The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[OneJ]

Very interesting. I wonder why Warren has on the board that group of people. I get Gershon, Delgado, Brindisi, and Balter, but AOC? Is she playing some type of 4D chess that we don't know about yet?

[OneJ]

Politico on Gillum.

I love Gillum and Abrams as much as (probably more than) I love Beto but to the people asking why the latter gets more attention than the former two, I would think the answer is obvious: Beto has federal experience, while Abrams only has state experience and Gillum doesn't even have that. Beto should run; Abrams should run for Senate; Gillum should wait and see what 2022's like in the Senate and Governorship in FL. Or maybe US House?

If Gillum were governor-elect, maybe (though he shouldn't've abandoned the state after two years). Ex-mayor Gillum? No.

Isn't it more the fact that Gillum massively undperformed while Abrams slightly underperformed and beto overperformed

Why do you say Abrams underperformed? The RCP average was Kemp +3 and the final result was Kemp +1.4. However, Gillum definitely underperformed without even looking at the polling on that race.

[OneJ]

Gillum is a failure. I roll my eyes every time he is coupled with Beto and Stacey. He lost to someone who ran a Neo-Nazi facebook page and refused to return the donation of someone who called Obama a Muslim N____r in a swing state that Obama won twice (!) so I don't want to hear about the Bradley effect.

Gwen would have won *ducks*

After her piss poor performance in the primary I disagree- she had a complete monopoly on the state party, and all the backing iirc of the usual special interests groups.

There may be 10,000 voters who really liked Scott, but hated DeSantis- but if you take out Gillum you get rid of the surge of African-Americans, and I still struggle to see who's voting Scott/Graham.

But yes- Gillum shouldn't run for President.

This 100%. And Nelson is the bigger failure for more obvious reasons. I struggle to see Ghram pulling it out too considering Nelson couldn’t even win.

[OneJ]

Atlanta is the de facto capital of black America, it makes sense from that standpoint.

I thought that was Chicago.

Definitely not, in fact northern cities like Chicago are experiencing a reverse great migration due to gentrification and crime. Atlanta on the other hand has the most black-owned businesses per capita, lower black unemployment and lower cost of living.

Yeah, Atlanta has been known, and still is, as the “Black Mecca”. In addition to this, Chicago is only like 1/3 black and the black population there is declining.

[OneJ]

« Biden has told some that he’s running » and could even announce on January 15.

https://politicalwire.com/2019/01/12/biden-has-told-some-hes-running/

So that is official but he will just officially announce later in January or in early February.

Ugh.

[OneJ]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/13/politics/bill-de-blasio-democrats-cnntv/index.html

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So he suggests that Democrats lost in 2016 because they were too far left...#greatanalysis

[OneJ]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/13/politics/bill-de-blasio-democrats-cnntv/index.html

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So he suggests that Democrats lost in 2016 because they were too far left...#greatanalysis

That's not what he said. His argument was clearly that Hillary lost because she wasn't far enough to the left, not because she was too far left.

Ah, I see. I definitely skipped a small, yet significant piece in that.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/GMA/status/1087122600986210305

any extra buzz to make us think this is the moment?

According to the 2020 Democratic primary Wikipedia article she is supposed to announce today

It says Jan 21st actually.

My bad, I had confused her with Gabbard. Which doesn't even make sense, because Gabbard has already announced her candidacy

I assume they meant for Gabbard to "formally" announce her candidacy or whatever.

[OneJ]

Booker and Sanders went to South Carolina event of the NAACP in honor of MLK.

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[OneJ]

Beto opts not to run for Senate, will likely announce Presidential bid in the coming weeks.

Ugh.

[OneJ]

Why are so many Democrats running? Such a fractured field may only end up helping Trump.

I mean the 2016 Republican primary was quite fractured as well. It didn’t seem to hurt Trump in the slightest.

[OneJ]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

Additionally, he's out of step with the Democratic Party on multiple issues that the party is undeniably starting to moving left on (primarily economic issues). If Biden ends up winning the nomination and then wins the presidency, he'll rightfully face a lot of scrutiny from the left for not being progressive enough, if at all.

[OneJ]

Andrew Gillum has sent out an email to supporters touting a "major announcement in South Florida" on March 20.

Gillum is not from South Florida.

Huh, interesting. There is no major race in FL this go-around, so this is either 3 things.
1. "Im not running for President, and this was highly pointless"
2. "I have nothing to do, so Im going to run for president"
3. "Im going to run for the House"

I know this is kind of far-fetched, but maybe he’s gonna announce that he’ll try to challenge DeSantis again in 2022.

[OneJ]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/joe-biden-tells-backers-he-plans-on-2020-presidential-run-2019-03-19

Former Vice President Joe Biden reached out to at least a half-dozen supporters Tuesday to tell them he intends to run for president and to ask for their help in lining up contributions from major donors so he can quickly raise several million dollars, said a person familiar with the matter.

Biden has expressed concern to these people that he wouldn’t be able to raise millions of dollars in online donations immediately the way some other Democratic candidates have, including former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, this person said. O’Rourke raised $6.1 million in the 24 hours after his announcement, while Sanders collected $5.9 million in the same period.

Biden wants to announce a large fundraising number after his candidacy is official to better compete in what is often dubbed the “money primary” that kicks off a presidential season.

This is another problem I have with Joe.

Because of him reaching out to who I presume to be a few, yet pretty ”big” supporters of Biden will likely inflate his $ numbers which I assume will most likely surpass Beto and Bernie’s although Beto still hasn’t announced his number of donors. Biden better hope his numbers aren’t disappointing.