Election Odds

[Gustaf]

Potential yes, always everything has potential.  But reality says attacks are down.  They (terrorists) havbe just been lucky to hit large numbers in single attacks.  It was said just the other day that in one of the dangerous towns they were down from 17 to 5 attacks a day.

Plus if we keep rounding up these leaders such as #54 and Al-Douri (hopefully soon) we will break the resistance completely.

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Iraq does have the potential of becoming another Vietnam. Capturing Saddam is a awesome feat, but things can still escalate and get nasty, big time.

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I am not awfully worried about Iraq, the chance of it going well is bigger than the chance of it turning out bad. But it might lead to the belief that wars and invasions is something to be taken lightly and that would be disastrous in the long run.

[© tweed]

New from AMERICASLINE.com:

ODDS TO BE ELECTED
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2004

George W. Bush (R) President: 3/4
John Kerry (D) Massachusetts Senator: 4/1
Howard Dean (D) Former Vermont Governor: 5/1
John Edwards (D) North Carolina Senator: 6/1
Wesley Clark (D) Retired General: 8/1
Joe Lieberman (D) Connecticut Senator: 50/1
Dennis Kucinich  (D) Ohio Congressman:  500/1
Ralph Nader (I) Consumer advocate: 500/1
Al Sharpton (D) Civil rights activist: 500/1

[Gustaf]

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And it would be a bloody and futile excercise to try and occupy a country with, what, 70 million inhabitants?

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Oh I don't know, the British occupied India for quite a long time, and it contained a lot more than 70 mil, even back then.  

That is not comparable and you know it. Colonial times were very, very different.

[agcatter]

The numbers Miami quoted seem reasonable at this time.  Of course, they will fluctuate quite a bit over the next 11 months.  Lots of twists and turns ahead.

[StevenNick]

I would be very surprised if we launched an invasion of Iran.  We don't need to use any military force to see regime change there.  The Iranian regime is already weak and unable to confront the vast and growing citizen opposition it faces.  I think all we have to do, and all we will do, is make sure the Iraqi reconstruction goes well, step up foreign aid to the Iranian people, and blast our pro-American radio all through the country.  If push came to shove, we could always fund some kind of opposition movement in the country for a final push.  There won't be a war with Iran in a second Bush administration, though there may be a regime change.

[agcatter]

I agree.  The hardliners have only hastened their demise by trying to ban reformist candidates.  This is such an obvious and outrageous abuse of power that it plays right into the hands of reform minded elements of Iranian society.  Hardliners have really overplayed their hand in this case.

[© tweed]

If Bush is re-elected we will most likely invade Iran.

[jravnsbo]

Why do we need to invade, they are already starting to open up to inspectors.  That is definately a good result from this administration.  Plus we have Iran surrounded and can put the pressure on them without actually going in.

If Bush is re-elected we will most likely invade Iran.

[NHPolitico]

New from AMERICASLINE.com:

ODDS TO BE ELECTED
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2004

George W. Bush (R) President: 3/4
John Kerry (D) Massachusetts Senator: 4/1
Howard Dean (D) Former Vermont Governor: 5/1
John Edwards (D) North Carolina Senator: 6/1
Wesley Clark (D) Retired General: 8/1
Joe Lieberman (D) Connecticut Senator: 50/1
Dennis Kucinich  (D) Ohio Congressman:  500/1
Ralph Nader (I) Consumer advocate: 500/1
Al Sharpton (D) Civil rights activist: 500/1

Here's more odds from a betting group:

Bush to win: 67.1%
Kerry to be the nominee: 46.0%
Edwards to be the nominee: 21.9%
Dean to be the nominee: 15.0%

Bush is slightly less of a lock than the Pats to beat the Cats-- 69.9%

Another group has Kerry at 43.6% chance, Dean at 13.3%.

[Gustaf]

I agree.  The hardliners have only hastened their demise by trying to ban reformist candidates.  This is such an obvious and outrageous abuse of power that it plays right into the hands of reform minded elements of Iranian society.  Hardliners have really overplayed their hand in this case.

So do I. At the World Economic Forum, the Iranian president, Khatami, held a speech in which he quoted Hume and other western philosophers. Pretty impressive! How often do western statesemen do that?

[© tweed]

Odds to win the Dem Primary:

Kerry 75%
Edwards 15%
Clark 10%
Other <1%

[NHPolitico]

Odds to win the Dem Primary:

Kerry 75%
Edwards 15%
Clark 10%
Other <1%

I'd put Kerry higher. He's got money, he's got establishment support, he's won both IA and NH, he's running a 50 state campaign, he's got high favorables. I'd say 90%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I always get nervous with big numbers... I'll say 50%

[© tweed]

I always get nervous with big numbers... I'll say 50%

Right, after winning NH decisively, he has only half a chance of the nomination?  No way.

I will drop Bush's chances of re-election from 70% to 65%, based on the fall of Howard Dean and Bush's recent poll slippage.

[Gustaf]

I think I generally agree with MiamiU's odds, though I am inclined to agree wuth NHpolitico that Kerry is almost unbeatable by now. I don't see anyone mounting a serious challenge to him now. Edwards is losing the electability battle, b/c he is doing worse than Kerry in match-up polls with Bush, and he lost aginst Clark in NH. Kerry has more momentum, higher support, more money and more wins than Edwards, as well as a better geographical position, in the Dem primaries.

I also agree that Bush chances of reelection has sunk significantly, but I'm not sure from where to where....I'll still put Bush really high though, 60-80% sounds about right.

[NHPolitico]

I think I generally agree with MiamiU's odds, though I am inclined to agree wuth NHpolitico that Kerry is almost unbeatable by now. I don't see anyone mounting a serious challenge to him now. Edwards is losing the electability battle, b/c he is doing worse than Kerry in match-up polls with Bush, and he lost aginst Clark in NH. Kerry has more momentum, higher support, more money and more wins than Edwards, as well as a better geographical position, in the Dem primaries.

I also agree that Bush chances of reelection has sunk significantly, but I'm not sure from where to where....I'll still put Bush really high though, 60-80% sounds about right.

Scoring one of Kerry's advantages is one thing, but he's got them all and no one has any other advantages.  Kerry might be able to win SC if Clark and Edwards can't knock the other out early.

[Gustaf]

I think I generally agree with MiamiU's odds, though I am inclined to agree wuth NHpolitico that Kerry is almost unbeatable by now. I don't see anyone mounting a serious challenge to him now. Edwards is losing the electability battle, b/c he is doing worse than Kerry in match-up polls with Bush, and he lost aginst Clark in NH. Kerry has more momentum, higher support, more money and more wins than Edwards, as well as a better geographical position, in the Dem primaries.

I also agree that Bush chances of reelection has sunk significantly, but I'm not sure from where to where....I'll still put Bush really high though, 60-80% sounds about right.

Scoring one of Kerry's advantages is one thing, but he's got them all and no one has any other advantages.  Kerry might be able to win SC if Clark and Edwards can't knock the other out early.

Is that an agreement, b/c it sounds like it? A late poll that I didn't see puts Edwards way ahead in SC, so he might survive until Super Tuesday. Edwards only chance laid in very good early results, since he never had a chance against a viable Nortern liberal in the big primary states of Super Tuesday.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Almost 9 months until election day, and I'm going to lower Bush's chances to 55% from 60%.

Kerry's nomination would boost Bush's chances, but that has been more than offset by:

1) No signs of job growth....Has to change by April or Bush is toast.
2) 2003Q4 GDP growth of only 4% was at the low range of expectations....2004Q1 & Q2 need to come in above 5% and 2003Q4 needs to be revised upward.
3) Bush's spending proposes offending GOP base and balloning budget deficit.
4) Bush's immigration policy.

Instead of focusing on the themes of fighting a dual war on terror and recession, Bush:

1) Proposes to increase funding to the Arts (Huh?!)
2) Proposes to take us to barren places like the Moon and Mars at HUGE expense
3) Dramatically increased spending on education instead of focusing on the lack of discipline and parental involvement in the schools
4) Proposed and signed into law a Prescription Drug package whose estimated costs exploded with WEEKS from $400B to $520B.
5) Proposed winking at illegal immigrants
6) etc, etc, etc…

Bush is rapidly losing respect of the GOP base.

What can help?  Drop immigration, drop increase spending on the arts, drop moon and mars.....and pray for Rhenquist (sp?) to retire and appoint Estrada (heals GOP base and brings in Hispanics).

January 2004 was a HORRIBLE month for Bush, by far the worst in his administration.  A couple more months like this and it's hello to Pres Kerry.

[Gustaf]

Almost 9 months until election day, and I'm going to lower Bush's chances to 55% from 60%.

Kerry's nomination would boost Bush's chances, but that has been more than offset by:

1) No signs of job growth....Has to change by April or Bush is toast.
2) 2003Q4 GDP growth of only 4% was at the low range of expectations....2004Q1 & Q2 need to come in above 5% and 2003Q4 needs to be revised upward.
3) Bush's spending proposes offending GOP base and balloning budget deficit.
4) Bush's immigration policy.

Instead of focusing on the themes of fighting a dual war on terror and recession, Bush:

1) Proposes to increase funding to the Arts (Huh?!)
2) Proposes to take us to barren places like the Moon and Mars at HUGE expense
3) Dramatically increased spending on education instead of focusing on the lack of discipline and parental involvement in the schools
4) Proposed and signed into law a Prescription Drug package whose estimated costs exploded with WEEKS from $400B to $520B.
5) Proposed winking at illegal immigrants
6) etc, etc, etc…

Bush is rapidly losing respect of the GOP base.

What can help?  Drop immigration, drop increase spending on the arts, drop moon and mars.....and pray for Rhenquist (sp?) to retire and appoint Estrada (heals GOP base and brings in Hispanics).

January 2004 was a HORRIBLE month for Bush, by far the worst in his administration.  A couple more months like this and it's hello to Pres Kerry.

Wow, that sounds...really good!

I agree that Bush election chances are falling some, but I still view him as the favourite. One of the main problem is that most economic factors so far aren't real changes that people notice, just numbers. If unemployment doesn't fall soon, Bush will have tremendous problems.

[NHPolitico]

Almost 9 months until election day, and I'm going to lower Bush's chances to 55% from 60%.

Kerry's nomination would boost Bush's chances, but that has been more than offset by:

1) No signs of job growth....Has to change by April or Bush is toast.
2) 2003Q4 GDP growth of only 4% was at the low range of expectations....2004Q1 & Q2 need to come in above 5% and 2003Q4 needs to be revised upward.
3) Bush's spending proposes offending GOP base and balloning budget deficit.
4) Bush's immigration policy.

Instead of focusing on the themes of fighting a dual war on terror and recession, Bush:

1) Proposes to increase funding to the Arts (Huh?!)
2) Proposes to take us to barren places like the Moon and Mars at HUGE expense
3) Dramatically increased spending on education instead of focusing on the lack of discipline and parental involvement in the schools
4) Proposed and signed into law a Prescription Drug package whose estimated costs exploded with WEEKS from $400B to $520B.
5) Proposed winking at illegal immigrants
6) etc, etc, etc&#8230;

Bush is rapidly losing respect of the GOP base.

What can help?  Drop immigration, drop increase spending on the arts, drop moon and mars.....and pray for Rhenquist (sp?) to retire and appoint Estrada (heals GOP base and brings in Hispanics).

January 2004 was a HORRIBLE month for Bush, by far the worst in his administration.  A couple more months like this and it's hello to Pres Kerry.

Wow, that sounds...really good!

I agree that Bush election chances are falling some, but I still view him as the favourite. One of the main problem is that most economic factors so far aren't real changes that people notice, just numbers. If unemployment doesn't fall soon, Bush will have tremendous problems.

In past years, the president runs much further behind opponents in early polls than Bush currently does.  I'm not worried, yet.

[© tweed]

JMF's wrong, Kerry will lose to bush unless something drastic happens---like GDP being less than 3% in growth, or Iraq going real bad....

If un Emp is below 6% and Iraq goes alright, Bush can't lose.

[© tweed]

Dem nomination:

Dean 70%
Clark 15%
Gephardt 10%
Edwards <5%
Other <1%

It's amazing...Just half a month ago I gave Kerry <1% chance of winning the nomination.

[Gustaf]

Dem nomination:

Dean 70%
Clark 15%
Gephardt 10%
Edwards <5%
Other <1%

It's amazing...Just half a month ago I gave Kerry <1% chance of winning the nomination.

"The times they are a-changin'"

[bejkuy]

I guess we're all like a bunch of ants on a log floating down the river arguing over which direction it will go next.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I guess we're all like a bunch of ants on a log floating down the river arguing over which direction it will go next.

Actually, it's exactly like watching a bunch of turds floating in a toilet and wondering which one is going down first.