Australia General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

Too much damage. So if Rudd doesn't run, what happens?

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd set for a narrow win?

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/julia-gillard-calls-leadership-ballot-after-simon-crean-demands-spill/story-e6freuy9-1226602015161

[RogueBeaver]

ABC reporting that 20 MPs are in Rudd's office now urging him to run.

[RogueBeaver]

Laura Smyth supporting Rudd.

[RogueBeaver]

She has a spine, unlike other people in caucus.

[RogueBeaver]

Plenty of casualties, and Grattan writes Rudd's political obituary.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/3/22/politics/gillards-near-impossible-labour

[RogueBeaver]

Abbott's been calling for an election since the last one. Nothing new there. Budget session will be the last sitting of this Parliament, right?

[RogueBeaver]

An ex-Rudd speechwriter nails it: he's a micromanaging asshole's micromanaging asshole. Basically a little man in a big job.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/beyond-the-kinginexile-20130322-2gl70.html

[RogueBeaver]

Gillard blasts a certain foghorn and gets Hanson's visa policy endorsement, plus a potential Hanson candidacy, as a result. Let's see her explain this one when immigration comes up in the GE debates.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/visa-campaign-exposes-hypocrisy-in-pms-office-20130317-2g8m0.html

[RogueBeaver]

Pauline Hanson?
That Pauline?

Yes. Sept. 14 can't come soon enough.

[RogueBeaver]

Cabinet shuffle incoming.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/rudd-backer-anthony-albanese-set-for-promotion-in-labor-reshuffle/story-fnhqeu0x-1226605194922

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the full list. Albanese to Regional Development while keeping the House leadership, Gray to Natural Resources, Leigh as Gillard's PS, Combet to Climate Change, Dreyfus to Public Service and McLucas to Human Services.

http://www.news.com.au/national-news/julia-gillard-to-reveal-labor-ministry-reshuffle/story-fncynjr2-1226605337345

[RogueBeaver]

Is she going to be having seasonal shuffles or what? Something like the 6th time in less than 3 years. On the Coalition side, I hope there's some econodry talent lurking on the backbench thatt can be found. If not, then start recruiting. (Dare I say pull a Kroger) Can never have a deep enough bench.

[RogueBeaver]

What are the chances of Tony Abbott becoming the next Prime Minister? I remember some time back that Gillard had lambasted him for being a misogynist and his party fell in the polls...

He will almost certainly be the next Prime Minister barring a complete reversal of political fortunes.

[RogueBeaver]

Newspoll out: 58/42 2PP, 50/30/13 primary, 29/64 disapproval for Gillard and 40/52 for Abbott.

[RogueBeaver]

Crean shouldn't have been so quick on the trigger finger. Abbott also leads PPM 43/35. Not that this will be the final result, but plugging it into Green's calculator translates to 108/37.

[RogueBeaver]

The last 2PP was 56/44, not a huge difference. Mildly surprised that primary didn't go south of 30, but since things won't get worse than this it probably won't. Either way quite a few ALP MPs will have to start making retirement plans.

From my perspective, this will be a relatively hollow victory for the Coalition. Neither their leader nor policies give me any reason for enthusiasm and they'll piss away an entire governing cycle.

[RogueBeaver]

Workable or outright Senate majority I'd guess.

[RogueBeaver]

Bill Kelty is rather unhappy with the government.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle/labor-members-walk-away/story-fn59nqgy-1226608136650

[RogueBeaver]

In other news, Gillard specifically endorsed Prince Charles as the next Commonwealth head.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21952895

[RogueBeaver]

PVO: Liberals are pursuing a decapitation strategy.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/libs-mission-off-with-their-heads/story-e6frg6z6-1226607965345

[RogueBeaver]

More interesting fare from PVO, unfortunately paywalled. Anyone have access? Anyhoo, they're about retirement planning and how neither leader measures to HK and Howard.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/election-win-is-gillards-only-chance-at-salvation/story-fn53lw5p-1226609072780

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/mps-preparing-for-life-after-landslide-defeat/story-fn53lw5p-1226609194286

[RogueBeaver]

PVO reporting on Twitter that another Gillard minister is expected to *resign* from Cabinet. And the bloodletting continues.

[RogueBeaver]

Still on track, and Gillard dropped her super "idea."

[RogueBeaver]

Expect that to hit 52-4 before long, since I doubt voters really want to give Abbott a late '70s mandate.