.

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He literally has no path to the nomination. He just wasted his political capitol on a race he's guaranteed to lose.

This is "Literally" very far from the truth (But I think the poster probably knows it). 

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I'm neutral on Beto. I think he would be a decent VP or Cabinet Secretary but not President.

Also, Beto is more of a motivational speaker than President lol. Beto seems like he's being naive that if he became President that Republicans will care about "unity".

To start with... I think people often confuse the intended meaning of unity (candidates like Beto- and Obama- use it to mean positivity & civility... Not let's all agree on policy issues).  Also as a means of cutting out the sophomorish drama of politics (argue about policy- not side issue or petty personal attacks).

I also think people are wildly underestimating Beto's savvy & drive to win.  Part of his nice guy talk- is that he knows this is his strength and what sets him apart.  But although I do think such is his genuine nature... I think he can pull out a few elbows when needed and when staying consistent with the optimistic nice guy message is not advantageous. But above all I think he is far more politically astute than people realize.  After all, he started his congressional career by challenging and beating a Democratic in the Primary.. who was an 8 term Hispanic Congressman (in an 80% Hispanic District).  And although people focus on the fact that he lost the Senate race... he did better than probably any Dem in the national could have done running in Texas (Winning more votes than any Dem in the history of the state in any election... including Hillary & Obama).  Those 2 accomplishments alone should indicate that he's not a push over or naive.

People said the same things regarding Obama, regarding Kennedy ... and both turned out to be good presidents.  Being able to inspire may be more important for a President than a policy expert... after all the Congress formulates most policy initiatives..and policy advisers.  The President just needs good judgement & the ability to inspire.

The qualities Beto possesses can make for a very good President (but are awful qualities for a VP or a Cabinet Position)... Someone with the qualities & strengths of Elizabeth Warren are the one that are great for a Cabinet Position.

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If he doesn't support single payer he can get lost. People are dying in this country because they don't have healthcare,  we don't have time for "bipartisanship"

But I do think it is important to have achievable Healthcare goals that can become law... otherwise the situation is even more dire after 4 years of no achievements.

Re-Strengthening Obamacare... And Very importantly adding a Public Option... are good immediate 1st steps.  Public Option is important for many reasons... and Obamacare was designed in a way that it would lead to Universal Coverage (had it not been undermined by Republicans (and was designed knowing it would need improving and tweeking going forward).

So I think the best option is Immediately get a Public Option & re-strengthen the ACA... then you have a stable runway to actually having a chance of then going for and achieving a more progressive type of Healthcare policy/ Coverage.

But if you try to go straight to step 3 immediately.... 1) you likely end up with nothing considering it has to get through the Senate... and 2) you won't have the needed foundation to make it work even if you did get it though the senate.

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Saw his launch. I,m underwhelmed. To be fair I was also underwhelmed by Harris,s launch until she gave that speech in Oakland. Hopefully he will step up his game.

I agree that his first Campaign Rally (which I think is planned for sometime in the next week or two in El Paso) needs to be impressive... and with an attendance number that far surpases any thus far (I think Kamala had around 20k & Bernie had around 12K... so Beto needs a 30K+ opening rally).

^^^And I agree with the above comment regarding Beto's 1st day Fundraising... (It would be a big boost if the numbers are rally strong)

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Beto has so many skeletons in his closet the left won't like if they bother to look.

Donald has so many skeletons in his closet the right won't like if they bother to look.

So Bernie & Beto use to write questionable fiction (John Grisham and many others have obviously written much darker content in their past writings... writing fiction about a serial killer involves getting in the mind of hardened criminals etc ... otherwise all crime novels and movies would be autobiographies)... And that Beto was a member of a hacking community... Not really a big deal considering Beto was 15 (and likely high) ... and not sure what age Bernie was, but considering how old he is now... I assume it was many many decades ago.  
I really don't see how either is very relevant today.  One thing everyone seems to agree with is that Beto is a genuinely kind, friendly, empathic guy.  So I don't think a fictional writing from age 15 will have much impact.  

(also- during this hacking & writing time... Beto complains about the Hacking world being too male dominated & helps get a female hacker into some important position? ... and writes things that rail against jewish and racial discrimination).  So another takeaway... at a young age Beto was committed to and cared a lot about women's rights, and anti-discrimination... at a time when neither was as normal for teenagers as it is today.

Compare these child-hood things to Trump's adulthood activities of violating fair-housing via discrimination practices, a sustain media campaign calling for death penalty of minority teens falsely convicted,  actually assaulting women & having affairs with pornstars while his wife was pregnant, etc etc (not to mention many things that are not publicly known... considering he is 72... so there was no internet or social media during his first 46 years of life (which I think is how old Beto is).

And regarding Primary... I'm sure the other frontrunners (Biden, Bernie, Warren, Kamala) will not be too quick to attack Beto for activities when he was 15 and 16 years old.  Everyone of them have a few questionable thing from their earlier past.

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Ok my question is y tf would he flip flop on healthcare after defending it while running STATEwide in texas and then chooses the opposite in a national D primary.

Unfortunately, it's only solidified my suspicion that he never really wanted to be in the Senate and had his eye on the presidency all along. I don't want to harp on it too much because I can't prove it (obviously), but I was confused at why he seemed to be pandering to a national audience during his Senate run, even after he'd gotten national attention, he could have moderated on a few things like the assault weapons ban and picked up more votes.

That's the problem with rewarding losers and (punishing winners like Sherrod Brown by telling them they have to stay in the Senate or a GOP Guv will replace their seat). It creates perverse incentives that you can never really be sure aren't causing harm.

How has Beto flipped on healthcare- he has always supported Universal Healthcare (just not single payer that must be provided by government run programs).  But also that after Universal Healthcare is achieved... other systems are worth considering.

I think every Dems goal should be for immediately restrengthening the ACA (and reimplement the caps on Private insurance profit margins), Add the public option, and implement the tweaks to Obamacare that Dems have said is needed. Only then should anything else be pursued... otherwise you won't have the infrastructure, much less the votes needed, to achieve the next step.

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https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1106543029371002880

Inexcusable.

So regarding ACA tweet- Did beto want everyone to die and not have healthcare... or Was he against it (at that specific time) because he was in favor of a different legislative proposal being considered than went further and included a Public Option? ...

Regarding Social Security age eligibility & means testing... Means testing social security sounds bad ... but its saying that wealthy people (or as Romney would say "people of means") should not get Social Security.  If you are trying to formulate a plan to preserve SS for future generations.... Really wealthy people do not need Social Security & will never notice if the receive it or not. (so whats wrong with means testing social security)  And people are living and working much longer than when SS was created... so it is not unreasonable to adhere to the notion that to save the program we may have to gradually raise the age a year or two in the future (which is still at a later time percentage wise... considering the increased life expectancy... than when the program was put in place).

Seems to me like a selectively worded tweet to mislead, especially the ACA part!

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You can really tell that many on the right... and on the left who support other candidates... do see Beto as a big threat- B/c the knives and hit piece are coming a mile a minute the past several days.  No other candidate in Primary has experienced anything even remote close to this barrage.  (so I guess this is a good sign for Beto.  And soon the size of this barrage will end up sort of eating itself as such fire alarm overkill starts to make itself easier to tune out).

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https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1106543029371002880

Inexcusable.

So regarding ACA tweet- Did beto want everyone to die and not have healthcare... or Was he against it (at that specific time) because he was in favor of a different legislative proposal being considered than went further and included a Public Option? ...

Regarding Social Security age eligibility & means testing... Means testing social security sounds bad ... but its saying that wealthy people (or as Romney would say "people of means") should not get Social Security.  If you are trying to formulate a plan to preserve SS for future generations.... Really wealthy people do not need Social Security & will never notice if the receive it or not. (so whats wrong with means testing social security)  And people are living and working much longer than when SS was created... so it is not unreasonable to adhere to the notion that to save the program we may have to gradually raise the age a year or two in the future (which is still at a later time percentage wise... considering the increased life expectancy... than when the program was put in place).

Seems to me like a selectively worded tweet to mislead, especially the ACA part!

So you are advocating eliminating SS for 65, 66 year olds? That is a far right conservative fringe political stance.

At a time when Income Inequality is @ the worst state since the gilded age, at a time when 20% of seniors can't afford prescription drugs, at a time when almost 40-50% of people can't afford a medical emergency or a some big expense, at a time when a 65 year old has no job prospect which gives a decent living, you want to gradually eliminate SS for 65 year olds.

You advocate for a regressive taxation code with the cap on payroll taxes where a billionaire pays less in % taxes than a nurse to pay for SS instead of lifting the cap.

It is okay to hold moderate/conservative views on many areas though.

Who said anything about a regressive tax code?  Beto think taxes should be raise on higher income brackets.

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I think I am moving from Biden to Beto. That answer about his comments on his wife Amy was sincere and substantive. Hope to see more of that.

Most voters seem to like Beto a lot when they meet him in person- So he basically needs to meet a bit over 50K Iowa Voters & 50K NH voters between now and the caucus/primary, which he should definitely be able to do considering his campaign for Senate schedule. (I think 50K in each state is about 30% of the Dem vote- a percentage that would likely ensure a win).

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what do you think is the deal with Beto's fundraising- and not releasing totals yet...

1) He was under $1 Million 1st day
2) He was around $1 Million, but wants to stand out so he's hoping his 5-day number will jump to  a more impressive number
3) Other?

...surely with some of the advisors/ campaign folks he's attracting, they can at least get enough donors to make for impressive 1st week numbers  (even if this slows a fair amount after week 1)

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https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1107112389298794496

Fair answer. I wouldn't begrudge him picking an LGBT or non-white man; perhaps referencing those demographics specifically would've been a more effective response, but still.

Regardless who ends up being the nominee... I think there is a 100% chance a woman will be on the ticket this time- and 98% chance there will be a minority on the ticket.

Beto would probably pick Kamala, unless she really underperforms in the primaries.  Although I personally think if he were to win- his team should definitely consider Doubling down on the border state ticket with NM Gov Lujan Grisham/ the 1st Latina to ever be on a presidential ticket (which would likely be a very strong ticket for AZ, FL, and taking a stab at TX, b/c I think Beto will put enough time in WI & MI to win those two regardless of who he chose for VP).

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The two most important states in 2020 will be Florida & Wisconsin. If Beto were to become the nominee I'd like to see him pick the man who came within half a percent of winning the race for governor of Florida, Andrew Gillum. Together, they would comprise a talented (and both youthful and highly energetic) team. Of course, the primary thing lacking on this ticket would be a woman. Amendment 4 (Voting Rights Restoration) having been passed and now implemented in Florida, could create a situation where a narrow loss in '18 becomes a narrow win in '20. Beto would need to constantly campaign in Wisconsin and Gillum would need to double down on Florida. WINNING EITHER STATE SHOULD BE ENOUGH (OVER 270 ELECTORS) TO SEND THEM TO THE WHITE HOUSE. YOUTHFUL AND ENERGETIC DEM TICKETS WIN!

Andrew Gillum had absolutely no business losing Florida and his opponent was a clown. Beto needs to pick a woman Senator from the Mid-West or one of the Latinas (Senate or Gov) from the Sun Belt.

I pretty much agree with this response.  but I do think Beto would need to choose a minority woman as running mate... whether Gov Lujan Grisham, Kamala, or someone else (but I do not think Duckworth or Cortez Masto would be good choices).  Kamala & Grisham both have more charisma & presence...  

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The person who asked this is a F[INKS]ING LOSER

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1107365403481829376?s=19

Others may disagree with with me... And I personally have no problem with it... but I remember thinking that he needs to refrain from 4 letter words in town halls & campaign stops (in one stop his first day he used one, can't remember which).  Again, although I don't care, but he needs to be respectful for those in the crowd, who have come to see him, that may care (especially since he is running as the positive good guy campaigner, etc).

Regarding being in Charleston, SC in one of the above questions... Cunningham & his wife are big fans of Beto, so I'm sure they will endorse Beto at some point.  Regarding James Smith- he was running for Governor, not a congressional seat (and although he would've been a great Governor & should've been able to make it a tight Gov's race... he unfortunately ran an awful & totally lack luster Campaign.  Maybe because he has always won easily & was therefore unprepared in a way? Not sure, but it really was a HUGE letdown by someone who had all the tools necessary to make the election a close one (against a very weak candidate in McMaster).

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Beto is off to a good start after all- Raising $6.1 Million in the first 24 hours, topping Bernie's $5.9 Million & Kamala's $1.5 Million.