2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV can be won by A.Laxalt

[ON Progressive]

NV can be won by A.Laxalt

Not in a Democratic wave year when the incumbent GOP governor won't even endorse him.

[libertpaulian]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanim D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Likely D
Florida - Tilt D
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Likley R
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Tossup
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Likely R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[Blackacre]

Okay, as we move into October, it’s time for two updates with a common theme: polling takes priority now over priors, (except in Nevada) and lack of polling indicates uncertainty. Both South Dakota and Maine have a severe lack of polling. The most recent poll from Maine shows a tie, and from South Dakota, it shows a Democratic lead of 3 points. These were either old polls or internals so they don’t get face-value treatment but they do help convey uncertainty. Therefore, while Maine is still Dem-favored and SD is still GOP-favored, they move to their respective Tilts categories until we get new decent public polling to work with.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me. I am altering the Leans rating to be 75%/25% odds rather than the weirder 75.4% to 24.6% that mimics Pokemon. As it stands right now this will benefit Republicans by 0.6% of a Governor’s mansion, which is such a small number that I doubt it will be noticed.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN, CT, OR, NM, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
CO, NV, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
RI, ME, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
OH, KS, OK, GA

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
AK, SD

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (3)
SC, NH, AZ

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
MD, NE, TN, ID, VT

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (5)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.3, R-8.7
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.4, R-8.8
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+9.6, R-9.1
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+22, R-21
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+17, R-16
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+1, R+0
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

We’re really going to need good public polling in, not just those 2 states, but Georgia, Oklahoma, and Kansas as well. Also, I should point out that Nebraska has ZERO polling of any quality, and neither does Vermont or Wyoming. Someone needs to get on that. I’d even take a GRAVIS if it was the only game in town.

[OneJ]

[Xing]

NV can be won by A.Laxalt

Thanks, I needed a good laugh today.

[Kodak]

Polls as of yesterday.

GOP is falling behind in the Rust Belt.

[mcmikk]

New ratings as of 9/28/2018:



Changes:

AK: Tossup --> Lean R
MI: Lean D --> Likely D
SD: Safe R --> Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ME and NV maybe GOP surprises on election night. No polling in ME or CO

[Thomas D]

[Blackacre]

Alaska moves to Leans Republican, and Spenstar cries himself to sleep.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me. I am altering the Leans rating to be 75%/25% odds rather than the weirder 75.4% to 24.6% that mimics Pokemon. As it stands right now this will benefit Republicans by 0.6% of a Governor’s mansion, which is such a small number that I doubt it will be noticed.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN, CT, OR, NM, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
CO, NV, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
RI, ME, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
OH, KS, OK, GA

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
SD

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (4)
AK, SC, NH, AZ

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
MD, NE, TN, ID, VT

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (5)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.10, R-8.35
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.20, R-8.45
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+9.20, R-8.20
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+22, R-21
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+17, R-16
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+1, R+0
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

The Expected Results are now rounding to the nearest .01 instead of the nearest .1 because of Alaska. Dems have a 25% chance of winning there as per the Lean rating, so outside Tilts-only all R losses will be .75 lower than the D gain.

[ElectionsGuy]

AK: Toss-Up --> Likely R
FL: Toss-Up --> Lean D
GA: Lean R --> Toss-Up (Tilt R)
KS: Lean R --> Toss-Up (Tilt R)
SD: Safe R --> Likely R
WI: Toss-Up --> Lean D

IA: Tilt R
NV: Tilt D
OH: Tilt R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV can be won by A.Laxalt

Not in a Democratic wave year when the incumbent GOP governor won't even endorse him.

Cook list it still as tossup😁

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alaska moves from Lean R to Likely R.  Also, can someone please poll Colorado and Vermont?

Safe D (4): OR, HI, NY, CA
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, IL (D+1), NM (D+2), PA, MI (D+3)
Lean D (4): CO, ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (6): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, AZ
Likely R (6): SC, TN, SD, OK, MD, AK (D+6, R+1)
Safe R (7): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH will go Democratic

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, MA, NE, TX, WY
Likely R: KY (19), MD, NH, SC, SD, TN, VT
Lean R: AK, AZ, OK
Tossup: GA, IA, KS, ME, MS (19), OH, WI
Lean D: CT, FL, NV, RI
Likely D: CO, IL, LA (19), MI, MN, PA, OR, NM
Safe D: CA, HI, NY

[DabbingSanta]

October 2nd, 2018 prediction:

Strong R: ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, SC, VT, MA
Lean R: AK, AZ, TN, MD, NH
Tossup: OR, NV, SD, KS, OK, IA, WI, OH, GA, FL, CT, ME
Lean D: CO, NM, MN, IL, MI, PA, RI
Strong D: CA, HI, NY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH and VT are tossups, if Scott fails to get 50% on to the Legislature
Sununu is only up by 5

[Yellowhammer]

Updated:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ARG has Sununu only down by 5 points, NH will be the surprise of election night

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ratings change

[KingSweden]

Updated:

Eminently reasonable. Suspect GOP goes 2-1 in those tossups

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis is tied with GILLUM

[ElectionsGuy]

[MT Treasurer]

AK: Toss-up -> Lean R (This race isn’t over by any means, but it’s hard to deny that Dunleavy is favored to pick this up for the GOP.)
SC: Lean R -> Likely R (This was always a heavy lift, and it doesn’t appear that SC will be all that competitive.)
AZ: Toss-up -> Likely R (Garcia is blowing this race big time, and I doubt he can make up enough lost ground over the next weeks to win here.)
TN: Likely R -> Safe R (Dean isn’t making this as competitive as he should/could have, and this one’s over at this point.)
MA: Likely "R" -> Safe "R" (Looking like a Reasonable Republican™ landslide.)

SD: Lean R -> Toss-up (This race has ND-SEN 2012 potential, and I’m not all that surprised that Noem’s underperforming here.)