OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[BuckeyeNut]

O'Connor would be lucky to get around 45% in Delaware County. I think, in this environment, he should get to 40%.

[BuckeyeNut]

A Republican win here would indicate that the national environment for Democrats has moved substantially towards the Republicans since the PA-18 special.

And there are no signs to indicate that the national environment has gotten any better for Republicans in the mean time, which is why I think O Connor is significantly favored.

I love how the hot takes are beginning a month before the election even happens.

Early voting starts tomorrow -- it's not too early for the hot takes.

[OneJ]

A Republican win here would indicate that the national environment for Democrats has moved substantially towards the Republicans since the PA-18 special.

And there are no signs to indicate that the national environment has gotten any better for Republicans in the mean time, which is why I think O Connor is significantly favored.

I love how the hot takes are beginning a month before the election even happens.

Early voting starts tomorrow -- it's not too early for the hot takes.

Is Ohio one of those states that does registration by party?

[ON Progressive]

A Republican win here would indicate that the national environment for Democrats has moved substantially towards the Republicans since the PA-18 special.

And there are no signs to indicate that the national environment has gotten any better for Republicans in the mean time, which is why I think O Connor is significantly favored.

I love how the hot takes are beginning a month before the election even happens.

Early voting starts tomorrow -- it's not too early for the hot takes.

Is Ohio one of those states that does registration by party?

They don't. Closest thing they have is "last primary vote".

[BuckeyeNut]

Granted, last primary vote is generally a pretty good indicator of how people vote overall...

But things are weird, right now. There are a good number of Democrats who voted for Kasich in 2016 primary and then didn't vote in the midterm primaries. I've encountered so many twentysomethings who are registered Republicans who are die-hard Democrats...

[Tender Branson]

New internal poll for Danny O'Connor (D) has him down by 5 points:

48% Troy Balderson (R)
43% Danny O'Connor (D)
  5% Joe Manchik (G)

A previous poll taken by O'Connor's campaign in June showed Balderson with a 7-point lead, 48 percent to 41 percent.

Both of O'Connor's polls were conducted by GPA strategies. The July poll was taken among 600 likely voters via land and cell phone lines; it has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. The June 9-12 poll involved 500 likely voters and had a +/- 4.4 percent margin of error.

https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/07/troy_baldersons_lead_narrows_i.html

[UncleSam]

The lack of publicity surrounding this race will help O’Connor. Lower turnout elections favor higher enthusiasm portions of the electorate. It’s not obvious to me, however, what happens if O’Connor wins. Does he then have to win three months later in a regular election? I’d imagine that would be tougher.

[ON Progressive]

The lack of publicity surrounding this race will help O’Connor. Lower turnout elections favor higher enthusiasm portions of the electorate. It’s not obvious to me, however, what happens if O’Connor wins. Does he then have to win three months later in a regular election? I’d imagine that would be tougher.

He is going for re-election 3 months later. The election will also be O'Connor vs. Balderson. I think if he wins here, he'll probably win in November. Rematches of special elections in a regular election tend to go to who won the special.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The lack of publicity surrounding this race will help O’Connor. Lower turnout elections favor higher enthusiasm portions of the electorate. It’s not obvious to me, however, what happens if O’Connor wins. Does he then have to win three months later in a regular election? I’d imagine that would be tougher.

Nah, O’Connor could’ve won, but he’s blown it.  He needed to run a much stronger campaign to pull it off and even then, we might’ve simply needed Jay Goyal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I concurr that OConnor is losing; however, in most polls, Trump is over 50 in OH and Fl. Dems can still win, but its harder

[BuckeyeNut]

The lack of publicity surrounding this race will help O’Connor. Lower turnout elections favor higher enthusiasm portions of the electorate. It’s not obvious to me, however, what happens if O’Connor wins. Does he then have to win three months later in a regular election? I’d imagine that would be tougher.

He is going for re-election 3 months later. The election will also be O'Connor vs. Balderson. I think if he wins here, he'll probably win in November. Rematches of special elections in a regular election tend to go to who won the special.

There is still a chance, however, that Melanie Leneghan winds up being the GE nominee. In which case, O’Connor could lose the special by just a few points and then come back to win in November.

[Tender Branson]

The lack of publicity surrounding this race will help O’Connor. Lower turnout elections favor higher enthusiasm portions of the electorate. It’s not obvious to me, however, what happens if O’Connor wins. Does he then have to win three months later in a regular election? I’d imagine that would be tougher.

He is going for re-election 3 months later. The election will also be O'Connor vs. Balderson. I think if he wins here, he'll probably win in November. Rematches of special elections in a regular election tend to go to who won the special.

There is still a chance, however, that Melanie Leneghan winds up being the GE nominee. In which case, O’Connor could lose the special by just a few points and then come back to win in November.

How so ?

She was defeated by 1% in both the special election GOP primary and the GE GOP primary ...

[BuckeyeNut]

The lack of publicity surrounding this race will help O’Connor. Lower turnout elections favor higher enthusiasm portions of the electorate. It’s not obvious to me, however, what happens if O’Connor wins. Does he then have to win three months later in a regular election? I’d imagine that would be tougher.

He is going for re-election 3 months later. The election will also be O'Connor vs. Balderson. I think if he wins here, he'll probably win in November. Rematches of special elections in a regular election tend to go to who won the special.

There is still a chance, however, that Melanie Leneghan winds up being the GE nominee. In which case, O’Connor could lose the special by just a few points and then come back to win in November.

How so ?

She was defeated by 1% in both the special election GOP primary and the GE GOP primary ...

Read back. She’s suing over the GE primary results, saying the recount she asked for in Muskingum was conducted improperly, along with other issues in Franklin and Delaware counties.

[Gass3268]

A great David Weigel piece about this race

Essentially O'Connor has been 100% on protecting the ACA and Social Security and bashing the Trump tax cuts. He was able to get on the air first and define himself before Balderson could. Republicans are starting to grumble a little bit like this could turn into another PA-18. Personally this feels more like AZ-08.

[KingSweden]

A great David Weigel piece about this race

Essentially O'Connor has been 100% on protecting the ACA and Social Security and bashing the Trump tax cuts. He was able to get on the air first and define himself before Balderson could. Republicans are starting to grumble a little bit like this could turn into another PA-18. Personally this feels more like AZ-08.

Funny how these races always seem to start to head that direction innit

[Gass3268]

A great David Weigel piece about this race

Essentially O'Connor has been 100% on protecting the ACA and Social Security and bashing the Trump tax cuts. He was able to get on the air first and define himself before Balderson could. Republicans are starting to grumble a little bit like this could turn into another PA-18. Personally this feels more like AZ-08.

Funny how these races always seem to start to head that direction innit

They really all have, except for TX-27. The next question becomes, does this same occurrence happen nationwide in November?

[Zaybay]

A great David Weigel piece about this race

Essentially O'Connor has been 100% on protecting the ACA and Social Security and bashing the Trump tax cuts. He was able to get on the air first and define himself before Balderson could. Republicans are starting to grumble a little bit like this could turn into another PA-18. Personally this feels more like AZ-08.

Funny how these races always seem to start to head that direction innit

They really all have, except for TX-27. The next question becomes, does this same occurrence happen nationwide in November?

I think so, and its because of one factor. That undecided vote. It seems like in every contest we have, the undecideds go to the D more than the R. This is in contrast to 2010, 2014, and 2016, where the R got most of the undecideds.

I think this race could become a PA-18 if done right. O'Connor has a lot going for him, and its only three weeks out. A lot can change in 3 weeks. Dems have been over preforming in literally every area of America, from MT, to the R suburbs of AZ(seriously though, AZ-08 was probably the biggest surprise of the entire congressional special season, hands down). But, then again, Balderson is rather tough, and the seat is suburban, and less likely to swing than rurals. So, I guess we just have to wait a bit and see how the race develops.

The fact that Balderson did not release an internal after O'Connor is a promising sign.

[BuckeyeNut]

Right now I predict a Democratic loss between 2 and 3%. (Split the dofference and call it 2.5%.) O’Connor could still win by the skin of his teeth, but I would not bet on it. He’s no Lamb, Balderson’s no whatshisname, and the Ohio 12th isn’t remotely similar to PA-18.

PA-18 was filled with voters who used to be solid Democrats and were still open to The Right Democrat (tm). OH-12 has very little of that—minus Mansfield—and really the opposite. It mught be trending D in the Columbus suburbs and Delaware County, but a lot of the district just isn’t there yet. O’Connor actually lost the OH-12 portion of Franklin County in 2016 when he rolled over former Republican Recorder Daphne Hawk with a 14% win.

[BuckeyeNut]

Balderson is on TV with a negative ad that looks like it could backfire. The "Radical Left Wing Group" O'Connor allegedly supported with taxpayer dollars is The Women's Fund of Central Ohio. People are mad and rightly so.

Still, even after O'Connor's latest internal which showed him down 5%, the polling average is Balderson +7%

[LimoLiberal]

Hmm. O'Connor has the facebook enthusiasm, surprisingly, considering Balderson is an established state senator. 4.3K likes to Balderson's 1.6K. Moving this race from Safe R to Likely R in my ratings.

[Gass3268]

DCCC is going up with ads tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1019960903767293953

[BuckeyeNut]

Hmm. O'Connor has the facebook enthusiasm, surprisingly, considering Balderson is an established state senator. 4.3K likes to Balderson's 1.6K. Moving this race from Safe R to Likely R in my ratings.

Franklin County executives like O'Connor represent over 1 million people while State Senators represent ~350k. Don't read too much into social media engagement.

[LimoLiberal]

DCCC going in.

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1019961173079453696

[ON Progressive]

DCCC is going up with ads tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1019960903767293953

Seems like a good sign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good.