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[OSR stands with Israel]

Alabama Governor George Wallace wins upset victories Michigan and Maryland



Michigan Primary:
Alabama Governor George Wallace 40% 54 Delegates
Former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford 28% 36 Delegates
Senator Eugene McCarthy 20% 27 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson 12% 15 Delegates

Maryland Primary:
Alabama Governor George Wallace 33% 22 Delegates
North Carolina Terry Sanford 30% 18 Delegates
Senator Eugene McCarthy 22% 9 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson 15% 4 Delegates



Brinkley: While at this point in the race the chances of Governor Wallace winning are almost zero , these losses by Governor Sanford still deals a blow to his campaign as it is clear that the nominee will be either Governor Sanford or Senator McCarthy and the delegates Governor Sanford missed out tonight will hurt him in the overall count versus Senator McCarthy.


Breaking News: Alabama Governor George Wallace Shot while giving his victory speech in Michigan:



Brinkley: We have some major news to report to you out of Michigan and that is that Alabama Governor George Wallace George Wallace has been shot while giving his victory speech there and is now taken to a hospital. Thankfully we are told that he will be able to survive the assassination attempt.

All the other Presidential candidates announced they would suspend their campaigns for a day and wished the Governor a full recovery. President Goldwater has just released a statement strongly condemning the shooter in the harshest terms possible saying the justice department will do all in its power to make sure he is brought to justice, and said this type of violence is never justified.

Coretta King , The Wife of of one of the most prominent civil rights leaders of the late 50s and 60s Martin Luther King Jr also reacted to the shooting with his statement:

Coretta King: I greatly deplore this dastardly act that was perpetrated against Governor Wallace. I certainly defend his right to run for the Presidency and to speak his convictions. As an American, he has a right to do that and he has the right to do that without the fear of losing his life so I wish him a full recovery. I want to end by saying this : My Husband's message was to help bring out the best in all of us and this type of violence does the opposite.

Chancellor: I want people to remember that Governor Wallace was one of the biggest opponents to Martin Luther King so for her to come out with a statement like that shows a lot about her integrity.


Senator McCarthy Wins Colorado and Utah Caucuses:



Colorado Caucus:
Senator Eugene McCarthy 51% 20 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson 30% 11 Delegates
Former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford 18% 7 Delegates
Alabama Governor George Wallace 1%


Utah Caucus:
Senator Eugene McCarthy 41% 8 Delegates
Former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford 34% 7 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson 24% 5 Delegates
Alabama Governor George Wallace 1%


Brinkley: No surprise Senator McCarthy won the caucus states tonight but it shows great news for him in California. Polls in California show him up anywhere up from 9 to 12 points and a win there would be a huge as California is a winner take all state

[OSR stands with Israel]

McCarthy is the big winner on Super Tuesday 2 with a huge win in Winner Take All California and in 3 other states.



California Primary:
Senator Eugene McCarthy 42% 271 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson 28%
Former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford 26%
Alabama Governor George Wallace 4%

New Mexico Primary:
Senator Eugene McCarthy 34% 10 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson 31% 8 Delegates
Former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford 29%
Alabama Governor George Wallace 6%


South Dakota Primary:
Senator Eugene McCarthy 54%  9 Delegates
Former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford 30% 5 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson 15% 3 Delegates
Alabama Governor George Wallace 1%

Montana Caucus
Senator Eugene McCarthy 49% 9 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson 41% 7 Delegates
Former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford 9% 2 Delegates
Alabama Governor George Wallace 1%

Arkansas Caucus:
Former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford 54% 18 Delegates
Alabama Governor George Wallace 40% 14 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson 3% 1 Delegate
Senator Eugene McCarthy 3% 1 Delegate


Brinkley: Today's results were a huge victory for Senator McCarthy whose wins particularly in winner take all California will means that he all but certain will win a plurality of the delegates. Now the question I have for you John is how did he manage to do it

Chancellor: Well he managed to do it for a simple reason was his performance in Northern California particularly in the Bay Area where he totally and utterly dominated his field. While Northern California is less populated then Southern California, the North has much more power in a Democratic primary due to much of Southern California being dominated by Republicans and the fact is neither Mr.Sanford or Mr.Jackson were able to come close to replicate that type of dominance in Southern California. Mr.Sanford did win the LA metro area but Mr.Jackson won San Diego County and still had a reasonably good performance in the LA metro.  


Brinkley: Now people may be wondering about the results of New Mexico and I just want to let the viewers know the reason they are like that is the Delegates are appropriated only among the top 2 candidates. Now lets look at the overall primary board


Primary Map:

Senator Eugene McCarthy 789 Delegates
Former North Carolina Governor Sanford 535 Delegates
Alabama Governor George Wallace 322 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson  194 Delegates
Former Justice Arthur Goldberg 13 Delegates
Congresswomen Shirley Chisholm 2 Delegates
New York City Mayor John Lindsay 2 Delegates
Congressman Wilbur Mills 2 Delegates


Brinkley: If Senator McCarthy wins New York the battle for the nomination will likely be all but over unless the so called Anyone but McCarthy attempts at changing the California delegate allocation but the chances of that are unlikely . So New York will decide if there is a chance for Governor Sanford to win or not but even then the Democratic party is facing a nightmare scenario at the convention.

Chancellor: Yup because we either have McCarthy win the nomination outright which would mean the Democrats have to make up more than a 20 point polling deficit in just a few months to have any hopes of winning or there will be a contested convention which will divide the party like it did in 1968 or even 1924.


President Goldwater kicks off reelection campaign with a rally in Fairfax County , Virginia




Brinkley: The President kicked off his reelection campaign in Fairfax County , Virginia a DC suburb which is expected to go overwhelmingly for the President in November no matter who he faces. The President talked about their successes here at home with passing tax reform, block grants, cutting back on regulations , and the trade deal and talking about their success in Vietnam. He then attacked the Democrats espically Eugene McCarthy as big government liberals over and over and then mentioned where we were in 1968 and said a Democratic victory would bring us back to those times. He ended by hitting on the themes of what he wants to do in his next term, another round of tax reform, cutting back on spending and other conservative goals.

[Sir Mohamed]

My prediction: the dude is gonna lose big against Goldwater.

[UWS]

My prediction: the dude is gonna lose big against Goldwater.

I agree. Most of the Democratic contenders are not so well liked, especially Wallace and McCarthy. And who knows, it is also possible that the 1972 DNC is brokered if the primary race continues to be so splitted between the 4 remaining candidates.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Breaking News: McCarthy very likely to be Democratic Nominee after upset win in New York:



New York Primary:
Senator Eugene McCarthy 42% 180 Delegates
Former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford 41% 53 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson 16% 15 Delegates
Alabama Governor George Wallace 1%


Brinkley: After a stunning win in New York , it is now very likely very likely that Senator Eugene McCarthy will be the Democratic Nominee. The reason we can say that is one by looking at the delegate board:

Senator Eugene McCarthy 969 Delegates
Former North Carolina Governor Sanford 588 Delegates
Alabama Governor George Wallace 322 Delegates
Senator Henry Jackson  209 Delegates
Former Justice Arthur Goldberg 13 Delegates
Congresswomen Shirley Chisholm 2 Delegates
New York City Mayor John Lindsay 2 Delegates
Congressman Wilbur Mills 2 Delegates


That Gives McCarthy a decisive delegate lead entering the convention and given that out of the remaining delegates we are told that three fifth are likely to go to McCarthy that will give him a total of 1516 delegates more than half of the total 3019 required  to win the nomination. The reason for this is simple McCarthy troops are far better organized at all these state conventions where the delegates are chosen so you get more McCarthy loyalists due to that. These pledged delegates on the other hand are not McCarthy loyalists they are just pledged to him so the fact is if the Anyone But McCarthy group is able to get the convention to change the California allocation rules they could deny him the nomination. But other than that I would say its over.


Chancellor: The Question is now his VP pick which he will begun the process to look for anyday now. In my opinion he needs to pick a Southern Moderate as his running mate

Brinkley: That is if they are interested in joining the ticket with Senator McCarthy

Goldwater Leads in First General Election Polls by Over 20 Points. Poll also shows Democrats 18 year House Majority also in Jeopardy 

NBC's Battleground Map:

Dark Color = Lead of Greater than 12 point
Light Color = Lead between 6-12 points
No Color = Within 6 Points

Goldwater/Rhodes 429 57%
McCarthy 33  36%
Tossup 76

Chancellor: If you want to look deeper into these numbers McCarthy is trailing the President by 30 plus points in every Confederate state and in Texas its by a stunning 40 points, is trailing in California by 20 points, Illionis by 18 and the Interior west by margins similar to the South. For any chance for a recovery he must have a strong convention bounce probably by at least 12 points.

Brinkley: To let our viewers know our characterizations of states , well throughout the cycle the requirement will change . Up till the end of the conventions, the meaning of a Solid State is a lead of 12 and  Leaning will be a lead of at least 6, from the convention to the end of the debates Solid will be a lead of over 10 and Leaning will be lead of at least 5, and in the final stretch Solid will be a lead of over 8 and Leaning will be a Lead of at least 4.

Chancellor: Now we also did a poll of the House Generic Ballot and this is what the results were

House Generic Ballot:

Republicans: 47%
Democrats: 44%

Brinkley: With those numbers the Republicans could have a chance of taking the House for the first time in 18 years

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC 1972 Election Special: McCarthy's Running Mate Selection

Chancellor: Now that the Democratic Race is pretty much over unless the very unlikely scenario of the DNC changing the allocation rules of California, the next step in the process is for Senator McCarthy to choose a running mate. Now David who are the most likely choices from the list

Brinkley: Well first thing before I list , I want to let the viewers know that this is not a list of who we think would be the best choice for Senator McCarthy, but who we think would be the most likely choice.

Frank Church:



Strengths: Would help the ticket out West especially in the North West , could help bring some more Libertarians on Board as Well

Weaknesses: Does not Help in Any of the Big Industrial States or in California , or among Moderates

Reubin Askew:



Strengths: Would help unite the Democratic Party, Help Greatly in the South

Weaknesses: Could be Viewed as too inexperienced, and may not help in terms of turning out the base which could be critical in a state like New York or Pennsylvania

George McGovern:



Strengths: Would help increase turnout among anti-war liberals and help in the Dakotas

Weaknesses: Would alienate Moderate and Labor Democrats, and would drive Anti-Goldwater Republicans back into the Republican camp

Ed Muskie:



Strengths: Would help ticket in the North East , bring Moderate Democrats on board and even some Liberal Republicans

Weaknesses: Would not help ticket in the West or South

Birch Bayh:



Strengths: Would help ticket in Midwest, bring Labor Democrats on Board as well as keep base energized

Weakness: Lost 1968 Senatorial Campaign as an Incumbent

Jesse Unruh:



Strengths: Could potentially put California in play , lots of legislative experience

Weaknesses: Neither a Governor or Senator , wouldn't generate enthusiasm among any wing of party

Chancellor: I think the best choices would be Askew or Unruh due to the fact that they would help McCarthy unite the party more than any other pick and help in many critcal states . The worst would be George McGovern and I can tell you this if he picks McGovern he will not only not lose any chance of winning, he will lose in the largest landslide we have seen since 1936 maybe largest landslide ever other than elections where the winner was unopposed. That is a pick he cannot make under any circumstances

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of the 1972 DNC:

Breaking News:Senator Eugene McCarthy nominated after an attempt to change California Allocation Rules Changes, Former Indiana Senator Birch Bayn named his running mate.



Bayh: Thank You, Thank You , it is an honor to be nominated  as the Vice Presidential Nominee by this great Party of Jefferson, Jackson , and Roosevelt and I accept your nomination(Applause). President Roosevelt once told us that the "test of our progress is not whether we add more abundance to those who have much it is whether we provide enough for those who have little"(Applause) but for the past 4 years we have moved in the total opposite direction(Boos). President Goldwater and the Republicans have given the wealthiest among us large tax breaks while cutting back on programs that benefit poor families(Boos) and this November we must tell them that enough and elect Senator Eugene McCarthy as our next President (Applause).

It is time that we have a government again that puts the working class of our nation first and if you elect Senator McCarthy as President we will work to end the President's block grant program and instead implement programs that expands the War on Poverty so we can end hunger in this nation(Appluase), invest money in our schools so all our children can have a decent education(Applause), strenghen our unions to guarntee that every working man and women have a chance of living decent lives, and work towards the goal of passing Universal Healthcare (Applause). It wont be easy but I am sure we can achieve all those goals because if we work together as Americans anything is possible. Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause).

Excerpts from Senator Eugene McCarthy's Accepting the Presidential Nomination:



McCarthy: Thank You, Thank You. Its an honor being nominated as the Presidential Nominee for this Great Party and I accept your nomination(Applause). For the past 4 years we have had an administration that has attacked the working men and women of our nation by cutting important government programs , getting rid of regulations that make that stop the wealthiest among us from expoliting the average American for their own greed , waging a war on our unions while giving massive tax cuts to the rich(Boos). It is time that we say enough, and move into a new direction (Applause) that benefits all Americans just not the wealthiest among us(Applause).

It is also time to change our foreign policy because if we dont we risk beign dragged into new wars like Vietnam. There is no reason we need to have such a large military intervening all around the world if we cant take care of our own people so I propose we reduce military spending by 30% so we can make sure no American goes to bed hungry again(Appluase). Now to do that wont be easy but to do so we must be open to more negotiations with the Soviets so we can lessen tensions, get rid of both our nuclear stockpiles and usher in a new era of peace(Applause).

An new era of peace will allow us to spend more money here at home to make sure no American goes to bed hungry , make our education system the best in the world, and make sure we can make sure every American has Healthcare because Healthcare is a right, not a privilege (Standing Ovation). We can also create a more equitable society so we can make sure every American regardless of their race or gender has a chance to succeed in this nation(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America.

Polls After Convention:

Dark Color = Lead of Greater than 12 point
Light Color = Lead between 6-12 points
No Color = Within 6 Points

Goldwater/Rhodes 362 54%
McCarthy/Bayh 78  41%
Tossup 98

[OSR stands with Israel]

New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller Endorses President Goldwater :




Howard K Smith: Governor Rockefeller, thanks for coming on. I heard you are coming on to announce who you will vote for in November, so who will it be

Rockefeller: I have decided to vote for President Goldwater

Smith: Why

Rockefeller: Well while I disagree with many of his policies on regulations, and things like block grants, the fact is he has done a good job in Vietnam , and I believe his policy towards China is correct as well. Another reason is that I dont think Senator McCarthy should be elected President and the reason for that is his foreign policy which I believe is Naive and totally the wrong direction we should move in.

First take his position on the military where he believes we should cut defense by over 30%. Well if we do that we wouldnt be able to contain communism at all. The idea that the Soviet Union would just back off because we do is completely naive and dangerous because the fact is they wouldnt and would instead use that opportunity to expand their empire even more.

So while I disagree with the President on many issues , he definitely would be the better President and that is why he must be reelected

Smith: Will you speak at the convention in Portland

Rockefeller: Depends on what they would want me to speak about

Smith: Ok thanks for coming on , Governor Rockefeller

Rockefeller: Pleasure's mine

[Pericles]

Interesting that there's no major third-party bid since there seems like there'd be a good bloc of voters(not enough to win at least in a First Past the Post system though, which might be the reason why) that would find both candidates to be bad fits. Still looks like Goldwater will win in a landslide, perhaps McCarthy will avoid McGovern's blunders and lose somewhat more respectably.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Interesting that there's no major third-party bid since there seems like there'd be a good bloc of voters(not enough to win at least in a First Past the Post system though, which might be the reason why) that would find both candidates to be bad fits. Still looks like Goldwater will win in a landslide, perhaps McCarthy will avoid McGovern's blunders and lose somewhat more respectably.

Well in OTL not center-left candidate entered the race as a third party candidate even though McGovern was the nominee and along with the fact that foreign policy was a huge issue in those days ensures Liberal Republicans wont run a third party.

McCarthy's foreign policy just scares too many people and that keeps Liberals in the GOP from running a third-party candidate .

[Pericles]

Interesting that there's no major third-party bid since there seems like there'd be a good bloc of voters(not enough to win at least in a First Past the Post system though, which might be the reason why) that would find both candidates to be bad fits. Still looks like Goldwater will win in a landslide, perhaps McCarthy will avoid McGovern's blunders and lose somewhat more respectably.

Well in OTL not center-left candidate entered the race as a third party candidate even though McGovern was the nominee and along with the fact that foreign policy was a huge issue in those days ensures Liberal Republicans wont run a third party.

McCarthy's foreign policy just scares too many people and that keeps Liberals in the GOP from running a third-party candidate .

Ah ok, guess that makes sense. Ironic that Barry Goldwater would be the 'safe' candidate on foreign policy given what happened irl, but within this scenario it is a good touch and seems plausible.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of the 1972 RNC:

Major Speakers At Convention and Summary of their Speeches:



Rhodes: Thank You, Thank You . 4 years ago in Miami Beach I had the honor of being named this party's nominee for the Vice Presidency, and then had the honor to serve this great nation as your Vice President and working a long side a great man and great President, Barry Goldwater(Applause). Now while we have made much progress over the past 4 years, we still have a long way to go and that is why I will accept the Vice Presidential Nomination witht he same determination and enthusiam here in Portland as I had in Miami Beach 4 years ago(Applause).

4 years when I stood to you, our nation was still in the middle of one of the longest wars in our nation's history , our economy was on the brink of recession, and we had seen the worst riots on our streets this century but thanks to the leadership of President Goldwater our economy is once again booming, the war in Vietnam has ended and law and order has been restored(Applause). Now our opponents believe all this happened due to coincidence(laughter) , and says we need to give the keys of power back to them(Laughter). Well all I have to say is no it hasnt been a concidence, and if we want to make our nation greater than it ever has been we need to continue and expand the President's Tax Policy, pass regulatory reform , shrink the size of the Federal Government(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Excerpts of Goldwater's speech accepting the Republican party renomination  for President of the United States:



Goldwater: Thank You, Thank You. I am honored to have the opportunity to be the nominee of this great party once again, and I accept your nomination(Applause) . Over the past 4 years our nation has made lots of progress from ending the war in Vietnam with Honor to reforming the unfair tax code , getting rid of terrible regulations, and giving back power to the states and local governments in the form of block grants but we still have lots of progress yet to make.(Applause).

The reason for that is there are still many parts of our tax code which remain unfair and ineffective, the size of the federal establishment is still way to big and bloated, and the threat of Communism remains as visible as ever and now is not the time to move back in a direction which believes all these problems are not even problems(Standing Ovation). It was not belief in the free market and small government that caused the problems our nation faced in the 1960s, it was the belief in the idea that the federal government was the solution to the problems we faced(Standing Ovation).

The reason our nation was so great and achieved so much for so many years was because our nation was the first nation to believe in the idea that the people are what make a nation great not its government(Applause). Over the past 4 years, bureaucrats, special interests groups and proponents of big government have been united in their hatred of me and all I can say is that I welcome their hatred(Standing Ovation) . I want to end by saying that I know that if we come together we can show these groups that it is The American People not them who control this nation's destiny  and I am more certian than ever that our nation's best days our ahead of us(Applause). Thank You , May God Bless You , May God Bless America

Polls After Convention:

Dark Color = Lead of Greater than 10 points
Light Color = Lead between 5-10 points
No Color = Within 5 Points

Goldwater/Rhodes 392 56%
McCarthy/Bayh 37  39%
Tossup 109

[OSR stands with Israel]

Debate Schedule Released After Candidates agree to set of two Presidential Debates and one Vice Presidential Debate:

1st Debate(Domestic and Economic Policy):

Date: October 6th, 1972
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Venue: Duggal Greenhouse
Moderator: Lawrence Spivak , NBC News

Vice Presidential Debate:

Date: October 16th, 1972
Location: Sioux City, Iowa
Venue: Orpheum Theater
Moderator: Howard K Smith, ABC News

2nd Debate(Foreign Policy) :

Date: October 27th, 1972
Location: San Francisco, California
Venue: Palace of Fine Arts
Moderator: Mike Wallace, CBS News


McCarthy and Goldwater's campaigns throw barbs at each other as election campaign enters new phase  



Brinkley: Senator Eugene McCarthy in a rally today offered some of his strongest rebuke of the Goldwater administration in sharp populist liberal terms calling it an administration of the rich, by the rich and for the rich along with of the warmongers, by the war mongers and for the war mongers. The McCarthy campaign knows in order to have any hopes of victory in November they will need to win by large margins in big cities in the North East and Midwest, in Appalachia, among young voters and to make inroads in blue-collar percent of the major suburbs.

The President did not directly attack Senator McCarthy , instead campaigning on their record over the past 4 years and how they plan to expand upon it in the next 4. On the other hand Secretary of State Nixon and rising star in the party Senator Jack Kemp of New York went after the Senator Hard,
especially on his foreign policy . If the President wins New York it would instantly make Senator Jack Kemp the third most influential conservative in the nation and a future presidential or Vice Presidential Candidate.

Recent Polls:

Dark Color = Lead of Greater than 10 points
Light Color = Lead between 5-10 points
No Color = Within 5 Points

Goldwater/Rhodes 392 56%
McCarthy/Bayh 64  40%
Tossup 109

Brinkley: The National Numbers havent changed much but the race has changed in Pennsylvania where Senator McCarthy has taken a 6 point lead over the President and it will be the first time in this campaign that the Senator has polled better in Pennsylvania than New York. One poll to concern the Democrats is the House Generic Ballot as it could indicate the GOP taking over the chamber come November.

House Generic Ballot:

Republicans: 49%
Democrats: 47%

[President Johnson]

At this point, it would be better if Goldwater wins a second term and the Democrats start to rebuild the party and come up with a strong candidate in 1976. Someone like Frank Church or Reubin Askew.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Senate Seats with the Potential of Flipping:



Chancellor: As you may know the current balance in the Senate stands at an even 50 Republicans to 50 Democrats which means each and every senate race will be important as even one pick up could give either party control of the chamber. So David what are the competitive seats

Brinkley: Well we have many seats that could potentially flip so lets start with the vulnerable Republican Held seats
Vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats:
Colorado: Senator Gordon Allot(R) vs State Representative Floyd Haskell(D) - Tossup
Deleware: Senator J. Caleb Boggs(R) vs City Councilman Joe Biden(D)- Lean Republican Hold
Iowa:  Senator Jack Miller(R) vs Mr. Richard Clark(D) - Lean Democratic Gain
Kentucky: Governor Loui Nunn(R) vs State Senator Walter Huddleson(D)- Tossup
Maine: Senator Margaret Chase Smith(R) vs State Representative William Hathaway(D) - Tossup
Montana: Senator Tim Boback(R) vs Governor Forrest Anderson(D) - Lean Republican Hold
South Dakota: Mr.Robert Hirsech(R) vs Representative James Abouresk- Lean Democratic Gain

Vulnerable Democratic-Held Senate Seats:
Georgia: State Representative Sam Nunn(D) vs Former Representative Bo Callaway(R)- Tossup
New Hampshire: Senator Thomas McIntyre vs Governor Walter Peterson(R)- Lean Democratic Hold
New Mexico: State Representative Jack Daniels(D) vs Mayor Pete Domenici(R) - Lean Republican Gain
North Carolina: Mr.Jesse Helms(R) vs Congressman Nick Galifianakis(D)- Lean Republican Gain
Virginia: Governor Richard Poff(R) vs Senator William Sprong(D)- Lean Republican Gain

Chancellor: So there are potentially 12 seats which we can say have a chance of flipping 7 held by the Republicans, and 5 held by the Democrats which means that the Democrats will have a few ore pathways to get to a majority than the Republicans do

Brinkley: They have more pathways but if you go to a pure tossup map that would give the Democrats and Republicans 48 seats and if Goldwater wins in a landslide in November that could push the Republicans over the top . So I would say its about even when it comes to the Senate

Chancellor: I agree

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Fun fact, when Joe Biden ran IOTL, he was considered a sacrificial lamb and wasn't supposed to actually win.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Fun fact, when Joe Biden ran IOTL, he was considered a sacrificial lamb and wasn't supposed to actually win.

Oh , Ill just flip the ratings in CO and DE

[OSR stands with Israel]

Key Moments of the First Debate:



Key Moment 1:

Spivak: Senator McCarthy you have said if you were elected you have called the Goldwater Tax Reform a terrible piece of legislation. If you are president what would be your alternative to the Goldwater Tax Reform

McCarthy: Well the firstly I dont believe there has to be broad tax reform because our tax system prior to the Goldwater tax cuts for the rich worked well for over 3 decades. We created the strongest middle class in the history of the world with that tax code with the tax code we had prior to the tax reform. So the first thing I would do is repeal that piece of legislation then give families who make under $17,500 a year a 10% tax cut to make sure taxes on working and middle class families dont go up. This plan also would bring back many of the deductions working-class families benefited from so If I am president that is what I would do.

Goldwater: Senator McCarthy plan would raise taxes on many working class families in our nation. First he forgets that our plan doubled the standard deduction which means that many poor and working-class families not only got a tax cut they now no longer have to pay taxes and can use that money to better provide for their families. Senator McCarthy also forgets that this plan got rid of many tax shelters and deductions special interests benefit from so yes Senator McCarthy this reform didnt fix all the problems we have with the tax code but took a major step in that direction. The fact is more and more economists now have come out and praised tax reform and have say that the solution of reducing tax rates while getting rid of loopholes in the tax system is the best way to help grow our economy and we did just that in 1969.

McCarthy: More economists have come out in favor of that plan but more economists have also come out against it. Also the fact is the president just mentioned doubling the standard deduction yes thats true but he also cut government programs poor families benefit for as well which hurts poor families more than his tax cut helps them.

Spivak: Moving on


Important Moment 2:

S[ivak: Senator Goldwater you have repeatedly called for regulatory reform in your presidency. If you are reelected would you once again make it a priority in your administration

Goldwater: Absolutely the fact is our current regulatory state has gone out of control . While I have taken many actions on the issue, there is so much a president can do and we need the congress to pass a piece of legislation addressing regulatory reform. The reason for it is right now we have unelected bureaucrats in Washington who use their regulatory powers to de facto create laws and I believe that is a total subversion of the constitution so my belief is we have to limit their authority to pass such regulations and create a better check and balance system for regulations so we can make sure that laws are only created by elected representatives and their is a way to stop bad regulations from being implemented .

McCarthy: Once again the President proves why he is the President for rich people. The fact is the regulatory state has protected the workers from being exploited by elitists, procted our envirornment, helped stop monopolies from forming again and protected our economy from crashing again.

Goldwater: Once again Senator McCarthy leaves at a key point and that was congress passed laws in many of those cases. For example it was Congress who passed laws against child labor , unsafe labor , against trusts and to protect the environment. The fact is these buercrats unlike memebers of Congress cant be held accountable by the voters so the fact is their power should be curbed and returned to the people.


Key Moment 3:

Spivak: Senator McCarthy you have denounced the President's Block Grant plan and have said you plan to resume and expand the Great Society. Can you explain how you plan too

McCarthy: My plan is simple we need to repeal his block grant plan as what it does is give states the authority to gut welfare programs that would be impossible for congress to gut. Then I would also declare a war on hunger and expand Healthcare for all and we will use the money saved from closing overseas bases , cutting military spending, and repealing the Goldwater tax cuts for the rich to fund it. It is a disgrace that we have even one person going to bed hungry at night or not getting Healthcare because their poor and If I am elected I can promise you I will work hard to make sure we can fix those problems.

Goldwater: What the Senator once again said is not true , the fact is the block grant plan does not give states the authority to gut these programs. What they do is let the states and local municipalities spend the money in ways that would help the unique problems faced in their own cities and states. A one sized solution all will not fix these problems and all they will do is make the Federal Government bigger while the block grant proposal would make sure tax player money is spent more efficiently.

McCarthy: Well a report just came out that many states have used technicalities to gut these programs and secondly the fact is the money hasnt been distributed in ways that would best let the states solve these problems even if we have to. It is clear in my opinion we have to be agressive at solving these problems and that is why I am elected President we will declare a war on Hunger and pass Universal Healthcare.




McCarthy standing in polls improve after Debate:

Dark Color = Lead of Greater than 10 points
Light Color = Lead between 5-10 points
No Color = Within 5 Points

Goldwater/Rhodes 362 54%
McCarthy/Bayh 115  42%
Tossup 61

[OSR stands with Israel]

Key Moments of the Vice Presidential Debate:



Key Moment 1:

Smith: Senator Bayh if you were elected to the Vice Presidency what role would you play in a potential McCarthy administration.

Bayh: While we haven't finalized any specific roles I would play, some of the roles we have discussed is me helping the President implement policies such as education, labor and civil liberties. I also would attend every single cabinet meeting and advise the President on numerous issues which comes up in meetings . I believe my term as Senaotr would give me the experience needed to work with a President McCarthy on all these issues.

Rhodes: Well the fact is that I dont believe just being in the Senate for 6 years qualifies you for the job as that is only one term and means that the voters believed you didnt do a good enough job to be reelected. Also I totally disagree with the Senator point on the Vice President as I do believe its important for the Vice President to be deeply involved with one issue. The President does not have the time to do everything so it is your job as VP to help him accomplish important priorities the President cant address at the moment. For example over the last 4 years I helped the President in areas such as the budget and in crafting a realistic block grant proposal.

Key Moment 2:

Smith : Governor Rhodes you have made it a point in this campaign that you would propose tax reform again. Why do we need on just so quickly after the past one and does that shoe the past bill was a failure.

Rhodes: Well its because the 69 tax reform was the first major step and just because you have taken you first major step doesnt mean you have finished climbing the stairs yet. It is the belief of the President and I the current system currently is still filled with too many loopholes, special interest failures, and stifles economic growth and if you reelect the President he will work to pass tax reform 2.0 to get rid of these problems once and for all.

Bayh: The fact is pretty simple the reason it needs to be reformed is because the tax cuts have been a failure. What needs to be done is a repeal for this bill in exchange for cutting taxes for workers in this nation . What we dont need is another tax cut for the wealthiest among us who dont even need the break , but we do if we want to make our education and healthcare system better. The President tax reform plan results in massive budget cuts to programs that benefit the working class and that shouldnt go anyway.


Rhodes: The fact is the high tax system id not benefit the working class, inflation was higher and consumer confidence 4 years ago and now its the opposite so I would say it has worked. Does it need more better changes yes but repealing the reform would be a huge mistake and I hope they didnt make it if they get power again?



Key Moment 3:


Smith: Senator Bayh , as you know Senator  McCarthy has called for a 25%-30% cut in military spending to pay for things like  expanding education and healthcare.  Even with this cut our nation would spend more money on the military than any other nation and we still would be in the lead after these cuts. The fact is the strength of our nation will be defined by its economic success and pasing bills like education reform, healthcare reform and infrastructure can be done.


Rhodes: This type of isolationism is dangerous and would greatly benefit the Soviets. We cant cut military by anywhere near that amount because that would mean a withdrawal of many troups from West Germany which would result in the Soviets taken over maybe all of Eastern and parts of central Europe.


Bayh: Again that is untrue because we would spend more on the military than any other nation on earth.It is time to heed the words of Former President Eisenhower and fight the military industrial complex to move our nation in a new direction


Polls Barely Move After Debate:

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of 2nd Presidential Debate:



Key Moment 1:

Wallace: Senator McCarthy you have said multiple times on the campaign trail that if you were to be elected President you would propose in your next budget to cut defense spending by 30%. How do you respond to critics who call your proposal a naive and unrealistic plan which would make our nation less safe.

McCarthy: Well its pretty simple, one that would avoid our nation to be drawn into conflicts that we dont need to be involved in like Vietnam , and two allow us to spend money to solve problems here at home. The fact is we have many problems here at homes such as healthcare and hunger and if I am elected I would use that money we currently use on the military for programs that would directly benefit the American people

Goldwater: The fact is Senator McCarthy again has this very naive and dangerous belief that if we withdraw from the world the Soviet Union would also decide to stop their expansionist foreign policy. The fact is the Soviets have made it clear that they want at the very least take over all of Europe and if we implement the Senator's cuts we would have no choice but to withdraw most of our troops from West Germany and that would make our allies vulnerable to  an attack which then would force us into a hot war with the Russians and the beginning of World War 3. The reason we have avoided is due to a strong presence of American force around the world which sends a message that such aggression won't be  tolerated and everyone who has run for President no matter if they were a Republican or Democrats, Conservative or Liberal has understood that but somehow Senator McCarthy does not.

McCarthy: What the President said is just not true if we prioritize which bases to close.We can easily cut defense by 30% without sacrificing national security and I would never make such a cut that would jeopardize our national security.

Goldwater: Senator, Almost every independent expert on foreign affairs have said that it would be impossible to defend our allies in Western Europe with those types of cuts . All your doing here is denying the facts so your idealistic world view can be a reality even though all the evidence point to your ideas being fiction.

Wallace: Moving On

Key Moment 2:

Wallace: President Goldwater, you have claimed over and over that you want an arms control treaty with the Soviets but many critics point out that you have escalated tensions between our nations so how can we get it now with such tensions.

Goldwater: Those two positions are not at all contractionary, as we are saying we want to deescalate tensions but at the same time we will not under any circumstances tolerate Soviet or Communist Aggression. Secondly, the fact is the best way to get to peace is by showing strength because the aggressor will otherwise have no intention to negotiate with you unless they understand that they have just as much to lose if not more than we do.

McCarthy: Well the fact is the President has not in good faith negotiated a arms control agreement. If I am elected President I will make it a top priority of my administration to reduce our nuclear stockpile and get the Soviets to reduce theirs so we can avoid the chances of nuclear war. This era of no negotiations have failed and it is time to move in a new direction so we can move on from living in the fear of nuclear war.

Goldwater: Unilateral disarmament wont reduce the chances of nuclear war it will just increase the chances of the Soviets bullying us all around the world. What we need is an agreement that would reduce both our nation's stockpile and would enforce independent agencies verify that terms have been set. Yes such negotiations s take time but we are making progress and if you reelect me I can promise we would pass such an agreement.

McCarthy: The President has had 4 years to get an agreement and failed, its clear giving him another 4 years wont change anything, but I can promise to you if you elect me I will.

Key Moment 3:

Wallace: This is a question to be answered by both of you. What is the key lessons our nation should learn from Vietnam? Senator McCarthy you first

McCarthy: That we should not get involved in conflicts that dont involve us, and we should do all in power to solve our problems using diplomatic means not militarily.

Goldwater: That if we get involved in a war we should go into it with the goal of winning and use overwhelming force to achieve a goal. After 4 and a half years of the Johnson administration bungling the war by putting us in but not doing what is required of us to win the war it seemed their was no end to the stalemate, but the stalemate did end when we moved to a strategy of doing whatever it takes to win the war and we did.

Wallace: Ok I have one quick follow up, what is your opinion on giving amnesty to those who dodged the draft

McCarthy: I support it , the war was immoral and people shouldnt be forced to fight in such a war.

Goldwater: I totally disapprove of it, the fact is while kids in their communities went to serve this nation they decided to break the law and  for that their should be no amnesty given.


Goldwater takes 15 point lead in polls debate:

Dark Color = Lead of Greater than 8 points
Light Color = Lead between 4-8 points
No Color = Within 4 Points

Goldwater/Rhodes 396 56%
McCarthy/Bayh 78  41%
Tossup 61

[OSR stands with Israel]

Final Pre-Election Analysis:

Dark Color = Lead of Greater than 8 points
Light Color = Lead between 4-8 points
No Color = Within 4 Points

Goldwater/Rhodes 404 57%
McCarthy/Bayh 37  39%
Tossup 97


Chancellor: Ever since the Foreign policy Debate the Goldwater campaign was able to halt the McCarthy momentum and take back the lead they held before the debates. David how are states like New York and Pennsylvania look like

Brinkley: Both for much of the campaign both the states looked like would go for Senator McCarthy but in the past few days both the states are now pure tossups, McCarthy is up 48%-47%  in New York and in Pennsylvania its tied 49%-49%.

In New York we know that New York City is strongly Democratic while Upstate New York and Long Island are strongly Republican so the question really is which party can win bigger in there strong holds. The Goldwater campaign believes that a big win in Staten Island and getting around 43-44% in Queens is what they need to win the state . McCarthy believes as long as they can win over 60% in Queens they will probably win New York so an early sign to find out what will happen in New York state is too look at Queens as if McCarthy wins over 60% we can say New York will be won by him, if Goldwater gets over 43% we probably can say that he would win New York .

In Pennsylvania, the Democratic strongholds are Philadelphia, Scranton and in Pittsburgh and generally South West Pennsyvania the while the Republican Strong Holds are the Philidelphia Suburbs and Central Pennsylvania. Mercer County is a county which we say is a complete unknown and Erie only tilts to Senator McCarthy. I would say a good indicator too tell if this state will go to Senator McCarthy or not is when West Virginia is called if it is called at polling time Pennsylvania probably will go narrowly for McCarthy , if it is called around half and hour after poll closing times Pennslyvania eill go down to the wire and a few thousand votes, if it is called after an hour after polls in WV close Pennsylvania likely will be a narrow win for the GOP.


Chancellor: What about other states why is McCarthy doing so bad in Illinois and Michigan in the polls

Brinkley: Well Illinois is because many state polls show the Presidents raw vote margin will be larger in the Collar Counties than Senator McCarthy's will be in Cook and Downstate Illinois being solidly Republican will make it impossible for the Democrat to pull it of. In Michigan, it comes down to huge swings from 1968 to the Republicans in Detroit Suburbs.

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC News: Election Night 1972(Part 1)



7:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brinkley: Good Evening and Welcome to NBC News's coverage of the 1972 Presidential Election. After what has been the longest presidential election campaign in our history, it is finally election day and we will find out who our President for the next 4 years will be , who will control Congress for the next two years, and much more . We have already been able to project that the States of Indiana and Kentucky will be won by President Goldwater and with several states having their polls close this hour we can project the President will win the states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina , Virginia, New Hampshire and Vermont by comfortable margins.

Goldwater 78
McCarthy 0

Chancellor: And in the Senate we can project that in Virginia Republican candidate Governor Richard Poff has won and will become the first Republican to be a senator from Virginia since reconstruction. Kentucky and Georgia are too close to call at the moment .

Brinkley: Lets go over to Lawrence Spivak who will tell us what our exit polls are showing

Spivak: These are what our nationwide exit polls has shown

Race:
White Voters: 89% ; Goldwater 65% McCarthy 35%
Black Voters: 9%; McCarthy 91% Goldwater 9%

Gender:
Women Voters: 51% ; Goldwater 56% McCarthy 44%%
Men Voters: 49% ; Goldwater 62% McCarthy 38%

Where People Live:

Urban Areas: 30% ; McCarthy 58% Goldwater 42%
Suburban Areas: 41%: Goldwater 65% McCarthy 35%
Rural Areas: 29% : Goldwater: 66% McCarthy 34%

Income Level:

Less than $5000; 17% ; McCarthy 59% Goldwater 41%
$5000-$20000; 59% ; Goldwater 55% McCarthy 45%
More than $20000; 24% ; Goldwater 61% McCarthy 39%

Age:

18-21: 9%; Goldwater 52% McCarthy 48%
22-44: 52%; Goldwater 60% McCarthy 40%
45-65: 28%; Goldwater 59% McCarthy 41%
Over 65; Goldwater 55% McCarthy 45%

Goldwater's Approval Rating

Approve: 56%
Disapprove: 43%

Chancellor: What it looks like from that exit poll is that many people who disapprove of the President went out and voted for him, the suburbs are going fast and the youth vote did not go for Senator McCarty despite being his strength in the primaries although it was his best group.

7:30

Chancellor: Its 7:30 in the east and NBC news can project that the states of Ohio and North Carolina will be won by President Goldwater and in West Virginia we are unable to currently make a projection.

Goldwater 116
McCarthy 0

Brinkley: NBC News can also project that in North Carolina the Republican Jesse Helms has won and will become the first Republicans senator from the state in 70 years. So far tonight the Republicans have picked up 2 Senate seats

Spivak : Well Ohio and North Carolina are no surprise but West Virginia not being called spells bad news for the McCarthy camp in Pennsylvania.

Brinkley: Yes Senator McCarthy needs a strong showing in Western Pennsylvania to win and a win at polling time in WV probably would have meant he would have gotten it. He still may but we are less sure now about it.


7:50

Brinkley: NBC News is now able to project that Senator McCarthy will win West Virginia and its 6 Electoral Votes.

Goldwater 116
McCarthy 6

Brinkley: With WV being called not at polling time but before the 8:00 polling does increase the hopes of the McCarthy camp of carrying Pennsylvania but it probably will be decided by a few thousand votes.

[President Johnson]

McCarthy will get blown out. I wonder whether Goldwater cracks 60% of the popular vote.

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC News: Election Night 1972(Part 2)



8:00:

Brinkley: It's 8 PM in the East and polls have closed in many more states and NBC News can project that President Goldwater will win the states of Kansas, Oklahoma , Texas , Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri , Illionis, Michigan, Deleware , New Jersey and Maine while Senator McCarthy will win the States of Massachusetts and the District of Columbia. Right now we are unable to make a projection in Pennsylvania,  Maryland and in Connecticut.

Goldwater 266
McCarthy 23

Brinkley: That means the President is only 4 electoral votes away from being reelected as President of the United States

Chancellor: Looking at our exit polls some of the numbers the President is getting across the south is astonishing: he is getting over 70% of the vote throughout the deep south including 80% in Mississippi and even in other southern states he is getting an astonishing 70% of the vote in Florida, and nearly 68% in Texas.

Brinkley: Yes it astonishing but even outside the south the President is getting 59% of the vote in Ohio, 57% in Illinois and 55% in Michigan. Just stunning numbers .


Lawrence Spivak : In the House the numbers dont look good for the Democrats either and its now looking very likely the Republicans will take over the chamber come January. We are no where ready to call it but at this point I see more paths that lead to a Republican Majority than a Democratic one.

In the Senate battleground races, we are unable to make a projection in New Hampshire, Maine or Deleware at this moment.

Breaking News: Barry Goldwater Re-Elected

8:30:

Brinkley: NBC News can now project that due to the President winning the state of Arkansas he will have surpassed the 270 electoral vote threshold and we can say officially that Barry Morris Goldwater will be Re-Elected President of the United States.

Goldwater 272
McCarhty 23

Chancellor: Well the results were no surprise as that is what the polling indicated but the fact is there is a possibility that he may sweep a Republican House into power with it. Right now our forecasts show the Republicans getting anywhere from 213-237 seats in the House with the Democrats getting anywhere from 198-222 seats. The range is still pretty large but the trend line is clearly going in the favor of the GOP tonight. They are making substantial let me repeat substantial gains in the South and many many Democrats are blaming the McCarthy ticket for these losses as many of the Democrats from the South who are going down in defeat could have probably hung on if the Democrats could get 38 ,39, 40% down south which McCarthy is coming now where near doing.

Spivak: With us now is Senator  Henry Jackson on his thoughts of the election

Jackson: Well to me its a clear rejection of the Direction our party has gone in the past 4 years and we have seen the results bore out more and more: With us losing the Presidency 4 years ago the Senate two years ago and now it looks like we will be losing the House as well so next January the President and the Republicans will have full control of the US government.

In my opinion, it is clear from these results that we have to change course or else we could go down the same path Republicans did in the 1930s where the party basically entered a decades long spell in the political wilderness that they are only in the past 4  years have gotten out of . Most of America still supports our party its just that our party has gone off the wrong course and this election should be a wake up call because if we dont wake up to this reality soon it could be too late by the time we do wake up to it.

Spivak: Thanks Senator Jackson for coming on

[OSR stands with Israel]

NBC News: Election Night 1972(Part 3)



9:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ8dPRhuE1s&t=145s

Brinkley: Its 9 in the East and NBC News can now project more states for President Goldwater. We can project that the President will win the states of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado , Wyoming , North and South Dakota,  Nebraska, Louisiana, and Connecticut  . We can also project that Senator McCarthy will win his home state of Minnesota. Currently we are unable to make a projection in New York, Wisconsin or Rhode Island

Goldwater 322
McCarthy 33


Chancellor : In Key Senate Races we are able to project that in South Dakota the Democratic Candidate  Representative James Abouresk will be the next senator from the state, in Georgia State Representative Sam Nunn has won and in New Mexico the Republican candidate Mayor Pete Domenici has won. The overall Republican gain for the night has stayed at 2

Brinkley: Lawrence How are the governor races going so far

Spivak: Well so Far Democrats have made gains in Vermont where Mr.Thomas Salmon has won while the Republicans have made a gain in Missouri where state auditor Kit Bond has won. They have also made critical holds in Texas and in West Virginia two states Democrats thought they could win but in Texas Governor Paul Eggers won reelection by a 13 point margin and in West Virginia Governor Arch Moore defeated Jay Rockefeller in a close race .  The reason for that is that Texas is becoming a Republican state fast and a strong one at that while in West Virginia Arch Moore is a pretty popular governor due to his achievements on the issue of infrastructure .

Two states which are very close though are Deleware and Illionis and right now the Democrats are the favorite in both those races.

Brinkley: We have heard that Senator McCarthy has conceded the race to the President and will give his concession speech in slightly more than an hour and the President will give his victory speech shortly after that.


9:34:

Brinkley: We are now able to project that Rhode Island and its 4 Electoral Votes will be won by Senator Eugene McCarthy

Goldwater 322
McCarthy 37


Brinkley: Now we will send it to your local stations so you can get the results of your local races