The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, any predictions for tomorrow? As a reminder, the last polls were 42-38-12 (Siena) and 42-36-13 (PPP), both with Hochul in the lead.

My guess:

Hochul - 43
Corwin - 42
Davis - 14
Murphy - 1

[Holmes]

Corwin might still pull it off... she does have the edge, demographics-wise. With Davis supporters (supposedly) breaking in favor of Hochul, will a low Davis result benefit her?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If the PPP poll is any indication, Davis has bled off most of his Democratic Party support, so any further erosion might be more of a boon to Corwin. If Davis drops into single-digits, then Corwin will probably win. However, I still think the polling is pretty close to what we'll see tomorrow, because Davis voters seem to really hate both of the other candidates.

[Niemeyerite]

my prediction:

Hochul 44%
Corwin 41%
Davis 12%
Murphy 2%

[Rowan]

If Davis gets at least 8%, Hochul wins.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I'll be a pessimist and say Corwin wins.

[Lief 🗽]

I'll be a pessimist and say Corwin wins.

yup. Let's say 45 to 44.

[zorkpolitics]

Hopefully the Republicans come home, if so I predict Davis fades:
My prediction:

Corwin -  47
Hochul -  46
Davis   -  6
Murphy - <1

[DrScholl]

47% Hochul
44% Corwin
7% Davis
2% Murphy

With favorables looking like they do, I have to predict Hochul wins it.

[rbt48]

Hopefully the Republicans come home, if so I predict Davis fades:
My prediction:

Corwin -  47
Hochul -  46
Davis   -  6
Murphy - <1

I hope you are right.  When I look at a map of the district, this is a race the GOP should not lose.  If Corwin loses, blame her taking the death bate of Medicare reform and the timing of taking out Bin Laden.  If Hochul wins, she won't be out of Congress for many years.

[rbt48]

When the polls close at 9 PM on Tuesday (ET), what are good websites to view results?

[Napoleon]

I think Hochul wins by 5 or so, maybe 47-42.

[cinyc]

When the polls close at 9 PM on Tuesday (ET), what are good websites to view results?

uselectionatlas.org
The AP will likely have results, too.

New York election results reporting stinks.   Results are reported by county, who may or may not separately report county results on their websites.  There is no state aggregator.

The NY-26 County reporting websites (Let me know if I missed any counties):
Erie County Board of Elections
Genesee County Board of Elections
Livingston County Board of Elections
Monroe County Board of Elections
Niagara County Board of Elections
Orleans County Website
Wyoming County Board of Elections

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hochul - 47
Corwin - 45
Davis - 7

[Tender Branson]

My prediction, before I´m off to work:

43.7% Hochul
41.9% Corwin
13.3% Davis
  1.1% Murphy

[Meeker]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_Page_0524.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Brittain33]

Ditto the pessimism. We need a wacky turnout model or serious Republican antipathy to Corwin and the Ryan plan for Hochul to pull this out with Davis below 10%. I think this is going to be a heartbreaker for Hochul.

[Nation]

Hochul - 44
Corwin - 43
Davis - 13
Murphy - <1




MARK IT DOWN

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A more detailed prediction:

Hochul wins big in Erie (>50%), narrowly carries Niagara and Monroe. Corwin wins Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston. Davis does best in the rural areas.

[ag]

Corwin should win, but a lot depends on who turns out.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Ditto the pessimism. We need a wacky turnout model or serious Republican antipathy to Corwin and the Ryan plan for Hochul to pull this out with Davis below 10%. I think this is going to be a heartbreaker for Hochul.

Agreed. I think Corwin pulls it out.

[memphis]

Special elections have weird results because they're all about turnout. How many voters even bother? I'd suspect the Dems have that in their favor because of the Ryan bill, but we'll see....

[Meeker]

Democrats have a very, very good track record with special elections (especially in New York) so I'm not really sure where all the pessimism is coming from.

[Lunar]

My prediction, before I´m off to work:

43.7% Hochul
41.9% Corwin
13.3% Davis
  1.1% Murphy

I'm stealing this but giving some Davis support to Hochul

45.6% Hochul
41.9% Corwin
11.4% Davis

[CultureKing]

44.2 Corwin
43.8 Hochul
11% Davis
1% Murphy

A very close loss for Hochul. For some reason I just can't see us pulling this one out.