Who will become the next Senator from Delaware?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

O'Donnell is more than just far right, she has huge ethical issues as well as signs of paranoia and is seen as "unfit for public office" by about 60% of Delaware voters. I'd go into more detail except it's about as logical as arguing with J. J.

Oh except remember FL-19. And PA-12.

[Ronnie]

I'm not sure I want Christine O'Donnell to win.  If she does, we will continue to see Tea Party Candidates usurp establishment candidates, and we cannot afford this, especially in years where the political climate is unfavorable for the Republicans.  This Tea Party "movement" needs to die out as soon as possible.

I feel a bit tepid on whether I actually support many of these candidates, as it may be in the best interest of the GOP to get as many votes as possible (short term).  I don't want the Obama agenda to progress, so that's why I think I would support candidates like Sharon Angle.

Overall, the situation is very confusing and I want it to end!

[Beet]

I'm not sure I want Christine O'Donnell to win.  If she does, we will continue to see Tea Party Candidates usurp establishment candidates, and we cannot afford this, especially in years where the political climate is unfavorable for the Republicans.  This Tea Party "movement" needs to die out as soon as possible.

I see where you're coming from too, but if there's one thing these "tea party" candidates can do on a dime it's go from "insurgent" to establishment. Heck, Scott Brown has already joined Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins as the Senate's 3rd "liberal" Republican, while Rand Paul held fundraisers with McConnell before he even made it to the General. I may be in awe of the power of the tea party, but I pity their naivety

[Smash255]

I'm not sure I want Christine O'Donnell to win.  If she does, we will continue to see Tea Party Candidates usurp establishment candidates, and we cannot afford this, especially in years where the political climate is unfavorable for the Republicans.  This Tea Party "movement" needs to die out as soon as possible.

I see where you're coming from too, but if there's one thing these "tea party" candidates can do on a dime it's go from "insurgent" to establishment. Heck, Scott Brown has already joined Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins as the Senate's 3rd "liberal" Republican, while Rand Paul held fundraisers with McConnell before he even made it to the General. I may be in awe of the power of the tea party, but I pity their naivety

Scott Brown was already that type of Republican.  He is pro-choice, and had a moderate voting record in the Massachusetts State Senate.  He was always going to be that type of moderate Republican.   That in part right there is the difference between someone like Brown winning and someone like O"Donnell's chances.  He was able to appeal to the Independents and some Democrats due to him being a moderate, O'Donnell isn't and can't.

[Frink]

I agree with you Beet. Ideology really doesn't exist for the average American the way it does for us. Every conversation I've had in real life about politics outside of a serious classroom setting tells me that that study is correct about voter motivations. Makes me shiver to think at what will happen when the economy is still in the toilet in 2012 (could easily be a replay of 1932 with the roles reversed).

[Dan the Roman]

The problem with personal foibles is that they become damaging when they pass into pop culture. Rand Paul's problems are not entertaining, nor are they about sex, and therefore they fade from view when he shuts up. Sharon Angle has genuine trouble shutting up.

The problem with O'Donnell is not that her views are extreme, or even that her statements are insane in and of themselves. Its that they are interesting, and to add a point, the fact that she is attractive makes her views about sex even moreso of interest. O'Donnell may benefit from the factors you noted if she runs an energetic anti-establishment campaign, but go onto facebook sometime or twitter and see how many apolitical or usually apolitical people are talking about her in the next few days. Becoming a pop culture phenomenon is dangerous in this context because what she really needs is to establish herself as being serious and this makes it impossible.

Watch her the next few days. But she has a real problem because

1. She has said a lot of stupid things about sex and religion
2. People care about these
3. There is video of it
4. The video is hilarious

[fezzyfestoon]

She most definitely will not.  I am 99.9% sure she will go down in flames and be remembered only for derailing a legit politician's future.

[Skill and Chance]

2010= Tea Party paradise in the senate

2016= 23 new senate votes for something left of Obamacare

Seriously, you guys need to think long term on these things.

Hilarious.

Please hear me out on this.  I was being hyperbolic, but the point still holds and I am not a strong partisan either way.  The Tea Party is paying huge dividends in a year like this, but there is a downside.  It is setting the GOP up for disaster whenever the next Dem wave hits, be it in 2016 or in 2028.  Virtually none of the Tea Partiers can survive a Dem wave, except in places like UT, which means it would be 300/70 instead of 260/60 the next time around.  Then it's Welcome to Scandinavia because there will be absolutely nothing to stop them from passing the entire progressive agenda.  That could end up being the Tea Party's legacy.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

2010= Tea Party paradise in the senate

2016= 23 new senate votes for something left of Obamacare

Seriously, you guys need to think long term on these things.

Hilarious.

Please hear me out on this.  I was being hyperbolic, but the point still holds and I am not a strong partisan either way.  The Tea Party is paying huge dividends in a year like this, but there is a downside.  It is setting the GOP up for disaster whenever the next Dem wave hits, be it in 2016 or in 2028.  Virtually none of the Tea Partiers can survive a Dem wave, except in places like UT, which means it would be 300/70 instead of 260/60 the next time around.  Then it's Welcome to Scandinavia because there will be absolutely nothing to stop them from passing the entire progressive agenda.  That could end up being the Tea Party's legacy.

2016 will be an excellent Democratic year by default -- I mean, if Republicans win big this year, Democrats will have, what, five seats left in this class, all in hyper-liberal territory? Only a Wyden retirement could give the GOP a chance at a pick up in 2016; possibly a Boxer retirement, if she's not swept out.

Be careful about assuming all GOPers will get swept out, or that all conservatives will lose, or that you'll win every seat in a Dem-leaning state. Tons of Republicans lost in 1986, but plenty survived in places you'd assume they wouldn't, like Washington.

[opebo]

Beet's right.

You simply cannot underestimate the american voter, even in a place like Delaware.

[tpfkaw]

The joke will be on you guys if she wins, you know.

[Meeker]

People start to say crazy and stupid things as we get closer to the general election. Happened in 2008 and 2006 as well. I'll just be happy when it's all over in 46 days.

Also: Blue avatar from me for a year if she wins.

[Brittain33]

The joke will be on you guys if she wins, you know.

I'm puzzled by statements like this. What does it matter? The joke will be on you if Jack Conway wins, but that doesn't mean it's at all likely to happen, or you should suddenly start talking like he's going to.

[tpfkaw]

She beat Coons in fundraising 20-1 yesterday.  I think that if Coons wins, he will win by a lower margin than Paul.

[Meeker]

Also, for those touting the fundraising, raising $800,000 in one day still means she lags Coons in CoH.

[tpfkaw]

Also, for those touting the fundraising, raising $800,000 in one day still means she lags Coons in CoH.

Not for long.

[Meeker]

Also, for those touting the fundraising, raising $800,000 in one day still means she lags Coons in CoH.

Not for long.

Because there's no way Chris Coons is raising any money at a time like this!

[tpfkaw]

Also, for those touting the fundraising, raising $800,000 in one day still means she lags Coons in CoH.

Not for long.

Because there's no way Chris Coons is raising any money at a time like this!

Not when every "progressive" activist is declaring he has the race in the bag and therefore needs no help whatsoever.  Hence why he only raised $40000 yesterday to O'Donnell's $800000.

[Meeker]

Also, for those touting the fundraising, raising $800,000 in one day still means she lags Coons in CoH.

Not for long.

Because there's no way Chris Coons is raising any money at a time like this!

Not when every "progressive" activist is declaring he has the race in the bag and therefore needs no help whatsoever.  Hence why he only raised $40000 yesterday to O'Donnell's $800000.

I can assure you that at the end of Q3 Chris Coons will have both raised more money and have more CoH than Christine O'Donnell. Bump this thread in a few weeks.

[tpfkaw]

Okay, how about this bet:

If:

Chris Coons will have both raised more money in Q3 and have more cash on hand than O'Donnell, I will go red avatar for a month.

If:

One of those two conditions is not fulfilled, you will go (hmmm . . .) tan avatar for a month.

Deal?

[Meeker]

Oh she may out raise him in Q3 (may). I was referring to overall fundraising.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Listen, I think Christine O'Donnell is a tool just like the rest of you Democrats do, but don't be blind to what's going on here. It's clear that Tea Partiers are going to FLOOD her with money to an unbelievable point. Why?

Because the establishment just told the Tea Party to fuck themselves. The Tea Party is more and more in the business of sticking it to the establishment. Forget Angle, Buck, Miller, and any of the other previous Tea Party celebrities. O'Donnell is the new one, and like the adage says, "a fool and his money are soon parted."

You're blind if you think O'Donnell's going to hurt for money. They're going to give and give. She's the new celebrity. She's the alpha and the omega. And she's going to use every cent she can for her own personal expenses.

[Meeker]

Listen, I think Christine O'Donnell is a tool just like the rest of you Democrats, but don't be blind to what's going on here. It's clear that Tea Partiers are going to FLOOD her with money to an unbelievable point. Why?

Because the establishment just told the Tea Party to fuck themselves. The Tea Party is more and more in the business of sticking it to the establishment. Forget Angle, Buck, Miller, and any of the other previous Tea Party celebrities. O'Donnell is the new one, and like the adage says, "a fool and his money are soon parted."

You're blind if you think O'Donnell's going to hurt for money. They're going to give and give. She's the new celebrity. She's the alpha and the omega. And she's going to use every cent she can for her own personal expenses.

I never said she'd be hurting for money. I just don't think Coons will be either.

O'Donnell's money is coming in very quickly from Tea Party people who are really excited. Coons' money will trickle in from old guys in New York and the D.C. suburbs who want to give him money now that he's going to be a Senator.

[Niemeyerite]

O'donnell won't win. she is  too conservative to win in a very blue state. and to win, the first thing she has to do is to win castle's voters, who were 47% of the republicans. and people who voted for castle in the primary hate o'donnell. how could she win the GE if she can't win 80-90% of republicans??? and coons is leading her with castle voters (see PPP release). In less than 2 months, how could she win the back of moderate republicans, of a majority of independents and about 15% of democrats?!

Oh, and if CoH makes sure your victory, will Blanche win?

[DrScholl]

It can't be disputed that she can raise plenty of money, but I don't think that's enough to pull her across the line. She's stuck with her hard-right views, if she tries to soften them up, she alienates the people who made everything possible for her. That shuts her out with many moderates and Democrats and no Republican is going to win here without crossover appeal, which is why Castle was the preferred choice for Republicans.