The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 4

[AltWorlder]

If any of Bennet, Swalwell, Ryan, de Blasio or Moulton get in: they're idiots. They missed their chance.

de Blasio aside, they have lower name recognition than even Buttigieg or Yang. Do they even have unique policies or something to offer that sets them apart? Bullock and McAuliffe, too.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

If any of Bennet, Swalwell, Ryan, de Blasio or Moulton get in: they're idiots. They missed their chance.

de Blasio aside, they have lower name recognition than even Buttigieg or Yang. Do they even have unique policies or something to offer that sets them apart? Bullock and McAuliffe, too.

Part of that is because they haven’t announced. Bullock and McAuliffe bring moderation to the table. I guess Ryan and Moulton do too. Not sure about Bennet. I loved when he ripped Ted Cruz to pieces, but I’m not sure that he would find a niche either. I do know that he’s against packing SCOTUS though.

[scutosaurus]

If any of Bennet, Swalwell, Ryan, de Blasio or Moulton get in: they're idiots. They missed their chance. They won't qualify for the first debate - so why embarrass yourself? I don't get it. All of them bar Ryan have significantly higher profile candidates from their home states already in the race. So it's not like they'll have that fundraising or polling advantage going for them.

Incorrect. Bennet is still an upper tier candidate, and much more viable than gaffe machine Hickenlooper to boot. He's already a third of the way to qualifying for the debates through polling (which consistently shows him having the lowest disapproval ratings of any candidate, even among those less known than him) and he hasn't even entered the race; there's literally no way he doesn't get in. Really the only thing weighing him down is O'Rourke, who draws on a very similar base.

If any of Bennet, Swalwell, Ryan, de Blasio or Moulton get in: they're idiots. They missed their chance.

de Blasio aside, they have lower name recognition than even Buttigieg or Yang. Do they even have unique policies or something to offer that sets them apart? Bullock and McAuliffe, too.

Part of that is because they haven’t announced. Bullock and McAuliffe bring moderation to the table. I guess Ryan and Moulton do too. Not sure about Bennet. I loved when he ripped Ted Cruz to pieces, but I’m not sure that he would find a niche either. I do know that he’s against packing SCOTUS though.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/03/senator-michael-bennet-weighing-run-president/583993/

This is a good profile on Bennet I think. It provides some good insights into his career and focuses as a legislator. I'd also read into the American Family Act, CLEAN Politics Act, and MedicareX, which have been some of his signature policy proposals over the past two years.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

If any of Bennet, Swalwell, Ryan, de Blasio or Moulton get in: they're idiots. They missed their chance.

de Blasio aside, they have lower name recognition than even Buttigieg or Yang. Do they even have unique policies or something to offer that sets them apart? Bullock and McAuliffe, too.

Part of that is because they haven’t announced. Bullock and McAuliffe bring moderation to the table. I guess Ryan and Moulton do too. Not sure about Bennet. I loved when he ripped Ted Cruz to pieces, but I’m not sure that he would find a niche either. I do know that he’s against packing SCOTUS though.

Bullock and McAuliffe bring very little to the table that Hickenlooper doesn't already have though. Bullock maybe is a little less compromising than Hick and McAuliffe has more institutional support behind him (not that it really matters much considering how much the party apparatus has already jumped in with more progressive candidates). But the whole shtick is above-politics governor of a purple-ish state, uniting people by making good and productive compromise, having executive experience, blah blah is pretty much the whole of Hickenlooper's campaign. Not to mention the fact that I think there's going to be very little appetite for that in the primary electorate so it's already fighting over table scraps.

Bennet... geez, I dunno man. I've been following him since before I moved out here. Obama really though highly of him and he's obviously a bright guy. Notable legislative effort is Brown-Bennet anti-child poverty bill (of course Sherrod Brown gets hailed as a hero for this and Bennet gets totally ignored) which is actually a great idea even if it's DOA. The big strike against him is taking some votes in favor of banking deregulation. What the hell were you thinking dude? Otherwise he would be a good candidate if half of his Senate colleagues weren't also running. There's just no oxygen left for him. His campaign would basically be the last refuge of institutional Democrats but honestly who wants after four years of institutional abuse by Trump and several decades of institutional dysfunction in Congress?

[AltWorlder]

Beyond Hickenlooper, isn't Delaney already the other go-to boring moderate middle-aged white guy bipartisan compromise candidate?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Beyond Hickenlooper, isn't Delaney already the other go-to boring moderate middle-aged white guy bipartisan compromise candidate?

So much of politics and candidate choice is personal and identity based, though. Hickenlooper for all of his faults is very charismatic and optimistic. Among people who follow politics Delaney is a joke and among people who don't they won't hear of Delaney in the first place.

[AltWorlder]

Fair enough. Suppose Bennet, or any of these other guys, outshines the rest and becomes the top of the moderate institutional Democrats grouping. I'm assuming that there's room for only one or two of them to differentiate themselves. Do they end up as the Tim Pawlenty '12 or Evan Bayh '08 candidate of this race?

[scutosaurus]

Beyond Hickenlooper, isn't Delaney already the other go-to boring moderate middle-aged white guy bipartisan compromise candidate?

That isn't a good description of Bennet at all. He's a pragmatist who wants to provide legitimate solutions rather than just compromise with the right, and he's sure as hell not boring.

[henster]

I think Buttigieg has taken whatever lane Bennet, Hick, Bullock might've been hoping for. His base from what I've seen is definitely the less ideological center of the road voters they hoped to depend on.

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Ryan will be in Iowa on Saturday, March 30th for the "Heartland Forum", joining already-in-the-race candidates Castro, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Warren for that event:

https://www.evensi.us/heartland-forum-vista-university/298356525

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams has launched a new nonprofit group aimed at ensuring hard-to-count populations are counted in the 2020 census:

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/abrams-starts-nonprofit-seeking-fair-count-2020-census/Fx2hgOatiKBaXC5j1YPVDO/

The organization, Fair Count, will focus on minorities, non-English speakers, renters and others who are more likely to be skipped in the once-a-decade headcount of the U.S. population. In Georgia, the group said, that could include as much as 20 percent of the state’s population spanning parts of 86 counties.
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It’s the latest public policy initiative by Abrams, a potential 2020 candidate who founded the group. Since her narrow defeat in November to Gov. Brian Kemp, she has worked to raise the profile of Fair Fight, a voting rights group she started that has challenged Georgia’s electoral policies in court.

Fair Count will be led by Rebecca DeHart, the former executive director of the Democratic Party of Georgia. Jeanine Abrams McLean, an evolutionary biologist and Abrams’ sister, will be the group’s program director.

[PaperKooper]

Since this hasn't been posted here yet:

https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1109973655570841600

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams has launched a new nonprofit group aimed at ensuring hard-to-count populations are counted in the 2020 census:

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/abrams-starts-nonprofit-seeking-fair-count-2020-census/Fx2hgOatiKBaXC5j1YPVDO/

The organization, Fair Count, will focus on minorities, non-English speakers, renters and others who are more likely to be skipped in the once-a-decade headcount of the U.S. population. In Georgia, the group said, that could include as much as 20 percent of the state’s population spanning parts of 86 counties.
.
.
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It’s the latest public policy initiative by Abrams, a potential 2020 candidate who founded the group. Since her narrow defeat in November to Gov. Brian Kemp, she has worked to raise the profile of Fair Fight, a voting rights group she started that has challenged Georgia’s electoral policies in court.

Fair Count will be led by Rebecca DeHart, the former executive director of the Democratic Party of Georgia. Jeanine Abrams McLean, an evolutionary biologist and Abrams’ sister, will be the group’s program director.

This woman is amazing.

[Xing]

Abrams has launched a new nonprofit group aimed at ensuring hard-to-count populations are counted in the 2020 census:

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/abrams-starts-nonprofit-seeking-fair-count-2020-census/Fx2hgOatiKBaXC5j1YPVDO/

The organization, Fair Count, will focus on minorities, non-English speakers, renters and others who are more likely to be skipped in the once-a-decade headcount of the U.S. population. In Georgia, the group said, that could include as much as 20 percent of the state’s population spanning parts of 86 counties.
.
.
.
It’s the latest public policy initiative by Abrams, a potential 2020 candidate who founded the group. Since her narrow defeat in November to Gov. Brian Kemp, she has worked to raise the profile of Fair Fight, a voting rights group she started that has challenged Georgia’s electoral policies in court.

Fair Count will be led by Rebecca DeHart, the former executive director of the Democratic Party of Georgia. Jeanine Abrams McLean, an evolutionary biologist and Abrams’ sister, will be the group’s program director.

Massive FF!

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Ryan says he’s “in the middle” on his decision:

http://www.vindy.com/news/2019/mar/25/tim-ryan-decide-shortly-presidential-bid/

“In the next few weeks definitely got to pull the trigger one way or the other, got to make a decision,” Ryan told The Vindicator on Monday before speaking at the Rotary Club of Youngstown luncheon.

Asked if he has leaning either way, Ryan of Howland, D-13th, said with a laugh: “I am passionately in the middle.”

Abrams uses some odd wording to describe her 2020, saying her choice is “not very planned out”:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/435592-stacey-abrams-addresses-biden-rumors-we-had-a-lovely-lunch

On Sunday, she said that her choice whether to run for president is "not very planned out."

"I am thinking about it," she added.

Not sure what that means.  Just that she hasn’t made her decision yet?  Or does she mean something else?

Swalwell’s office says he has someone in the ground in South Carolina assisting Democratic candidate Tina Belge in the state Senate special election there:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/25/2020-democrats-south-carolina-iowa-1235229

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ArletteSaenz/status/1110686432778166273

[Mr. Morden]

More Abrams, on her decision about the Senate and the presidency:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/stacey-abrams-2020-813613/

The senate “was never the place I wanted to be,” Abrams said. “I’ve really had to readjust my thinking in recent months, and I am torn. I’m not being coy when I say I don’t know what I’m going to do. When you’ve spent more than a decade planning for one job, it is a difficult thing to readjust your sights. But more importantly, I think you have to do a job because it’s the job you want,” she added. “Not because it’s a stepping stone to another job. Not because people are asking you to do it. Because, if you’re only doing it to satisfy someone else, you will not do it well. And, it cannot be because it’s open. This work is too hard.”
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I can understand why someone who had just endured what Abrams had wouldn’t want to immediately subject herself to a 2020 campaign. For that matter, why would she want to be president?

“The reason I want to be part of the conversation about running for president is that too many people dismiss the idea,” she said. “This is not to cast aspersions on anyone else, but with an identical set of skills and identical set of experiences, to be discounted because I don’t look the way we think you need to look, or I’m not from a space where we think I should be from, and that is the only determinant that differs between whether I am lifted up as a candidate or not. That’s wrong.

“Now, whether I run this time or run in the future,” Abrams continued, “I believe we need leaders who actually want to lead everyone. I believe we have to have leaders who care about foreign policy and domestic policy, but who care about the least of these, who care about poverty, who understand that climate change is real, that my body is mine, that gun safety does not diminish the Second Amendment, and that has to be someone willing to have that conversation in Montana and in Mississippi and in Michigan as well as on Manhattan Beach. You’ve got to be willing to have that conversation everywhere.

“And so I don’t know whether this is the moment for me, and that’s what I’m going to think about. But I think I am more than capable of leading a country that is contained of so many good people who want what’s right. I’m a good leader, I’m a good executive, I’ve been outside the U.S. a few times, and I’ve done a little bit of foreign policy. But most importantly, I’m smart enough to be in charge of this country.”

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/27/stacey-abrams-2020-candidate-1238628

Stacey Abrams said on Wednesday that she believes a woman or minority candidate will win the Democratic primary in 2020 amid speculation that the former Georgia gubernatorial candidate is being considered as a running mate for former Vice President Joe Biden.
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“I think that the success I had in our election transforming the electorate, the work I've done as a business leader, as a civic leader, as a political leader positions me to be just as capable as becoming president of the United States as anyone running,” she said. “My responsibility, though, is to make sure I'm running for the right reasons and at the right time.”

Kasich:

https://www.theeagleonline.com/article/2019/03/john-kasich-talks-bipartisanship-potential-presidential-run-at-wonk-of-the-year-event

In terms of another presidential run for himself, Kasich said that his “options are on the table,” but he wouldn’t run if he didn’t think he could win.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden to talk about the logistics of an Easter week announcement with his top advisors, but he still hasn't firmly decided that he'll be announcing that he *is* running as opposed to that he *isn't* running:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/joe-biden-discusses-2020-presidential-campaign-kickoff.html

Joe Biden wants to declare whether he will run for president as late as Easter week, according to people familiar with the matter, and he plans to meet with top advisors next week to discuss how he would roll out a 2020 campaign.

Biden and his confidants are slated to hold a series of meetings in Washington, D.C., where they will talk about the themes he would feature in a campaign-announcement video, giving voters a preview of his platform, according to a person with direct knowledge of the plans.

Biden, who ran for president in 1988 and 2008, would also launch a campaign from his home state of Delaware, this person added.
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Still, people close to Biden warn that even as he says he is leaning toward running, he has not made a final decision on jumping into the crowded Democratic field.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Joe Biden is insufferable.

[eric82oslo]

It's pretty clear at this point that Abrams has said no to being Biden's running mate. Good for her. I hope she runs, she would be a great addition to the Democratic debates. I believe she is the second greatest at debating this year after Andrew Yang. Plus she wuld crush Booker and Harris in the south, I feel quite confident about that.

I forgot Jay Inslee. He's also a killer at debating! Especially when it comes to climate change issues. He will surprise us all, and do much better than anyone thinks.

[bluesolid]

cnn.com/2019/03/27/politics/terry-mcauliffe-potential-2020-bid/

(CNN)Terry McAuliffe is moving closer to a 2020 presidential run, Democrats close to the former Virginia governor tell CNN.

McAuliffe has been telling Democratic allies that he is leaning toward jumping into the Democratic presidential race next month, according to three people who have spoken to him. The former governor has long said he would make a decision by the end of March, with a potential announcement later in April.

[RI]

cnn.com/2019/03/27/politics/terry-mcauliffe-potential-2020-bid/

(CNN)Terry McAuliffe is moving closer to a 2020 presidential run, Democrats close to the former Virginia governor tell CNN.

McAuliffe has been telling Democratic allies that he is leaning toward jumping into the Democratic presidential race next month, according to three people who have spoken to him. The former governor has long said he would make a decision by the end of March, with a potential announcement later in April.

why

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

cnn.com/2019/03/27/politics/terry-mcauliffe-potential-2020-bid/

(CNN)Terry McAuliffe is moving closer to a 2020 presidential run, Democrats close to the former Virginia governor tell CNN.

McAuliffe has been telling Democratic allies that he is leaning toward jumping into the Democratic presidential race next month, according to three people who have spoken to him. The former governor has long said he would make a decision by the end of March, with a potential announcement later in April.

There's so much wrong with this, but thankfully he has zero chance of getting the nomination.


He's less electable than Hillary was in 2016, and that's really saying something.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

cnn.com/2019/03/27/politics/terry-mcauliffe-potential-2020-bid/

(CNN)Terry McAuliffe is moving closer to a 2020 presidential run, Democrats close to the former Virginia governor tell CNN.

McAuliffe has been telling Democratic allies that he is leaning toward jumping into the Democratic presidential race next month, according to three people who have spoken to him. The former governor has long said he would make a decision by the end of March, with a potential announcement later in April.

why