European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

New EU election poll for Austria (Research Affairs/Ö24, 1.002 online interviews, Aug. 30-Sept. 5):





56% of voters say they will "definitely vote" in the EU election next year, which would be higher than the 45% who actually voted in the 2014 election.

Among the definite voters, the SPÖ is in fact ahead with 29% (ÖVP 25%, FPÖ 24%).

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/EU-Wahl-wird-Polit-Krimi/347753699

[TheSaint250]

Any reason why ÖVP is underperforming compared to national polling?

Also, i thought PILZ wasn't going to be running.

[Diouf]

CDA supports Weber. Buma tweeted: Het CDA steunt @ManfredWeber als Spitzenkandidaat voor de Europese verkiezingen van 2019. Hij heeft de afgelopen jaren zijn kwaliteiten bewezen als leider van de @EPP fractie en is als geen ander in staat om onze gemeenschappelijke waarden te beschermen.

[DavidB.]

CDA supports Weber. Buma tweeted: Het CDA steunt @ManfredWeber als Spitzenkandidaat voor de Europese verkiezingen van 2019. Hij heeft de afgelopen jaren zijn kwaliteiten bewezen als leider van de @EPP fractie en is als geen ander in staat om onze gemeenschappelijke waarden te beschermen.

Which means: The CDA supports Manfred Weber as leading candidate for the 2019 European elections. Over the course of the past years, he has proven his qualities as leader of the @EPP parliamentary group, and like no other, he is capable of protecting our common values.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What with the talk about Macron's attempt to create his own European Parliament grouping, everyone seems to have missed that Mélenchon seems to be trying to do the same thing. It seems to be the result of him getting pissed off with GUE/NGL refusing to expel SYRIZA for being sellouts and trying to launch his own Eurosceptic left-wing movement.

Utter vanity though this may be, it's probably still more interesting than what Varoufakis and Hamon are doing, given that it's made up of parties that are actually somewhat successful in their home countries and likely to win seats in the European Parliament. They would, however, need a seventh country for an EP group, and I'm not sure who that could be? Sahra Wagenknecht's movement is the natural missing link, but we're still not even sure if that will even contest elections. The Belgian PTB/PVDA, perhaps (though they might be a little too orthodox), or the Slovenian Left. One to watch, anyway.

[Umengus]

IFOP poll - France

30-31/08 (compared to 25-27/06)

En marche-Modem: 20 (-3)
FN : 17 (-2)
LR: 15 (=)
FI: 14 (+3)
Greens: 7,5 (+1,5)
DLF: 6,5 (+0,5)
PS: 6 (=)
Generation: 3 (=)
...

[Tender Branson]

Any reason why ÖVP is underperforming compared to national polling?

Also, i thought PILZ wasn't going to be running.

Not sure if I buy this poll ...

I would expect the ÖVP to do much better than that, around 35%.

Maybe it's because there are so many voting for "other" parties (5%), which seems unnaturally high. I don't expect many "other" parties to run next year, maybe the Communists - who will get 0.5% or something.

Austrians and other EU voters usually like to punish the governing parties, but ÖVP-FPÖ are still relatively new and successful, so why should the ÖVP get less than 30% next year ?

Also, LiPi decided against running in the 4 state elections this year, but will run in the EU elections next year.

[Ethelberth]

Conventionally, ÖVP has overperformed in EP elections, due their catholic Europhile electorate.

[Diouf]

No fluent French speaker, but this interview with Verhofstadt seems quite interesting.

From translated versions, it seems that ALDE has reached agreement with EnMarche, and that it will be announced in October. Perhaps with the name 'Génération Europe'. Verhofstadt seems to have accepted Macron's opposition to the "Spitzenkandidat" system after the transnational lists were rejected. He seems to say that this system means that it is Merkel picking the Commission leader. Interesting which influence this will get on the whole process. Verhofstadt also talks about setting a precondition for parties in this movement, that they run candidates from other countries as a way to create the transnational democracy, that wasn't created with the lists. And of course he talks a lot about the battle between Nationalists and Globalists etc, against Orban and Salvini etc.

Will be interesting to see whether the rightwing liberal parties (VVD, Venstre, ANO etc.) will take part in this endavour

https://www.ouest-france.fr/politique/elections/elections-europeennes/entretien-exclusif-le-liberal-verhofstadt-s-allie-avec-macron-aux-europeennes-5959435

[EPG]

It sounds to me like a coalition ("Chaque parti va garder ses symboles"), not much different to the old arrangement between the ALDE Party and Bayrou's EDP. As long as there's no element of so-called trans-European democracy (i.e. Franco-German pact), surely nobody will object to adding 15-20 French MEPs...

[Umengus]

Macron in free fall.

Odoxa poll 09/05-06 (internet)

good president: 29 (-12)
bad president : 71 (+12)

Among FI voters: 11 (-9)
PS voters: 25 (-2)
LaREM: 88 (-7)
LR: 25 (-23)
RN: 9 (-4)


Philippe

good PM: 35 (-5)
bad PM: 65 (+5)


"Adhesion" to

Hulot: 49 % (+13)
Flessel 30 % (=)
Sarkozy 29 (+2)
Juppé 28 (-3)
Melanchon 28 (+3)
Marion Maréchal: 25 (-1)
Marine Le Pen: 24 (=)
Hollande 22 (+1)
...
Wauquiez 16 (+1)
...

EU elections could be a protest vote against macron.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ calls Steve Bannon too extreme & doesn't want to co-operate with him for the EU elections:

"Austria’s far-right unwilling to collaborate with Steve Bannon"

https://www.timesofisrael.com/austrias-far-right-unwilling-to-collaborate-with-bannon

[Diouf]

Petra de Sutter has been nominated as spitzenkandidat by Groen. The 55-year old transgender professor of gynaecology currently sits in the Belgian Senate.

[Umengus]

The FPÖ calls Steve Bannon too extreme & doesn't want to co-operate with him for the EU elections:

"Austria’s far-right unwilling to collaborate with Steve Bannon"

https://www.timesofisrael.com/austrias-far-right-unwilling-to-collaborate-with-bannon

lol

Anyway, the odoxa poll for EU election:

Larem-Modem: 21,5
RN: 21

LR: 14
FI: 12

DLF: 6
Green: 5
PS: 4,5 (lol)
Hamon: 4
UDI (center): 3
Philippot: 1,5  (lol)

[Diouf]

Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič announced officially on Monday (17 September) his candidacy to be the leading candidate of his social-democrat political group in the campaign for the 2019 European elections.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/sefcovic-officially-enters-the-spitzenkandidaten-battle/

[Diouf]

Four Greens want to be Spitzenkandidaten



Four candidates have signed up to become Spitzenkandidat for the Greens. They are Petra De Sutter, Senator, nominated by Groen, Belgium; Bas Eickhout, MEP, nominated by GroenLinks, the Netherlands; Ska Keller, MEP, nominated by Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Germany; and Atanas Schmidt, business man, nominated by Zelena Partija, Bulgaria. The four candidates will now need to drum up support of at least 5 additional EU European Green Party member parties by 28 September to be able to proceed to the next phase. Then European Green Party delegates across Europe will then elect the two leading candidates at their next Council between 23-25 November in Berlin.

https://europeangreens.eu/content/four-greens-enter-race-become-european-green-party-leading-candidates

[Former President tack50]

Thinking about the Greens, since they are in an alliance with the EFA regionalists, why has no one from EFA tried to run? I could see someone from there being a good candidate.

Then again since the UK (and thus, the SNP and Plaid) is leaving, the EFA will be limited to Spain's peripheral nationalists come to think about it.

Will it be disbanded? Or the parliamentary group simply renamed to just "the Greens"?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

GUE-NL might do well. They'll at least have a few (new) seats from Belgium, and also would win a bit in the Netherlands, Sweden and France.

[Tender Branson]

GUE-NL might do well. They'll at least have a few (new) seats from Belgium, and also would win a bit in the Netherlands, Sweden and France.

The-soon-to-be-renamed List Pilz might join this group as well, but they have close to no chance of getting above the 4% threshold.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

GUE-NL might do well. They'll at least have a few (new) seats from Belgium, and also would win a bit in the Netherlands, Sweden and France.

Isn't there now a cold war between FI, UP and Scandinavians in one team and Linke and Syriza in another team? As far as I know Melenchon started some new political pan-European initiative.

[Ethelberth]

In Finland

All KOK deputies will attempt to reclaim their MEP posts.
SFP, Vihr and Vas deputies will be candidates again.
All Kesk deputies consider to run again (although its possible that some of them run parlamentary elections instead of it).
One PS MEP (Sensei) will come back to Finnish politics). The second PS MEP will rerun.
One SDP MEP will rerun. Liisa Jaakonsaari, who has been in Finnish or European Parliament since 1979 will retire.  

Former speaker, and SDP leader (Eero Heinäluoma) will run for EP next spring.


There will be parlamentary elections one  month before EP elections, so lot of things can happen before it.  

[Zinneke]

GUE-NL might do well. They'll at least have a few (new) seats from Belgium, and also would win a bit in the Netherlands, Sweden and France.

Isn't there now a cold war between FI, UP and Scandinavians in one team and Linke and Syriza in another team? As far as I know Melenchon started some new political pan-European initiative.

Yes, and it will boil over when it comes to selecting the Spitzenkandidaten. FI tried to expel Syriza, and they generally do not get on well with Die Linke.

They´ll most likely stick together though

[EPG]

Anyone have an explainer on the divisions in the GUE-NGL, please?

[palandio]

The FI-Podemos-BE-Scandinavian group seems to be more eurosceptic and to consider Syriza traitors of the anti-austerity position. Cf. Heat's post:

What with the talk about Macron's attempt to create his own European Parliament grouping, everyone seems to have missed that Mélenchon seems to be trying to do the same thing. It seems to be the result of him getting pissed off with GUE/NGL refusing to expel SYRIZA for being sellouts and trying to launch his own Eurosceptic left-wing movement.

Utter vanity though this may be, it's probably still more interesting than what Varoufakis and Hamon are doing, given that it's made up of parties that are actually somewhat successful in their home countries and likely to win seats in the European Parliament. They would, however, need a seventh country for an EP group, and I'm not sure who that could be? Sahra Wagenknecht's movement is the natural missing link, but we're still not even sure if that will even contest elections. The Belgian PTB/PVDA, perhaps (though they might be a little too orthodox), or the Slovenian Left. One to watch, anyway.

[Tender Branson]

Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič announced officially on Monday (17 September) his candidacy to be the leading candidate of his social-democrat political group in the campaign for the 2019 European elections.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/sefcovic-officially-enters-the-spitzenkandidaten-battle/

Christian Kern also officially wants to become European S-D lead candidate.

https://derstandard.at/2000087685696/Kern-auf-europaeischer-Buehne-Ein-Mann-fuer-die-erste-Reihe