I'm very skeptical it'll make much of an impact.
Charlie Crist re-enfranchised 150,000 ex-felons during his time as Governor of Florida, and it didn't make a dent in the partisanship of Florida because the vast majority of them never registered, and less than 20% of them even voted.
Florida voted for Obama twice after that happened.
That is very true, but only by small margins, and the state remained 3-4 points to the right of the nation in those particular races. If we were seeing real dents in FL's partisanship from those voters, we would have seen it in other close races in the state.
Also, just keep in mind that more white people regained their right to vote from Amendment 4 than black people. There's plenty of R voters coming out of the 15% of ex-felons who will register.
