The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 4

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.philly.com/news/joe-biden-charlottesville-presidential-campaign-20190422.html

Two sources close to Biden’s campaign told The Inquirer on Friday that they expected him to begin his campaign in Charlottesville on Wednesday, followed by potential events in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Two more sources later confirmed that those plans appeared likely, though they all stressed that the plans were preliminary and might change. The Atlantic first reported that those cities were being considered for a campaign launch.

On Monday, however, one of The Inquirer’s original sources said the considerations involving those sites had been scuttled, and another person close to Biden said definitively that the former vice president would not be traveling to Charlottesville.

Also Monday, a spokesperson for Mayor Jim Kenney’s administration said no permits had been pulled for an event Wednesday on the Benjamin Franklin Parkway, Eakins Oval, or the Philadelphia Museum of Art.

As of Monday afternoon, Biden supporters were still moving forward with plans for a fund-raiser in Philadelphia on Thursday hosted by Comcast executive David L. Cohen. But with the specifics of the former vice president’s roll-out still unclear, even the fund-raising hosts did not yet have final assurances that their event would happen.

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams:

https://www.seattletimes.com/life/stacey-abrams-on-her-new-book-new-fame-and-rumors-about-a-presidential-ticket/

“Here’s the thing,” Abrams said, seeming to search for a new way to answer the candidacy question that just won’t quit. “I think indecision is fine. I am in contemplation and evaluation. To make a good decision, you actually need to think about it, the contours and the consequences.

“There are some moments when urgency demands an immediate decision,” she said. “This is not one of those moments.”
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“I have a lot that I can do to ensure that the voices that were silenced are heard in 2020 and beyond.”

She is working on a book about that, in addition to the romance novels she writes under the name Selena Montgomery. She had a legal and business career — Abrams started a company that makes ready-to-use baby bottles filled with formula; and another that buys invoices so that small companies can get paid faster — before being elected to the Georgia House of Representatives in 2007. She served for 10 years before making a run for governor.

[Mr. Morden]

Thursday is reportedly now Biden day:

https://twitter.com/ArletteSaenz/status/1120726581364838401

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/biden-set-announce-presidential-run-thursday-video-n997596

Former Vice President Joe Biden will announce his presidential bid on Thursday morning with an online video, two sources close to Biden with direct knowledge of the planning confirmed to NBC News.

Biden will then appear in Pittsburgh on Monday for an event at a local union hall, NBC News has learned. Biden will then embark on a tour of the four early voting states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — in the following weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

Hogan, while in NH, says he’s seriously considering a run, and might do so even if he doesn’t think he’s likely to win.  Also says he’ll be visiting 16 states in the next few months:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/gov-larry-hogan-of-maryland-in-new-hampshire-for-politics-and-eggs/2019/04/22/16c57d34-652c-11e9-82ba-fcfeff232e8f_story.html

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said Tuesday he is seriously considering a primary challenge to President Trump, adding that the only reason Trump is not facing obstruction charges is that aides thwarted the president.
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Hogan’s willingness to draw the president’s ire comes as he continues to weigh an insurgent primary challenge backed by the Never Trump wing of the GOP. The governor said he’s been approached “by a lot of people and a growing number of people” since his January inauguration about getting into the race, and he plans to visit 16 states in the next few months as he continues to ponder a run.

He was coy about what he would do there, but mentioned that he planned to visit Utah in June at the invitation of former House Speaker Paul D. Ryan and U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah).
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He said he would [run] even if he could not see a way to win, provided he thought the Republican Party would benefit from a contested primary.

He added, though, that he was not “going to launch a suicide mission” and saw no urgency in getting into the race before the fall.

[Mr. Morden]

A new story says that Abrams is looking to decide on whether to run for Senate "by next week":

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/abrams-cancels-speaking-gig-california-amid-labor-unrest/WYggzgKTGuYzoDPnCtGR5J/

Though I guess I'm unclear on whether that's original reporting here, or if they're just going off the fact that she recently said she's decide within weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

Signs pointing towards Bullock 2020:

https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/new-campaign-finances-point-to-possible-bullock-2020-run

We’ve told you before that sources say if a governor hypothetically were going to run for president, they would probably wait until after their legislative session ends. That wrapped up Thursday.

On Friday, Bullock had a closed-door meeting in Butte, where there were camera crews. He said he had nothing to announce.

We dug deeper into the latest financial reports. His PAC is now paying the salary of Jack Segal. Segal lives in Des Moines, Iowa, and worked for a state representative there. His bio says he "intends to join a 2020 presidential campaign later this year."

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2019/04/26/stacey-abrams-expected-to-announce-decision-on-u-s.html

Stacey Abrams, last year's Democratic nominee for Georgia governor, will announce Monday or Tuesday whether she plans to run for the U.S. Senate in 2020, two sources familiar with her plans told ABC News Friday.

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams:

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-decision-time-approaches-for-stacey-abrams/kjMF1boiDiCDMc1x8y42hN/

Most Georgia Democrats we’ve contacted expect her to bow out of the race against U.S. Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., but leave open the possibility of a White House run.
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Why do we expect Abrams’ decision on Tuesday rather than today? Her voting rights group, Fair Fight Action, has a court hearing Monday afternoon -- on that vast lawsuit challenging Georgia’s voting system. Abrams might not want to steal its thunder.

More Bullock hires:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2019/04/29/new-trade-deal-faces-mounting-resistance-429716

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock is making major staffing moves -- including hiring in Iowa -- the clearest sign yet that he’s nearing a White House run. Bullock just hired Galia Slayen to serve as communications director for his political committee, Big Sky Values PAC. Slayen would be the likely choice to slide into the same role on a presidential campaign.

SLAYEN recently served as comms director for Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s successful 2018 campaign and has worked on statewide races across the country, including in Iowa, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Kentucky.

ALSO COMING ON BOARD IS James Owens, who worked as comms director for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and was the states comms director for NARAL Pro-Choice America. Bullock is no stranger to Iowa and set off new 2020 buzz during a February trip there. His PAC is also bringing on Jeremy Busch, who just finished a stint in Iowa working on the unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign of Democratic nominee Fred Hubbell. Busch was named Iowa press secretary to Bullock’s PAC.

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio:

https://www.amny.com/opinion/columnists/mark-chiusano/bill-de-blasio-2020-president-facebook-pete-1.30443328

Last week, something that has been dormant for the last calendar year suddenly reawakened. Bill de Blasio’s unofficial campaign Facebook page started running advertisements.

“This country has spent decades taking from working people and giving to the one percent. I've had enough,” says one ad.

“With so many Americans struggling to deal with rising costs, it's time for universal health care. Do you agree?” asks another.

Over the last week the de Blasio page ran more than 50 ads for a cost of $13,445, according to Facebook’s political ad archive. Here’s another taste: “President Trump is leading our country in the wrong direction. But in New York — and across the country — progressives are showing how we can build a fairer, more diverse, and more prosperous America. Sign on to join the fight.”

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/29/politics/stacey-abrams-senate-2020/index.html

Stacey Abrams has decided against running for the Senate from Georgia in 2020, according to a Democratic official.

Abrams met with Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer on Monday to inform him of her plans.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Abrams will focus on her voting rights project. She has not decided whether to seek any other office at this time.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/29/politics/stacey-abrams-senate-2020/index.html

Stacey Abrams has decided against running for the Senate from Georgia in 2020, according to a Democratic official.

Abrams met with Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer on Monday to inform him of her plans.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Abrams will focus on her voting rights project. She has not decided whether to seek any other office at this time.

And it looks like she's made it official: No 2020 Senate run for her, but a presidential run hasn't been ruled out:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/30/18300345/stacey-abrams-president-2020

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/politicalwire/status/1123648811384094720

The story used as a source here says his announcement is still two weeks away:

https://ktvh.com/news/2019/05/01/mt-gov-bullock-preparing-to-announce-candidacy-for-president/

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock will announce his bid for the presidency in two weeks, MTN News has learned — adding to the 20 Democrats already running for the 2020 nomination to challenge President Trump.

Bullock, a two-term governor who can’t run for re-election in 2020 because of term limits, isn’t talking publicly yet about his specific plans.

But sources told MTN News the Democratic governor plans to officially unveil his candidacy soon, likely the week of May 13.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/jdickerson/status/1123713439975780354

[Mr. Morden]

There has to be a question of whether these late-entered candidates will qualify for the debates. They have only a few weeks until the first one and need to raise $65K from 40K separate donors. I can see Williamson and Gravel making it but not Bullock or Bennet.

Bullock's already qualified on the basis of polling:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=313612.msg6776457#msg6776457

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cpr.org/news/story/sen-michael-bennet-will-declare-for-president-hes-told-friends

Colorado’s Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet has told friends he will declare for president, multiple sources close to the senator have told CPR. He told people in a conference call on Wednesday.
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A formal announcement is expected in the coming days. Bennet is scheduled Thursday to be on CBS This Morning, “to talk about his plans for the future,” according to a tweet from the show's official account.
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Another source who was on Wednesday’s phone call said Bennet has been given a green light from his doctors and “he's under pressure to get moving if they're going raise the money to be viable and qualify for the debate.”

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/MichaelBennet/status/1123695828093292546

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/michael-bennet-presidential-run

Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., will announce "within days" that he'll be throwing his hat in the ring to join the other 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls, just weeks after he announced he's cancer-free.

A friend of the two-term senator told Fox News on Wednesday that Bennet would announce his plans, as his team announced they have "exciting news to share."

Bennet is scheduled to appear on "CBS This Morning" on Thursday "to talk about his plans for the future."

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/De-Blasio-Decision-Presidential-Run-New-York-City-Elections-2020-US-509392421.html

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio says he will announce this month whether he is joining the growing list of candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for president.

De Blasio said Thursday that he would make his decision "in the month of May." He said he'll let people know as soon as he has something.

[Mr. Morden]

Earlier this week, when Abrams said she wasn't running for Senate, she said she thought she was better suited to an executive role, but gave no timeline about a decision on running for president, governor, or anything else:

https://www.wabe.org/stacey-abrams-says-she-wont-run-for-the-senate-next-year/

[Mr. Morden]

The NY Daily News says de Blasio is planning to announce next week:

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-de-blasio-2020-president-white-house-campaign-announcement-20190503-xsjuocb7zfhqxhh5vmoi3dup5q-story.html

Mayor de Blasio is expected to announce he’s running for president next week, according to three sources with knowledge of the plans.

The 2020 announcement could come as early as de Blasio’s birthday on Wednesday, when he’ll turn 58, said one source. The kickoff was initially expected this week but pushed back, according to another source.

De Blasio’s federal political action committee, Fairness PAC, recently polled Iowa voters. The PAC also bankrolled the mayor’s recent travel to key early voting primary states, including trips to Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Fairness PAC spokesman Mike Casca — who took an unpaid leave of absence from City Hall last month to work for the committee – said “no decision” has been made yet and wouldn’t explicitly deny that de Blasio was announcing a campaign next week.

“Very hard to announce something without a decision – nearly impossible, some might say,” Casca said in a text message on Friday.

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams hints at another run for governor:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/In-Houston-Stacey-Abrams-revs-up-Democrats-over-13818046.php

"I'm here to tell you a secret that makes Breitbart and Tucker Carlson go crazy: We won,” Abrams said. “I am not delusional. I know I am not the governor of Georgia - possibly yet."

Regarding de Blasio: It sounds like different members of his team are giving different accounts with regard to the accuracy of the NY Daily News report suggesting that he’s about to enter the race:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Mayor-Bill-de-Blasios-Team-Denies-Report-on-2020-Campaign-Announcement-509448351.html

After the Daily News reported Friday that de Blasio will enter the race on his 58th birthday next Wednesday, Mike Casca, the spokesman for his political action committee, Fairness PAC, said: "Very hard to announce something without a decision — nearly impossible, some might say,” Casca said in a statement provided to News 4.

Additional City Hall insiders tried to dismiss the report, the mayor hasn’t yet made up his mind.

One close advisor, however, told News 4 “he is doing this,” adding that the announcement is imminent.

NY1 says that de Blasio “still has not made a final decision”, however it looks like the pieces are being put in place for a run:

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2019/05/03/another-sign-bill-de-blasio-is-considering-presidential-run-2020-new-york-city-mayor

NY1 learned Friday that Mike Casca, the mayor's top political communications aide, is not only leaving the PAC but City Hall as well, and two new City Hall staff members are joining de Blasio's political operation. De Blasio's Fairness PAC has been orchestrating his out-of-town political trips to places like Iowa and New Hampshire these past few weeks.

Sources close to the mayor insist he has still not made a final decision about whether to join the 2020 Democratic field. But signs increasingly make it clear that the mayor is laying the groundwork for a run.

Also:

In a radio interview on WNYC this morning, de Blasio spoke about the factors that he is weighing as he tries to make up his mind about whether to run.

"I, in making any decision, have to weigh family, have to weigh what I think is in the interest of New York City and the ability to get things done for New York City," de Blasio said on The Brian Lehrer Show. "I also have to weigh how we have a different and better discussion in this country about our future. Because, right now, New York City is hurting because of a whole host of federal policies that are broken."

Politico has more on the de Blasio aides going to work on his PAC:

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2019/05/03/de-blasio-city-hall-staffers-decamp-for-pac-1006769

De Blasio’s deputy press secretary Olivia Lapeyrolerie and Deputy Director of Executive Operations Alexandra Kopel, are planning to use their vacation days to go on leave from City Hall to work for the PAC, a person close to the committee told POLITICO. They will join de Blasio’s intergovernmental affairs director Jon Paul Lupo, who is also using vacation days to work for the mayor’s potential campaign. Lapeyrolerie will handle the PAC’s press and communications, while Kopel will be handling operations, the person said.

And Mike Casca, who had been de Blasio’s communications director until last month when he left City Hall to work for de Blasio’s PAC, is leaving the de Blasio administration altogether.

Casca, who came to City Hall in 2017 after working on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign, doesn’t have any current plans to work for another presidential campaign, a source close to the PAC said. Casca confirmed to POLITICO that he is not returning to City Hall.

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/why-bill-de-blasio-running-president/588778/

Multiple people close to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio gave up trying to talk him out of running for president earlier this year. Now he’s reportedly going to try to win Iowa and New Hampshire without most of his friends—or even people on his payroll—supporting him.

“Ugh,” said one former aide when asked about de Blasio actually going forward with his rumored 2020 campaign. “Lunacy,” said another. Others declined to comment for this story. One person who knows de Blasio well cited too much loyalty to speak anonymously about his prospects. No point in just being mean, the person said.

De Blasio is expected to announce a presidential run in the coming days with a skeletal campaign team staffed by junior aides on vacation from their jobs at city hall. He’s trying to do what Michael Bloomberg, Rudy Giuliani, John Lindsay, and every New York mayor since 1868 has failed to do: Get elected to a higher office.

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio says no decision this week:

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2019/05/07/bill-de-blasio-says-he-will-not-make-2020-presidential-run-decision-this-week

Mayor Bill de Blasio confirmed Monday night that he will not come to a decision on a potential presidential run this week.

Speaking in his weekly "Mondays with the Mayor" interview on NY1, de Blasio denied reports that he would decide this week.

EDIT: Here's the exact quote:

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2019/05/07/de-blasio-delays-2020-decision/

“Not the night and not the week,” he said Monday in an interview with NY1. “There was a story that assumed a specific thing that never was and we said, ‘you can’t have an announcement before there’s a decision.’”

[Mr. Morden]

More de Blasio:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/is-bill-de-blasio-really-running-for-president-in-2020.html

According to people familiar with the mayor’s thinking, de Blasio remains committed to making a decision before the end of the month. The mayor is still in conversation with his family about the toll a run would take, but people who have spoken with him say he is leaning toward a campaign.

A de Blasio presidential campaign would be a lean operation, one centered mostly around the mayor and his immediate family. The brain trust that helped him in his come-from-behind victory when he ran for mayor in 2013 and guided his first couple of years in office has largely vanished, and as of late, the defections from his inner circle at City Hall have increased. Still, should the mayor run, his focus, people close to him said, would be on income inequality, the same issue that propelled de Blasio to a victory in his 2013 campaign for mayor.

Also, his latest public comment on the matter was to say that his slow decision timeline is unrelated to ethics questions:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/De-Blasio-Undecided-On-Presidential-Run-Insists-Not-Related-Alleged-Scandals-509607071.html

The mayor insisted Tuesday afternoon that the reason he has not made a decision is not related to the renewed concerns regarding conflicts of interest and an alleged pay-to-play culture within his administration.

“All these things were looked at, and I actually think when a bunch of people look at something and come back with nothing, it makes the case pretty damn clear,” de Blasio said.

[Mr. Morden]

Howard Schultz seems to have paused his presidential exploration:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/howard-schultz-has-largely-stopped-his-2020-presidential-prep-work

In the past two weeks, Schultz has largely disappeared, leaving the impression that the presidential campaign he was flirting with won’t actually come to fruition.

His aides say that’s not the case. Bill Burton, a senior Schultz adviser, said that Schultz was still considering a bid and remained committed to the timeframe he had offered for a formal decision, which should come sometime “in the late spring or early summer.”

“It is a long time until election day 2020 and there are a lot of that inputs that Howard it is going to consider before he makes his decision,” Burton said.

But if Schultz is still gathering inputs before he makes his final determination, he is doing so privately. He has not made a public appearance since going to Arizona to talk about border security and the economy in late April. He was scheduled to visit Utah and to talk at the NationSwell Summit on Solutions in San Francisco and to tour and appear in conversation at the EarthX Energy Expo in Dallas. But those events were cancelled.

The story goes on to say that he’s been recovering from back surgery, and yet even the parts of presidential campaign exploration that doesn’t require public appearances seem to have stopped as well, with no new posts to Facebook or Instagram in over a week.

According to Facebook's ad archives, Schultz has not run an ad on the platform since April 23, when his account posted a spot that declared "It's Time To Un-Partisan.” Since Easter, Schultz has tweeted just twice. The first was to promote an op-ed he wrote on his trip to Arizona. That was on April 29. The second, and last, tweet came on Monday, when he tweeted a winky emoji at someone wondering if he was a character in Game of Thrones, after a cup of Starbucks was mistakenly included in a scene of the popular HBO show.

And it’s not just Schultz. Neither Steve Schmidt, his top adviser, nor Burton have tweeted since late January.

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams gives another hint suggesting that another run for governor may be more likely than a run for president:

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/05/stacey-abrams-next-steps-osborne-association/

Those who know de Blasio “say the mayor hasn’t made a final decision yet”:

https://news.yahoo.com/bill-de-blasio-2020-president-campaign-delusional-123227349.html

But he has some people in mind for top campaign jobs:

As de Blasio weighs a formal bid for the White House, multiple sources told Yahoo News his political operation is being led by Jon Paul Lupo, a former official in his administration who left City Hall to join Fairness PAC. Prior to working for de Blasio, Lupo was chief of staff to former Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz. Before joining Markowitz’s team in 2011, Lupo worked on House and Senate campaigns for Democrats Tim Johnson and Jim Webb. Sources also told Yahoo News that Jim Crounse, a longtime de Blasio ally who worked on the 2013 race and specializes in direct mail campaigns, will have a role on the mayor’s team if he pulls the trigger and enters the presidential race.