Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

Both LP Lower House MPs which including Ozawa will run as independents with backing from HP.  This is the end of LP although LP co-leader and Upper House MP 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) who is from the Far Left might continue on leading the party or just revert to being an independent again.   

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What are the DP members of the House Of Councillors like Renho doing?

[jaichind]

Abe approval/disapproval curve now around -5%

[jaichind]

NHK poll did have one good new for LDP.  In it it has 53% certain to turn out and 30% possibility to turn out.  Back in 2014 the sane NHK poll had 57% certain to turn out and 29% possibility to turn out with the final turnout at a record low of 52%.  To be fair election day 2014 had a snowstorm which will not repeat itself this time around.  But if turnout is 52% this time LDP-KP can for sure win a landslide and very likely 2/3 majority just like 2014.  CDP coming into being does mean that turnout should be higher this time around.  If turnout gets above 60% then I can see LDP getting in some trouble. 

[jaichind]

ANN poll

Abe approval/disapproval 36.9(-4.4)/46.3(+6.7)



Note this is party support and not PR so DP is in there (change on Mid Sept) which is really just LDP and DP losing support to HP

LDP  39.7  (-6.5)
KP     4.6   (+1.1)
JRP    2.8   (+1.0)
HP     9.6   (+9.6)
DP     7.1   (-4.2)
SDP   1.9   (+1.1)
JCP    5.8  (+0.1)

Same poll has for PR vote

LDP    29
KP       6
JRP      2
HP     14
LP       1
SDP     1
JCP      6

Back in 2014 final ANN poll for PR and real results

LDP    34.1 -> 33.11
KP       5.8 -> 13.71
PFG     1.1 ->   2.65
JIP      5.3 ->  15.72
DPJ    12.6 ->  18.33
PLP      1.5 ->    1.93
SDP     1.5 ->    2.46
JCP      6.6 ->  11.37

[jaichind]

What are the DP members of the House Of Councillors like Renho doing?

I think wait an see.  For now DP is not gone.  After the election DP will merge into HP.  Some DP Upper House members then can join CDP or just become independent. 

[jaichind]

There are media reports of rumors from LDP that an internal LDP survey of all prefectures indicates that LDP could lose up to 100 seats (which would put LDP-KP just short of majority.)  The internal LDP joke going around is that "Abe was looking to fight the Battle of Pearl Harbor but is getting the Battle of Midway."  I am doubtful of these internal LDP projections.  They always underestimate LDP changes significantly in order to shake the LDP voter out of their complacency. 

[jaichind]

Overall the news cycle last 24 hours have been moving against Koike.

It seems Kokie has decided not to contest Lower House polls which I imagine would break some of the HP momentum.  That has not stopped 2 members of her Tokyo TPFA MLAs from quitting TPFA to protest Koike making a move to create a national party HP without consultation with her Tokyo based TPFA.

HP released their first list of 192 candidates of which 110 of them have DP backgrounds.  It does seem that some of these DP candidates are balking at actually running since all of them have to sign a  HP document indicating that they support the New Security Law of 2015 which most of them are on record as opposing in 2015.  It seems that there will be another wave of HP candidates so the total will most likely exceed 233 candidates so nominally HP could win a majority.  Of course with Koike not running HP is pretty much conceding that LDP-KP will win with the only issue by how much.

[jaichind]

3 LP members are being nominated by HP although both existing Lower House LP MPs including Ozawa will run as independents with de facto HP support. 

[Lachi]

I would think that Renhō would either be an Independent, or join HP, her being part of Maehara's faction after all.

[jaichind]

Reading over various Japanese discussion boards it seems most projections fall in the following range

LDP  260-300 seats
KP     30-35 seats
JRP    10-20 seats
HP    50-100 seats
CDP   10-25 seats
JCP    20-25 seats
Ind.   10-20 seats (SDP will have a couple, 3-5 LDP rebels, rest ex-DP or ex-LP independents)

[FredLindq]

CDP?! Did I miss something?!

[Tintrlvr]

CDP?! Did I miss something?!

Center-left remnants of DP that aren't merging into HP. The "Constitutional Democratic Party" (i.e., opposed to changes to the constitution).

[jaichind]

New opposition party gathers unlikely momentum on Twitter
Tuesday, October 3, 2017 09:52 AM
TOKYO, Oct. 3 Kyodo
A just-formed political party that splintered off Japan's largest opposition has garnered a much stronger following than its similarly young, high-profile rival headed by the popular Tokyo governor, at least on social media.
The official Twitter account, handled @CDP2017 and set up on Monday by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan led by former Democratic Party big-shot Yukio Edano, had more than 77,000 followers as of late Tuesday night.
With just 2,400 followers, @kibounotou, the week-old official account of the Party of Hope and spearheaded by Tokyo's popular first female governor Yuriko Koike, trails well behind.
Edano, former chief Cabinet secretary when the Democratic Party's predecessor was in power, set up the pro-Constitution party as a home for Democratic Party members unlikely to be accepted by Koike's party due to differing political beliefs on national security and an amendment to the pacifist Constitution.
The Democratic Party, which had 87 seats in the House of Representatives before its dissolution last week, has split into three groups -- those joining the Party of Hope, those opting for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and those running as independents in the Oct. 22 general election.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan's 77,000 Twitter followers are more than three times the number of the Democratic Party, at 23,000, and the number surpasses 71,000 for the long-standing Komeito party, which had 35 seats and formed the ruling coalition with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party.
The LDP, which held 287 seats in the 475-member lower house, has some 110,000 followers.

[Famous Mortimer]

Those don't seem like high enough numbers to mean anything. Clearly most Japanese people do not follow politicians are twitter. Additionally, those could just be bots.

[jaichind]

Out the 87 current DP MPs

43 will run for HP
14 will run for CDP
16 will run as independents (most of them with de facto joint HP-CDP candidates)
8 are still unclear (most of them will most likely end up running as HP or ind. (de facto HP-CDP candidates)
6 will retire

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

will CDP maintain the alliance with JCP?

[jaichind]

will CDP maintain the alliance with JCP?

Yes.  It it actually quite complicated.  In some prefectures there might even be de facto HP-CDP-JCP alliance to take on LDP.  Will write about it soon.

[jaichind]

New Asahi poll  (diff on 9/26-27 poll)



Abe approval 40(+4)/38(-1)

PR vote

LDP      35 (+3）
KP   　　7（+1）
JRP　　  4（+1）
HP  　　12（-1）
CDP       7（new）
LP          1 (-)
SDP       1 (-1)
JCP　　  6（+1）

Looks like some of the DP vote that went to HP came to CDP.

[jaichind]

Looking over the candidates that HP and CDP have nominated one can map out what their relative strategies are.

For HP it is about outsourcing its competition with LDP outside of 東京(Tokyo), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 愛知(Aichi), and 大阪(Osaka) to DP.  HP mostly took in DP wholesale in those regions.  For 大阪(Osaka) HP outsourced the work to JRP in return for JPR backing HP in Tokyo.  In  東京(Tokyo), 神奈川(Kanagawa), and 愛知(Aichi) the HP's position is "It is Koike's way or the high way."  DP in these 3 regions are welcome to join HP but the local HP branch (in 愛知(Aichi) it is HP-TJC) is in charge.  Anyone from DP who does not accept those terms are not accepted.  As a result HP is running a bunch of political novices and some DP defectors in these 3 prefectures.  It is in these 3 prefecture that victory for Koike will be determined.  If HP does well outside these regions then one can argue that it was the local DP plus the Koike brand that did well.  If HP does well in these 3 prefectures then it shows that the Koike brand is enough for victory. 

What is at stake is control of DP after the election. If Koike does well in these 3 prefectures then the rest of the DP will mostly fall in line.  If not then many of the DP turned HP winners in the rest of Japan might merge with CDP.

For CDP it is about running some quality DP candidates that that HP did not take in but they are going all out to take on HP in Tokyo.  So in Tokyo it will be LDP vs HP vs CDP across the board which gives LDP a fighting chance.  In 神奈川(Kanagawa) and  愛知(Aichi) CDP is also running a lot of candidates although there are some CDP-HP cooperation in some districts.  CDP's strategy is the opposite of HP. It is determined to, beyond the goal of defeating LDP-KP, keep HP contained in 東京(Tokyo), 神奈川(Kanagawa) and 愛知(Aichi) so after the election CDP can claim to be the true DP and then get enough DP turn HP defectors to turn HP into a Tokyo regional party.

There are a bunch of ex-DP MPs that one reason or another HP decided not to take in. For most of them neither CDP nor HP are running candidates against them so in de facto terms these candidates are becoming joint HP-CDP candidates against the LDP.

In 北海道(Hokkaido) where the local DP branch completely went over to DCP there are de facto seat adjustments between DCP and HP.  In 新潟(Niigata) there seems to be an attempt to have ex-DP candidates run as independents with backing from CDP HP and JCP.  Same in 沖縄(Okinawa).  In  三重(Mie) there seems to be the same but without JCP. 

So in many places HP and DCP are de facto working together even as in Tokyo it is all out war between them.

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems DCP is running a bunch of candidates which is hurting JRP in its battle with LDP.    While in 兵庫(Hyōgo), I am not sure what happen since there was suppose to be a HP-JRP alliance but in reality they are running a lot of candidates against each other so LDP should sweep here again just like 2014.

Overall it seems that between HP, DCP and ex-DP independents they should win most seats that DPJ and non-Osaka JIP won in 2014.   I expect the opposition bloc to make gains in 北海道(Hokkaido) and 新潟(Niigata) but perhaps lose ground in  愛知(Aichi) given the split between HP and DCP there.  東京(Tokyo)and  神奈川(Kanagawa) are wild cards.  If the Koike brand takes off there then LDP will lose ground despite DCP cutting into the anti-LDP vote.  Given HP is backing JRP in Osaka and DCP being relatively weak there I would also expect JRP to gain ground there relative to JIP in 2014.

Overall it seems LDP-KP is heading toward a solid victory but losing a couple dozen seats to take them below 2/3 majority.   

[Lord Halifax]

Why do HP have strength in Kanagawa?

Is CDP or DCP correct? You used both in your previous post.

[jaichind]

Why do HP have strength in Kanagawa?

Is CDP or DCP correct? You used both in your previous post.

Kanagawa is a Tokyo suburb and pretty much shares the same media market so the Koike brand is strong there being that it is strong in Tokyo.   Sorry it is CDP (Constitutional Democratic Party).  I think in theory it should be CDPJ for Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan which is its official English name.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Democratic_Party_of_Japan

[jaichind]

It seems all the 110+ DP candidates running under the HP banner are paying their own $26K deposit fees as HP is so short of money.  Sort of fits my narrative of HP outsourcing the anti-LDP campaign to DP in most of Japan.  Of course what this also says is, like I said, if Koike bombs in place like Tokyo then all these ex-DP elected MP owns Koike nothing and all will go their own way or join CDP if CDP does well and CDP becomes the new DP with a mouth eaten Tokyo and Kanagawa wing.

[jaichind]

週刊文春(Weekly Bunshun) magazine projection.  Very negative on LDP.  LDP-KP reduced to 249 which is barely above majority.  I generally do not buy it.  You have the buy the magazine to read details so this sort of shocking projection is meant to get people to buy the magazine.  




              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          155        59       214             30.5%
KP               9         25        34             13.5%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP            11         16        27             11.0%
HP             63         38      101              19.5%
CDP           13         15        28              10.0%
SDP             1           1         2                2.5%
JCP              1         21       22              12.0%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  31           0       31      (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Again, PR vote share seems plausible although I would say JRP PR vote share is overestimated.   The district results is only possible with a massive HP-CDP-JCP election coordination and tactical voting effort which does not seem possible.

[jaichind]

General Secretary of KP indicated that if LDP-KP loses its majority KP will consider an alliance with HP-JRP to form a HP-JRP-KP ruling bloc "to provide good stable government."