Ohio and Missouri

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I am going to make a bold prediction here.  The 2004 Presidential election will come down to OH and MO.  If either candidate wins both of these states, they will win the election.  If they split these states, it will be a very, very close call.

If you want to forecast Nov. 2, look at the poll numbers in these two states.  It should be all you need to predict the winner.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Many keep saying this will be a close election. I don't see it that way. I see at least 305 for Bush.

If Bush gets 305, he will have an easy time in OH and MO, and win those by >5% margin.  He'll
most likely also take PA.

OTOH, if he loses OH and MO, no way will he get PA... and he'll be in big trouble in FL, CO, and AZ.

My point is, Ohio and Missouri are the "predictor" states.  Watch them for the final outcome.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Have to agree with you there Beef…with the new break down of the Electoral College favouring Republicans the Dems best shot is to hope to win MO and/or OH in both states I would argue it will get highly competitive…I’ll stick my neck out and say that the Dems best shot out of the two is in OH…but as I’ve said both will be close and very competitive…other states the Dems will probably concentrate on will be NM, IA, PA, WV, NV, OR, NH and AZ….

It would also behoove the Dems not to neglect WI and MI.  If the economy is in good shape, any Bush challenger is in big trouble here.  True, MI has been trending Dem lately, but WI has quietly been trending Republican.  That's why it's considered a battleground, despite the fact that it hasn't gone Republican since the 1984 landslide.  People like Bush here, and are pretty conservative on social issues.  We just recently amended our constitution in a landslide referrendum to protect hunting and fishing rights.  The senate and assembly are Republican-controlled, and the governor is a moderate Democrat.  The Legislature was (I think) one vote short of overriding the governor's veto on lifting the concealed-carry ban.

Anyway, WI is NOT Democrat-safe, by any stretch.  But it will go Dem if MO does :-).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Beef what is your prospect on Wisconsin in November, I see it as a liberal state, how did it get so close last time?

WI is socially moderate to conservative, but also strongly Union, with a large manufacturing base.  Full of "Reagan Democrats."  Lots of Catholics and conservative Protestants who could be scared away from Kerry if he is portrayed as too far-left on abortion, gay marriage, and gun-control.  If the economy is perceived as good, Kerry is in big, big trouble here.

(Also read my response to Ben)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Have to agree with you there Beefwith the new break down of the Electoral College favouring Republicans the Dems best shot is to hope to win MO and/or OH in both states I would argue it will get highly competitiveIll stick my neck out and say that the Dems best shot out of the two is in OHbut as Ive said both will be close and very competitiveother states the Dems will probably concentrate on will be NM, IA, PA, WV, NV, OR, NH and AZ.

I agree with Ben, i think there's about 6 traditional republican states that are really close. But there's also the case of CA and PA, wich are close (right now, i don't think will be in Nov)

There's a scenario in which Bush takes CA.  It involves the capture of OBL, establishment of a peaceful stable democracy in Iraq, the DOW at 15,000, and mass conversions to Evangelical Protestantism.

In other words, "not likely."  Bush will take PA, MI, IA, WI, OR, MN, and possibly NJ and IL before he'll take CA.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Bush has a much better chance at Calfornia than you're letting on.  Gore only won California by 12% or so...so a 6% swing gives it to Bush.

It doesn't sound like much of a swing, unless you look at it this way: Gore won by 1.3 million votes.  So you're talking about a swing of 650,000 voters.  Yes, there is a stong conservative base in the Golden State, but not nearly as strong as the millions of rabid Bush-haters in SF and LA who will come out in droves to vote for ANY Democrat.  I just don't see any chance for Bush here.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The reality is those states on the fringe are in play, but only if the election is not close in which case they don't really matter anyway.  I do wonder whether some of the smaller ones sometimes change hands when ignored (WV in 2000).

WV is an interesting case, because it's heavily Union, and just as socially conservative in the rest of the South.  It's also about as strong an anti-gun-controll state as you are going to get.  In 2000, Gore failed to associate himself with the economic successes of Clinton.  He failed to establish himself as a worker's candidate - really on economic issues in 2000 there was little difference between Gore and Bush.  Thus, the voters in WV picked the social conservative: Bush.

I predict that the outcome in WV will come down to the economy.  The better it is perceived on Nov. 2, the better chance Bush has of keeping it.