Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

In Japan you have to write the name of the candidate you are voting for versus checking off a list of candidates.

 




This is why if you run as an independent you better be sure you have name recognition.

[jaichind]

The day after HP nominated 192 candidates, 2 of them were withdrawn (both choosing to run as independents) and 9 more were nominated to a net number of 199 HP candidates.

[Zanas]

Seldom has there been a more fitting acronym for a new party than HP.

Also, DP seemed to be getting Macronned, but with the creation of CDP they may be a bit better than Hamon at fighting back, we'll see.

Anyway, fascinating stuff.

[jaichind]

Now I seen the prelim candidates (there will be more) I can take a first crack at what the FPTP seats would look like for LDP-KP by prefecture in best and worst cases for LDP-KP.  I will have the 2014 LDP-KP seat count from 2014 but take into account that several Independents and FPG winners have joined LDP and I will count them retroactively as LDP wins.  

Prefecture              Seats         2014 LDP-KP       2017 LDP-KP
                                                   wins                  wins
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
北海道Hokkaido         12                    9                    3-10
青森   Aomori             3                     4                        3    (Aomori lost a seat from 2014)            
岩手    Iwate              3                     1                        1    (Iwate lost a seat from 2014)        
宮城   Miyagi              6                     5                     4-5        
秋田   Akita                3                     3                     1-3    
山形   Yamagata         3                     3                     2-3    
福島   Fukushima       5                      3                    2-3                  
茨城   Ibaraki             7                     5                    5-6                            
栃木   Tochigi             5                     4                     3-4
群馬   Gunma            5                      5                     4-5      
埼玉   Saitama         15                    13                   8-13                      
千葉   Chiba             13                    11                   9-12              
神奈川Kanagawa       18                   15                  11-16          
山梨   Yamanashi       2                      1                        1
東京   Tokyo             25                    23                   4-22
新潟   Niigata             6                      5                    2-3                        
富山   Toyama            3                      3                       3                              
石川   Ishikawa          3                      3                    2-3    
福井   Fukui               2                      2                       2    
長野   Nagano            5                      3                       3                          
岐阜   Gifu                 5                      5                       5    
静岡   Shizuoka          8                      6                    5-6    
愛知   Aichi              15                      8                    6-9            
三重   Mie                  4                     3                        2  (Mie lost a seat from 2014)          
滋賀   Shiga               4                     4                    2-4    
京都   Kyoto               6                     4                    2-3
大阪   Osaka            19                    13                    9-12
兵庫   Hyōgo            12                    10                  11-12
奈良   Nara                3                      3                    2-3   (Nara lost a seat from 2014)        
和歌山Wakayama       3                      2                       2
鳥取 Tottori                2                      2                      2
島根   Shimane           2                     2                       2    
岡山   Okayama          5                     5                       5
広島   Hiroshima         7                     6                    6-7
山口   Yamaguchi        4                     4                       4                              
徳島   Tokushima        2                      2                      2
高知   Kōchi               2                      2                      2    
香川   Kagawa            3                     2                    1-2                            
愛媛   Ehime              4                      4                      4                                
福岡   Fukuoka         11                    11                10-11    
佐賀   Saga                2                      1                     1                  
長崎   Nagasaki          3                      3                  2-3                                
熊本   Kumamoto        4                     5                  3-4   (Kumamoto lost a seat from 2014)    
大分   Ōita                  3                     2                  1-2
宮崎   Miyazaki           3                      3                    3      
鹿児島Kagoshima       4                       4                    3   (Kagoshima lost a seat from 2014)    
沖縄   Okinawa          4                       0                 0-1

So overall LDP-KP will most either gain a couple of seats to losing around 35 seats.  Most likely is somewhere in the middle.  On PR vote most likely it will be flat for LDP-KP or perhaps lose a couple of seats.  So medium guess for LDP-KP is to lose around 20 seats overall.

The election will be decided, as I explained before, in 北海道(Hokkaido), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 東京(Tokyo), 愛知(Aichi), 大阪(Osaka) and 埼玉(Saitama).  埼玉(Saitama) is also a Tokyo suburb prefecture which is the most anti-LDP of the Tokyo suburb prefectures.  There most of the DP have merged into HP and the Koike brand is playing out where there so the LDP is vulnerable if the Koike brand can translate into a swing away from LDP.

In 北海道(Hokkaido) a lot depends on if the de facto HP-CDP-JCP alliance actually holds on the ground and how much of a pro-LDP swing can LDP get from NPD going with LDP this time versus going with DPJ in 2014.

The big unknown is 東京(Tokyo).  It will be a 3 way battle between LDP-KP, HP=JRP and CDP-JCP.  Not clear how much of a swing Koike is able to generate from the LDP vote base in Tokyo toward her and how much of the old DP vote which defected en mass to Koike's TPFA will go to CDP-JCP.  Also unclear how the KP vote will go.  A lot of the HP candidates are total unknowns which could be a good thing if the election is a change election.  Results totally up in the air between a complete LDP collapse to a Koike meltdown.

[jaichind]

Despite PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) defecting to HP, PJK will continue on and will run on the PR slate of the election.  PJK will participate in the party leaders debate which will feature LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP and JCP.

[jaichind]

Kobe News did a poll for 神戸(Kobe) which is in 兵庫(Hyōgo) before DP merged into HP and the creation of CDP but after Koike came out to lead HP



65% oppose dissolution of Diet

PR vote are

LDP　　　　　　22.5％
KP      　　　　　2.8％
JRP                   8.8%
HP       　　　　16.7％
DP      　　　　　4.2％
SDP    　　　　　2.2％
LP                     0.7%
JCP  　　　　　　9.7％

If these results comes close to what is going on then this is ominous for LDP.  It shows both HP, JRP and JCP gaining ground and LDP-KP losing ground in a prefecture which should be a lock for LDP-KP.  Granted Kobe is not the same as 兵庫(Hyōgo) but I would be concerned if I were LDP to see these numbers.

[jaichind]

ニコニコ (NicoNico) which is Japanese version of Youtube came out with their first projection. Note that in 2014 and 2016 elections NicoNico were for both elections the most accurate of all the "professional" projections.

They have a solid LDP-KP victory but barely missing 2/3 majority even adding in pro-LDP independents. 



              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          202        64       266             33.0%
KP               9         25        34             13.5%
JRP            10         16        26             11.0%
HP             39         38        77             19.5%
CDP             6         11       17                7.5%
SDP             1           1         2                2.5%
JCP              0         21       21              12.0%
Ind(LDP)      6           0         6      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  16           0       16      (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465


Just like 週刊文春(Weekly Bunshun) projection they are pretty positive on the JRP PR vote which continues to be a surprise for me.  The PR vote shares looks right although I think HP and CDP would do a bit better and LDP and JRP should do a bit worse. 

[jaichind]

ニコニコ (NicoNico) track record on projections and actual result

2013
LDP   64->65
DPJ   16->17
JRP     7->8
KP    11->11
YP      8->8
PLP    2->0
JCP    8->8
 

2014
LDP  289->291
DPJ    72->73
KP     35->35
JIP     34->41
JCP    18->21
PFG    10->2
PLP      4->2


2016
LDP  55 -> 56
DP   30  -> 32
KP   12 -> 14
JCP  10  -> 6
ORA   7 -> 7

Given the strong record NicoNico has on predicting seat counts for LDP-KP in the past we should really view LDP-KP at around 300 seats to be the baseline prediction for now.

[jaichind]

In the 12 seats of 北海道(Hokkaido) it seems the disparate opposition parties worked out several separate deals to take on LDP.  

CDP and HP seems to worked out a deal where HP will run in 2nd 9th and 12th and back CDP everywhere else.  HOnly in 4th district will HP and CDP face each other.  CDP also worked out a deal with JCP where JCP will run in 2nd 7th 9th and 12th but back CDP everywhere else. It seems HP has indirectly agreed not to run in 7th where JCP is running.

So in 2nd 9th and 12th it will be LDP-KP vs HP vs JCP.  7th will be LDP-KP vs JCP.  And the rest will be LDP-KP vs CDP 1-on-1.  So in 8 out of the 12 districts the non-JCP oppositon will take on the LDP-KP 1-on-1 in a prefecture where it is clear that LDP-KP fall significantly below 50%.

Similar deals are being worked out in other prefectures with anti-LDP leans such as 滋賀(Shiga), 沖縄(Okinawa), 新潟(Niigata), and 大分(Ōita). It is taking place in Tokyo as well but there it is all out war between CDP-JCP vs HP-JRP and of course against LDP-KP.

This reminds me a lot of 1989 India when Center-Left JD worked out separate deals with the Right wing BJP on the one hand and the Left Front on the other hand to take on INC.  So in many seats it is just INC vs JD while in other it is INC vs BJP vs Left Front.  INC was defeated in part because the disastrous INC vs JD vs BJP vs Left Front was avoided across the board.

[jaichind]

島根(Shimane) branch of CDP merely just reused the old DP bus and did some re-painting of the bus sign



to

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/japan-s-koike-says-she-may-tax-cash-reserves-of-large-companies

Japan Opposition Unveils 'Yurinomics' Platform to Challenge Abe

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s opposition party said it may impose taxes on large companies’ cash reserves and permanently rid Japan of nuclear power as it unveiled a slew of campaign promises on Friday ahead of an Oct. 22 election.

In a manifesto dubbed “Yurinomics” -- a counter to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” platform highlighted by large injections of liquidity -- Koike vowed to freeze a consumption tax increase, end discrimination against homosexuals and protect abandoned pets. Her Party of Hope plans to maintain Abe’s unprecedented monetary easing for the time being, while working with the Bank of Japan to seek a smooth exit strategy.

[Lord Halifax]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/japan-s-koike-says-she-may-tax-cash-reserves-of-large-companies

Japan Opposition Unveils 'Yurinomics' Platform to Challenge Abe

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s opposition party said it may impose taxes on large companies’ cash reserves and permanently rid Japan of nuclear power as it unveiled a slew of campaign promises on Friday ahead of an Oct. 22 election.

In a manifesto dubbed “Yurinomics” -- a counter to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” platform highlighted by large injections of liquidity -- Koike vowed to freeze a consumption tax increase, end discrimination against homosexuals and protect abandoned pets. Her Party of Hope plans to maintain Abe’s unprecedented monetary easing for the time being, while working with the Bank of Japan to seek a smooth exit strategy.

Would that include gay marriage?

[jaichind]

RCP like political website go2senkyo.com had their own poll.  It was done around Oct 1 which was after Koike came out to lead HP but before DCP was created.

It had Abe Approval/Disapproval at 47/52.




They also had them broken down by region.  Clearly Northern Abe is going against Abe while Southern Japan is pro-Abe.


For PR vote it had

LDP ~35%
HP   ~30%

With Men LDP ~35 HP ~32 and women ~LDP 35 ~HP 27.  So clearly HP is attracting the men vote despite Koike's campaign to try to rope in the women's vote.

[jaichind]

In LDP strongholds, it seems HP are running candidates against Abe and his cronies but not against potential Abe rivals within the LDP.  It is a clear signal that she is out to get Abe but will work with LDP once Abe is out after getting a bloody nose from her.

[jaichind]

Interesting film made in 2007 about a political novice running in a city council by-election in 神奈川 (Kanagawa) for the LDP in late 2005.  Gives a good idea what a candidate experience is like in Japan elections.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ea2Jm4EmkKE&t=2076s&list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&index=1

Very funny he keeps on campaigning on "reform" but never gets to talk about any policies and what "reform" means.  But that makes sense since elections are very personality oriented. 

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/japan-s-koike-says-she-may-tax-cash-reserves-of-large-companies

Japan Opposition Unveils 'Yurinomics' Platform to Challenge Abe

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s opposition party said it may impose taxes on large companies’ cash reserves and permanently rid Japan of nuclear power as it unveiled a slew of campaign promises on Friday ahead of an Oct. 22 election.

In a manifesto dubbed “Yurinomics” -- a counter to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” platform highlighted by large injections of liquidity -- Koike vowed to freeze a consumption tax increase, end discrimination against homosexuals and protect abandoned pets. Her Party of Hope plans to maintain Abe’s unprecedented monetary easing for the time being, while working with the Bank of Japan to seek a smooth exit strategy.

Would that include gay marriage?

No.  Not even JCP will support that.  The most extreme Left position would be JCP's position of backing civil unions. The main battle-lines on marriage in Japan right now are "should the law that enforces that a married couple must use the same last name be abolished to allow the wife to use her maiden last name."    Most of the LDP caucus is against and most of DP caucus are for.   

[Lachi]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/japan-s-koike-says-she-may-tax-cash-reserves-of-large-companies

Japan Opposition Unveils 'Yurinomics' Platform to Challenge Abe

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s opposition party said it may impose taxes on large companies’ cash reserves and permanently rid Japan of nuclear power as it unveiled a slew of campaign promises on Friday ahead of an Oct. 22 election.

In a manifesto dubbed “Yurinomics” -- a counter to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” platform highlighted by large injections of liquidity -- Koike vowed to freeze a consumption tax increase, end discrimination against homosexuals and protect abandoned pets. Her Party of Hope plans to maintain Abe’s unprecedented monetary easing for the time being, while working with the Bank of Japan to seek a smooth exit strategy.

Would that include gay marriage?

No.  Not even JCP will support that.  The most extreme Left position would be JCP's position of backing civil unions. The main battle-lines on marriage in Japan right now are "should the law that enforces that a married couple must use the same last name be abolished to allow the wife to use her maiden last name."    Most of the LDP caucus is against and most of DP caucus are for.   

You know a country is backwards in marriage rights when a woman isn't even allowed to use her madien name.

[jaichind]

No.  Not even JCP will support that.  The most extreme Left position would be JCP's position of backing civil unions. The main battle-lines on marriage in Japan right now are "should the law that enforces that a married couple must use the same last name be abolished to allow the wife to use her maiden last name."    Most of the LDP caucus is against and most of DP caucus are for.   

You know a country is backwards in marriage rights when a woman isn't even allowed to use her madien name.

To be fair the law is gender neutral.  It just stipulates that a married couple must use the same last name without indicating that it has to be the husbands.  In fact several challenges to the law as gender discrimination has been turned back by the high courts pretty much saying "the law does not specify which last name that has to be used ergo it does not discriminate against women."  There have been isolated cases where a married couple uses the wife's last name.   It comes from a classical Chinese practice called 入贅 or matrilocality where a wealthy family without a son hires a husband for their daughter with the stipulation that he and their children take on the last name of the wife's family.    The Japanese have the same thing and while it is rare it takes place.  The law is written to allow for this custom as well.

[jaichind]

In 北海道(Hokkaido) due to de facto alliance between old Hokkaido LDP splinter NPD and LDP we have the spectacle of NPD founder 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) heading up thte NPD PR list while his daughter who joined LDP last year 鈴木貴子 (Suzuki Takako) heading up the LDP PR list.   鈴木貴子 (Suzuki Takako) ran in the 北海道(Hokkaido) 7th district in 2014 on the DPJ ticket given the DPJ-NPD alliance and lost but winning a PR seat.  She joined LDP hoping to run in the 7th district as the LDP candidate but the LDP incumbent from 2014 wanted to run for reelection so LDP negotiated a deal with 鈴木貴子 (Suzuki Takako)  where she will be at the top of the LDP PR list for 北海道(Hokkaido).

[jaichind]

A couple of stories on Japanese women politicians with scandals. 

In 埼玉(Saitama) 4th district the LDP incumbent  豊田真由子(Toyoda Mayuko) had to resign from the LDP a few month ago when video footage were leaked which showed her verbally and physically abusing her hapless aide.  LDP has nominated a candidate for the district but she will run as an independent as a LDP rebel.  If she wins and under the LDP rule "if you win you are LDP" she would be readmitted to the party as if the scandal never took place.

In 愛知(Aichi) 7th district the DP incumbent 山尾 志桜里 (Yamao Shiori) is running as an inexpedient with de facto support from HP CDP and JCP in the sense that none of them are running a candidate.  She was given a top role in the DP a month ago and had to resign from that role and DP when it came out that she, who is married, was having an affair with another married man.  It seems that if she gets to take on the LDP candidate 1-on-1 most likely she will win and this scandal will be forgotten. 

[jaichind]

Looks like long time LDP kingpin and heavyweight but now mostly has been, 中山 成彬(Nakayama Nariaki), husband of former PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) was given a HP PR seat slot after both he and his wife left PJK to join HP.   He has expressed displeasure at not been given a district to run in and it seems might quit HP.

[jaichind]

Yuriko Koike’s "12 zero" ‘zero policy’ pledges:

Zero nuclear power
Zero corporate cover ups
Zero corporate political donation
Zero children waiting for places in day care
Zero passive smoking
Zero packed commuter trains
Zero putting down of unwanted pets
Zero food waste
Zero violation of labour laws
Zero hay fever
Zero disabled and aged people unable to receive means of transport
Zero overhead power cables

She is also promising universal basic income (long term goal) and a tax on corporate balance sheets.

Sigh.   I cannot believe I have to back HP.  There is nothing for me to really back in this election.  Maybe JRP.  Too bad they cannot bring back YP.  Please let Abe get a bloody nose in this election so he can be kicked out of LDP leadership so I can go back to backing LDP.  

[jaichind]

In the international context the fall of DP and merging into HP and part of it forming CDP fits with the narrative of the crisis of the Center-Left and the onslaught of the populist Right.  If you use my chart on PR vote share in Japan since 2000 grouped by bloc.  Even if we plug in the most pro-CDP guesstimates of their vote share in 2017 you still get the lowest vote share for the Center-Left + JCP since 2000 and in fact since WWII.  In fact it will be 3% worse than 2013 which was the peak of the Abe onslaught and 4% worse than 2012 at the peak of the JRP surge and the collapse of the DPJ government.

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       45.00              29.00             14.00            12.00

[jaichind]

Night of Oct 8th there will be a debate of the 8 national party leaders (LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP JCP).  Abe and Koike will meet face to face.  CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) will have a chance to distinguish himself as a co-equal to Abe and Koike and create an impression that CDP-SDP-JCP is an alternative to LDP-KP and HP-JRP.

[jaichind]

Still 3 days left before the nominating period closes.  It seems CDP-SDP-JCP has a goal not having duplicate candidates in any of the districts.  They also are targeting to back various ex-DP independents which in many situations are de facto backed by HP as well.   There still are a lot of them for now so there are lots of deal-making between the 3 parties over the next couple of days to get their candidates to stand down.