The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[DrScholl]

Good, another Congressional special election coming up. Jackpot week.

[DrScholl]

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Apparently, the Tea Party has learned nothing if there is even a hint of them pulling anything.

[DrScholl]

I don't see how they are harmed by hinting at it?  It just increases their leverage in their negotiating attempt to slow down the nominating process

It's not a matter of the Tea Party being harmed, I was referring more to the prospect of a division in vote among Republicans and conservatives similar to NY-23. It may be about leverage now, but if a third party favorable to them does get into the mix, it means the Tea Party hasn't learned much from the previous situation.

[DrScholl]

This is getting very interesting.

[DrScholl]

from PPP via twitter

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/72404359224369152

We will have final NY-26 results out tonight, they will continue to show Hochul with the lead, as our poll 2 weeks ago did

[DrScholl]

47% Hochul
44% Corwin
7% Davis
2% Murphy

With favorables looking like they do, I have to predict Hochul wins it.

[DrScholl]

Democrats have a very, very good track record with special elections (especially in New York) so I'm not really sure where all the pessimism is coming from.

I don't get it either. The favorables say it all, I don't think any candidate with double digit favorables loses to a candidate with double digit negatives.

[DrScholl]

I think the spoiler effect isn't very existent here, Corwin's favorables were terrible, that would indicate to me that it wasn't all about Davis pulling votes away from her. We also don't know just what percentage of Davis votes weren't going to support her at all, it may have been enough where the result was not spoiled.

[DrScholl]

You're also forgetting that Corwin spent most of the campaign attacking Davis rather than Hocul.  It's probably one of the reasons her favorability with his voters was so bad, and why Hocul was able to run her campaign comparatively unscathed.

That doesn't really change the fact that the spoiler effect didn't have as much impact. It was about the Medicare issue and Davis opposed the Ryan plan, which says to me that all his supporters would not have been pro-Corwin.