What scenario is the unlikeliest?

[Mister Mets]

It's an interesting question.

I'll go with #1.

Ohio and Missouri are both more right-leaning than the rest of the country, so it's possible for the states to support a Republican candidate who loses a general election.

Virginia is the ultimate swing state. In 2008, it was closer to the national average than any other state. And it's been leaning more Democratic lately. Hell, in a close election it's possible for Obama to win Virginia, and lose the electoral college. It's something the Romney campaign has to consider in their strategy.

The least likely event is a candidate winning Vermont and Georgia. But Georgia's still in play for a Democrat during a major landslide. And we've all been spoiled by close elections in 2000 and 2004, so it's easy to forget that landslides are the norm.