Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

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Huh, I'm surprised that the Asian share of "worried a lot" in the first graph is so low, considering that 1.3 million undocumented immigrants are Asian.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

After Trump's response to Charlottesville, I predict that he'll go below 35% in Gallup sometime in the coming week.

I dunno...depends on what portion of that 35% supports the Neo-nazis.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

After Trump's response to Charlottesville, I predict that he'll go below 35% in Gallup sometime in the coming week.

I dunno...depends on what portion of that 35% supports the Neo-nazis.

There aren't more than about 10K members of Klan groups and 10K members of neo-Nazi groups, with some significant overlaps.

There will be people who believe that those who got hurt or killed had it coming... but political violence is held in extreme contempt in America. People who get the news will figure out what is going on and recognize the Alt-Right for an intent to stir up trouble and getting it.

People who already see Donald Trump as a weak or malign leader will not be convinced otherwise with some hollow condemnation of these deeds. 

Are you sure that there's only 10 thousand KKK members/neo-Nazis in America? The rally itself had up to 6k people, so I would expect that there would be tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of militant far-rightists. Millions if you include members of the alt-right who only post their views online. And I would guess a fifth to two-fifths of the country sympathizes with the cultural nationalism of those people, even if they don't agree with the violence or the Nazi imagery (e.g. a lot of Trump voters).

And would Americans be as ready to denounce far-right violence as far-left violence? I know for sure that violence caused by minorities causes harsher backlash than violence caused by whites (e.g. compare the police response to this rally compared to the police response to most BLM protests).

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

I think it will be big among the "remember when" crowd and huge in the South. We may end up with a revivalist "The South Will Rise Again" crowd, supported by many more people. Already it has been propped up in Central and SW VA (Confederate flags popping up all over the place) due to the us vs. them angle and lack of economic opportunity.

I don't know about "may"...it's pretty clear that this crowd exists, and in quite large numbers.

Also, about your last sentence regarding racism and the lack of economic opportunity, you may want to read this

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I just want to put this out here to challenge the notion that improving peoples' economic conditions will help decrease racism.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Gallup, 8/27

Approve 35 (nc)
Disapprove 60 (nc)

Very stable the last few days.

Updating some toplines for todays poll:

Trump's approval rating among people under 30 years old has fallen to a new low of 20% via Gallup.

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So much for the idea that Generation Z will become the next Hitler Youth.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Given that the Millennial generation is often judged as ending somewhere between 96 - 2001, the best time to see where generation z is going to end up is 2020. At that point, we'll have a handful of years in the 18 - 24 group as being genz, the number of years depending on when you think Millennials end. If they really trended more Republican, the 18-24 group should lean more Republican in 2020 compared to 2016. It's not enough for the Democrat to do a little worse, as even while Clinton performed worse among 18-24 year olds, Trump also performed worse than Romney, which was already pretty low.

Anything before then would be too ambiguous. Personally, I think that even if generation z ends up more conservative than Millennials, it won't be an immediate drop in vote share for Democrats. It would probably be a slow-ish decline, and highly doubtful it starts anytime soon. Republicans need to re-brand to make inroads with young minorities (or massive inroads with young whites) for that to happen. If it does, it'll probably be the tail-end of the genz that gets more Republican-leaning.

I think it'll be pretty hard for the GOP to take the "massive inroads with young whites (specifically males)" route, by going full-on alt-right at least. One of the reasons that the alt-right got so popular as it did was because it was a rebellion from both the political establishment and the cultural norms of our times. Now that the alt-right has essentially BECOME the establishment, and an incompetent and terrible establishment at that, it'll be harder for young whites to be enamored with the alt-right brand. (Which is one way a Trump victory might be better long-term than a Clinton victory; imagine how much the alt-right's popularity would skyrocket if she was the president).