Who will become the next Senator from Delaware?

[Smash255]

Well, for starters, this could have easily been posted in the thread titled "What will the November results be in Delaware" or whatever it's called. But no... you had to be a big drama queen and start your own thread about how'll she'll win because she supposedly had a good fundraising day. The act is growing stale, that's all I'm saying.

She didn't 'supposedly' have a good fundraising day. Her site crashed from all the people trying to donate - in this economy - think about it. How many politicians have had roughly $1 million in 24 hours moments like this over the past two years? I can only think of three - Barack Obama, Scott Brown, and possibly Rand Paul (would have to double check on that). All of them ended up winning, even though some of them were considered huge longshots at some point.

How many of the people donating were from Delaware??

It doesn't really matter how much rubes from out of state donate to her campaign, fact of the matter is her numbers from the general electorate in Delaware are absolutely awful.  Democrats have a 17.5 % voter enrollment edge in Delaware, and while its likely going to be smaller than that during the General Election in order for a Republican to win in a state like Delaware you need to have some type of cross over appeal to Democrats and Independents.  She hasn't shown that she has even a remote possibility of appealing to anyone to the left of Rick Santorum.   She has no chance, and is completely unelectable.  It might be a very Republican year, it might be a very surprising year, when things that would not happen in any other year could happen this year.  However, this is not one of them.  She is completely unelectable.

[Smash255]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

She didn't 'supposedly' have a good fundraising day. Her site crashed from all the people date=1284616973]
Well, for starters, this could have easily been posted in the thread titled "What will the November results be in Delaware" or whatever it's called. But no... you had to be a big dramatrying to donate - in this economy - think about it. How many politicians have had roughly $1 million in 24 hours moments like this over the past two years? I can only think of three - Barack Obama, Scott Brown, and possibly Rand Paul (would have to double check on that). All of them ended up winning, even though some of them were considered huge longshots at some point.

How many of the people donating were from Delaware??

It doesn't really matter how much rubes from out of state donate to her campaign, fact of the matter is her numbers from the general electorate in Delaware are absolutely awful.  Democrats have a 17.5 % voter enrollment edge in Delaware, and while its likely going to be smaller than that during the General Election in order for a Republican to win in a state like Delaware you need to have some type of cross over appeal to Democrats and Independents.  She hasn't shown that she has even a remote possibility of appealing to anyone to the left of Rick Santorum.   She has no chance, and is completely unelectable.  It might be a very Republican year, it might be a very surprising year, when things that would not happen in any other year could happen this year.  However, this is not one of them.  She is completely unelectable.

Amen! Murkowski can never be primaried! ..............opps

Delaware is not Alaska.......

[Smash255]

This is probably the fourth time I've seen an idiotic comparison of O'Donnell to Scott Brown.

Ooh I glossed over that at first.


To make the comparison between Scott Brown and Christine O'Donnell is beyond retarded, hell the tea party has already thrown Brown under the bu.

[Smash255]

She does have crossover appeal to Democrats and Independents. The crossover appeal consists of dissatisfaction with the status quo, and working class Democrats in particular. The same as Scott Brown's crossover appeal. These people are to the left of Rick Santorum for sure, but they aren't hyper-sensitive to the political spectrum like we are.

By the way, people at Atlas tend to think of the political spectrum like some sort of law of nature when in reality it's just an invention of the elite. Sure it has some use, but you do realize that the average person doesn't think in those terms, right? They don't see where O'Donnell stands in relation to Santorum on the political spectrum. What they do see is that maybe she stands for change, maybe she stands for fiscal responsibility (this is the possibility that a competent Coons campaign would blight out), maybe she has more integrity (once again, going to be a key campaign issue), maybe she stands for a protest statement, maybe she just stands for someone who brings masturbatory fantasies to mind but that will win their vote anyway.

Fwiw, I also can't believe you brought up party registration. I believe it's something like 2-1 Dem in Oklahoma. I guess Jari Askins is safe.

Scott Brown had cross over appeal because he was a moderate.  O'Donnelll is bat sh*t crazy, she is FAR to the right.  She has no cross over appeal, that is evident in the fact that her numbers are BRUTAL.  People in Delaware know her, and they don't like her.  A protest vote for one reason or the other is one thing, but when your numbers suck you aren't exactly going to get cross over votes.

As far as party enrollment in bringing up Oklahoma.  Delaware is not Oklahoma, you may perhaps have a few Dixiecrats hanging around in Sussex County, but New Castle??  Please, in order to have a remote chance, you at least need to be somewhat competitive in New Castle County.  She is going to get absolutely torched there.   She is absolutely unelectable period.

[Smash255]

Did you even read what I wrote? You're saying that O'Donnell has no crossover appeal because of her place on the political spectrum. What I said was that only a small minority of voters actually determine their votes by the political spectrum in such a way.

Some guys from Michigan looked into this back in the fifties and they found that only 6 percent of voters determine their votes by where someone stands on the ideology spectrum. 94 percent of voters vote based on perceived group interests, the 'goodness' or 'badness' of the times, or completely idiosyncratic and stupid reasons. Check it out. This book went on to become the foundational tome of modern Political Science. It's what most political media unfortunately doesn't get.

Usually when an extremist candidate who somehow gets into competitive position loses, it's not because voters found that candidate 'far right' or 'far left' and therefore rejected them out of hand, it's because there was some stance of theirs that voters found really distasteful and that became the driving force in the campaign. O'Donnell sure has some of those issues, potentially, but the problems is, in a year like 2010, there's no guarantee that it'll become the driving force of the campaign, because people can potentially be brought to care more about other things.

I read what you wrote, fact of the matter is when someone is as extreme as O'Donnell ideology does matter, especially when that ideology is such a bad fit for that state.  2010 could see many things that are unexpected.  It will probably not be your typical election year.  However, that does not mean the crazies are going to start pulling off.   O'Donnell is simply crazy.  She is bats*** and this isn't some conservative or even a purple state we are talking about here.  Her negatives are through the roof and as far as I know Coons hasn't been caught in bed with a live boy.  She has no chance.

[Smash255]

I'm not sure I want Christine O'Donnell to win.  If she does, we will continue to see Tea Party Candidates usurp establishment candidates, and we cannot afford this, especially in years where the political climate is unfavorable for the Republicans.  This Tea Party "movement" needs to die out as soon as possible.

I see where you're coming from too, but if there's one thing these "tea party" candidates can do on a dime it's go from "insurgent" to establishment. Heck, Scott Brown has already joined Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins as the Senate's 3rd "liberal" Republican, while Rand Paul held fundraisers with McConnell before he even made it to the General. I may be in awe of the power of the tea party, but I pity their naivety

Scott Brown was already that type of Republican.  He is pro-choice, and had a moderate voting record in the Massachusetts State Senate.  He was always going to be that type of moderate Republican.   That in part right there is the difference between someone like Brown winning and someone like O"Donnell's chances.  He was able to appeal to the Independents and some Democrats due to him being a moderate, O'Donnell isn't and can't.

[Smash255]

This race could get very interesting if Castle decides to endorse O'Donnell, which who knows? He may do that. But I wouldn't consider her chances to be too great if Castle doesn't endorse and especially if he endorses Coons.

That has already been ruled out.....

[Smash255]

Well Opebo has one thing in common with O'Donnell.   Think Condemns are evil, or in O'Donnell's case "anti-human"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42288.html#ixzz0zl3e0X36

[Smash255]

We can dispense with the scenario that Coons takes this race for granted while O'Donnell outhustles him to victory. NYT reports she isn't doing any campaigning in Delaware while Coons is working the voters.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/us/politics/30bai.html

LOLZ, btw Castle is not running as a write in

[Smash255]

LOL

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/10/04/odonnell-in-2006-china-wants-to-take-over-america/#more-126478