NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Mr.Phips]

AP declares Hanabusa winner

What do I need to put up as my sig again, or something? I don't remember the exact deals of our bet. Congratulations Memphis. Pity I had to lose a bet due to the loss of a man that I admire. Such is life. I would give you Oberstar if you give me Djou in a milisecond.

I agree with Torie here.  Djou is an awesome guy and didn't deserve to lose.

That's what I would say about a lot of Democrats who lost tonight.  Djou was simply a fluke who would lose once he had to run against a Democrat one on one.  Also, the fact that it looked like Republicans would win the House really hurt him.  Had this been a quiet, run of the mill midterm, he may have survived. 

[Mr.Phips]

They'll probably have to let McIntyre live if they want Ellmers to stay. There's not a whole lot you can do with NC-11, unless you turn it into a bizarre squidlike district. Kissell, however, is probably going to be screwed.

Kissell won by almost 10 points in the worst cycle for Democrats since 1946.  Even if Republicans take Mecklenberg county away from him, he would still win.

[Mr.Phips]

Well, California, but we're not allowed to gerrymander that unfortunately.

Yes, the Dems don't control the process in California. In fact, they, along with the Republicans, have absolutely nothing to do with it. What it has most to do with is federal law, and the host of strictures of how districts have to be drawn, that are now statutory in California, and are to be implemented by the independent commission.

The GOP appears to have drawn a royal flush when it comes to the gerrymandering wars. I wonder how much the GOP endeavored to maximize the odds of that particular draw?

On the flip side, Republicans now wont be able to gerrymander Florida with the redistricting proposition that passed. 

[Mr.Phips]

Well, California, but we're not allowed to gerrymander that unfortunately.

Yes, the Dems don't control the process in California. In fact, they, along with the Republicans, have absolutely nothing to do with it. What it has most to do with is federal law, and the host of strictures of how districts have to be drawn, that are now statutory in California, and are to be implemented by the independent commission.

The GOP appears to have drawn a royal flush when it comes to the gerrymandering wars. I wonder how much the GOP endeavored to maximize the odds of that particular draw?

On the flip side, Republicans now wont be able to gerrymander Florida with the redistricting proposition that passed. 

Yes, and per your post, I looked up in the Miami Herald the story about the proposition. It says lines need respect city and county boundaries (the GOP can handle that without losing too much of its gerrymandering punch, although it might be tough to save Alan West in FL-22), but then the story I read says that in addition, one is not to take partisan considerations into mind. Huh?  How do you enforce that one?  Is it like what porn is to the US Supreme Court (we know it when we see it, or what)?  Or is it just a crummy reporting job, and the prop in fact has in it more specific metrics about the shape of districts, to squeeze out partisanship?

Essentially, no more drawing tendrils out of Orange county to make FL-08 safe for Republicans. 

[Mr.Phips]

Im surprised the Bennet survived.  He has that seat for as long as he wants it after tonight.

[Mr.Phips]

Will Mary Bono Mack have trouble being reelected in 2012 if Steve Pougnet runs again?  A 10% win is not very solid, especially in such a good year for Pubbies.

I would certainly say so.  Especially as her district will probably be reconfigured to be more Democratic in redistricting. 

[Mr.Phips]

Nah he'll probably survive. All the Republican parts of Dold's seat likely end up in his and Dold ends up with the two-year career.

More likely is that the most Republican parts of this district are packed into Manzullo's district. 

[Mr.Phips]

Bishop wins, hopefully =)

I've heard etheridge will concede =/. but ellmers will be very vulnerable in 2012

What, after the disgusting Democratic gerrymander is replaced by a disgusting Republican one? Hah.

I dont see why the Democratic legislature in NC doesnt quickly pass a law that gives the governor a veto over redistricting in the lame duck session.

[Mr.Phips]

Bishop wins, hopefully =)

I've heard etheridge will concede =/. but ellmers will be very vulnerable in 2012

What, after the disgusting Democratic gerrymander is replaced by a disgusting Republican one? Hah.

I dont see why the Democratic legislature in NC doesnt quickly pass a law that gives the governor a veto over redistricting in the lame duck session.

Are they in session?  If they do that, I would suggest the Pubbies get rid of some inconvenient laws regarding district drawing in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The rules are crimping my style, as I struggle to effect an effective gerrymander that won't be ruled illegal. Particularly irritating are these trapped Pubbie votes in a black district in the Gross Pointes in Michigan that I can't get it, and I need them to fully realize my evil designs. It's tough! 

I dont think there are any rules in Pennsylvania. 

[Mr.Phips]

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

Riverhead has already been counted. 

[Mr.Phips]

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

Riverhead has been counted.   Some of Brookhaven has been counted, but most still remains (41 of 294 ED's).  Everything else has been counted.

Bishop won Brookhaven narrowly on Election Day (50.11-49.82).

As far as more registered Republican absentees than Democrats.  That is true, but the GOP registration advantage with the absentees is actually smaller than the GOP registration advantage in the district. 

If that's the case, Bishop should come out ahead by 25 votes.