If Texas flips it may set of a beginning of a totally new realignment of the map

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The last time a Republican won without California or Texas (with 93 EVs now and all but certain to gain more after reapportionment) was in 1880 (when they had 14)

A new realignment could flip TX back , just with unrecognizable party coalitions

The late 19th century was also the last time we had anything like this level of urban/rural polarization.  Seems reasonable to expect most of the large states to be Dem leaning down the line.

What I’m saying is it won’t last for long . By 2032 or 2036 we will be in a new era

I don’t know why you’re so adamant that if Texas flips, Republicans WILL get it back. Usually once a state is gone, it’s gone for a long time. Just because Republicans magically decide they need to get less racist won’t win Texas back lol

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Fyi most the swing from 2012 to 2018 is white suburbans and not minority. In fact minority swing probably hurt.

yep.


TEXAS TRENDED R IN 2012

If a dem in 2020 or beyond does something that pisses off the suburbs, texas will swing back to the GOP.

Well yeah. Backlashes to the party in power are common. Dems made gains in Appalachia in 2018 but no one serious besides Politician thinks that means Democrats will continue making gains there. Doesn’t mean they’ll return to the old GOP margins in those place or anywhere near it.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It’s just so hard to me to buy the idea that demographics are destiny when this country has been getting browner in every election since the 90s and there really isn’t any evidence that there is some trend of a drop in gop support

The 2016 result should have blown up the hypothesis, imo. It’s like the blue wall crap

It relies on the assumption that margins among groups stays constant. It just isn’t true. There has never been a time in our history when a party had a lock on the presidency due to some exogenous factor.

Harry enten likes to make this point in his podcast: the 2014 electorate was as diverse as the 2008 Electorate, and if turnout was identical to 2008, the gop still would have won 2014 by 4 points.

That's because Democrats way underestimated how high the GOP can max out white support in particular areas, especially in rural areas and the south. Now it's creeping up to the Midwest, which is mostly 80% or more white. There's no more white people for the GOP to exploit in the South in states like GA and TX