Tancredo considers White House bid...

[AuH2O]

He's been on all the cable shows like O'Reilly, which have millions of viewers. And primaries aren't about the entire population, they're about party activists, and they know Tancredo.

It's an interesting situation, that's for sure. Tancredo might even get favorable media coverage in a sense, as bizarre as that sounds, because the media tends to attack the frontrunner, which certainly wouldn't be a Tancredo, and the media also loves controversy.

He definitely should consider it.

[AuH2O]

The difference is that Tancredo is basically a regular Republican, just willing to stand up on illegal immigration. Do not underestimate the anger on that issue.

[AuH2O]

Yeah, I guess the US is actually even more racist because we don't help people illegally immigrate who can't just walk.. what about all those poor Africans and Indians and Chinese.

How about we let in 5 billion immigrants? No problem.

Or, maybe we should just take over the whole world so that you don't need to come to the US, the US comes to you!!!

Yeah, you know what, the MS-13 gangs wreaking havoc, the out of control medical expenses, education expenses, it's awesome. I love it when we import drug dealers and rapists and murderers and take jobs away from Americans. That's what the US government should be doing-- ing Americans.  America, let's just become a bigger, meaner Brazil. That's a pretty awesome future for OUR kids.

So how about this: anyone that supports breaking our laws, taking our money, and even committing additional crimes, can go  themselves. That's for politicians, businesses, whoever, I don't care. If I was in charge, I'd shoot them all, whatever party they're in. The illegals I would just deport.

[AuH2O]

Yes. Yes. And, yes.

And, actually, I don't buy the idea no hispanics will vote for him. First of all, "hispanic" is a broad category-- did Anglos like the Irish when they came over in large numbers. No.

Secondly, to vote, normally, you have to be a citizen of the US. So illegals might not like him, but they don't vote. Every single poll ever conducted indicates support for defending the border across racial and party lines. Indeed, hispanic support among likely voters for protecting the border is probably at least 65% and possibly as high as 75%.

Thirdly, this is not a geographic issue. Illegal immigrants are most common in the Southwest, but there are enough elsewhere and its in the news enough to be a national issue. Unlike Dean's anti-Iraq War pitch, the illegal immigrant issue resonates with independents and many Democrats. In open primaries, that could make a substantial difference.

In a scenario where a Bill Frist gets establishment backing and no other serious candidates enter, Tancredo would possibly be deadlier than McCain was to Bush, because Frist is weaker than Bush and because Tancredo has something McCain didn't: solid conservative credentials across the board.

There is definite precedent for the willingness of voters to protest on the basis of a single issue. Perot, a horrible candidate in basically every single way, screwed up his campaign on top of that and still did very well in 1992 on the basis of the national debt, a less anger-inspiring issue than illegal immigration.

Ford is absolutely correct. Underestimating Tancredo might be a common mistake, but for some people, it might become the last political mistake they ever make. Tancredo could easily finish 2nd in Iowa and then win New Hampshire, which normally hates establishment candidates and voted for Buchanan in 1996, who didn't hold office at all and is much further right than Tancredo.

Then the establishment has a pretty serious problem. Tancredo would have a lot of traction in South Carolina, where even McCain got 42%. Another difference is that GOP voters will not really be that motivated to end Democratic possession of the White House, because unlike 2000, now they've held it for 8 years. Oh and SC has an open primary and a fair number of illegal immigrants... there is VERY, VERY substantial anti-illegal sentiment across the board.

If Tancredo wins SC, basically, it's over. The establishment would have one last chance to make a stand in Virginia, but at that point it wouldn't work. That is NOT an unrealistic scenario at all. In fact, against a mediocre establishment pick, it might even be likely. The game theory is very enticing for Tancredo, who also would have solid fundraising ability in short order.

note: on the issue of calls to Congressional offices, they are common across the board as well. I know multiple people working for South Carolinian representatives, and they get more calls on this than anything else.

note 2: I'm not exactly sure what the primary order in 2008 will be, so I'm operating on the SQ.

note 3: the Chairwoman of Tancredo's PAC "Team America" is Bay Buchanan.