State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Kamala]

Next pickup opportunity: MO-HD-50 Michela Skelton (D)

Check out this blog piece on her candidacy where she was interviewed!

https://ready2vote.com/blog/ready2votes-interview-with-democratic-candidate-michela-skelton-missouri-house-district-50

Is she related to Ike?

[Kamala]

^ Fair points, but still, D + 35 -> D + 19 is a heck of a swing to Rs and very hard to not see as a bad sign.

So what's the situation with the mail-ins? They could be part of the reason of the (apparent) swing

[Kamala]

Bryce Marlatt, Republican State Senator for District 27, resigned today after being arrested and charged with sexual battery after apparently groping an Uber driver. So, I guess that means we are getting another Oklahoma special election.

Jesus Christ. Is this like the 6th OK special?

[Kamala]

Apparently Rosecrants lost OK HD 46 in 2016 with 39.6% of the vote, so tonight's result reflects a 20.8% swing in favor of Democrats.

With those kinds of swings, I'd say Democrats have a nonzero chance of taking the Governor's mansion next year.

[Kamala]

Wave.jpg

[Kamala]

The insurer’s allure
For valor were pure Kari Lerner (D, Rock 4)

Marry me.

I'm serious.

[Kamala]

Everything is in. Congratulations to McClure.:

State Representative, District 58
Republican Primary
Compare All Counties
Compare by County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Yvonne Fry   REP   2,984   
45.11%
Lawrence McClure   REP   3,631   
54.89%
6,615   Total

Single digit win is not a good sign for Republicans in this district (based on what I read from others earlier), right?

This is a Republican primary.

[Kamala]

Did someone mention this upthread... she's married to a woman and will be Oklahoma's first LGBT legislator.

woot!

[Kamala]

These results are looking horrendous for The Democrats.

Counties/Precincts Reporting : 0 %

[Kamala]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

I think there was a Florida special election where Democrats under-performed pretty bad. Maybe also one in Mississippi? This is why the results of all of them are averaged together. Not every single special election will swing towards Democrats.

And for the record, these kinds of results that run counter to national trends happen to every party even when the result ends up being a wave. So don't break out the champagne anytime soon, Greedo.

I agree and yes you did make YUGE gains an VA HD and picked up Alabama but the later was because Moore was a muh candidate with a lot of scandals. Oklahoma seems to be electing dems because Mary Fallin is a awful Governor. So far the only yuge warning is VA-HD.

This reads like a Bulgarian bot programmed to post random English words.

Virginia:


Virginia-HD:

[Kamala]

Could this possibly mean that the new lieutenant governor of Minnesota's former district could also be up for grabs?

[Kamala]

Could this possibly mean that the new lieutenant governor of Minnesota's former district could also be up for grabs?

No, that district is completely different. That's more comparable to that Assembly district northwest of Milwaukee also up tonight.

Ah, thanks.

[Kamala]

Please explain

If one party wins a seat 65% to 35%

In the next election the same party wins 55% to 45%

Is that a 10% or a 20% swing?

For what it is worth Wikipedia defines the swing as:

One party swing (in percentage points) = Percentage of vote (current election) – Percentage of vote (previous election).  In my example the swing would have been -10%.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics)

Each party swing 10% (in opposite directions) but the margin swing is 20%.