The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 4

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

WaPo story on Biden’s reaction to the Flores story:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-bidens-affectionate-physical-style-with-women-comes-under-scrutiny/2019/03/31/a41a81d0-5275-11e9-8d28-f5149e5a2fda_story.html

He is still believed to be leaning toward entering the presidential race in late April.

But then there’s this odd phrasing from the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/31/us/politics/joe-biden-flores.html

Mr. Biden’s advisers indicated on Sunday that the accusation would not dissuade him from entering the 2020 campaign, which they suggest he still intends to do at the end of April or just after.

"At the end of April or just after"?  So just after the end of April would be May?  Is Team Biden now suggesting that he might not announce his intentions until May?

It's Joe Biden, do you expect anything else?

[JRP1994]

Biden will be the frontrunner the moment he enters the race, so as long as he can maintain a lead in the polls without announcing, there's no need to announce early. He can delay announcement for a while since he doesn't have to worry about qualifying for the debates, and delay any post-announcement bump he might get until later in the cycle.

But his people need to shut up about "maybe he'll announce on X date.... nope, actually it might be in a couple weeks..... nope, actually might not be until May." If he's going to wait to announce, his people need to be quiet about it, because it's running the risk of making strategic patience look like indecisiveness.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like McAuliffe didn’t use that radio interview to annouce his decision.  Just said that he missed his deadline for a decision, because he’s still thinking about it:

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1112693224215363585

Meanwhile, Abrams says that the new abortion bill in Georgia might prompt her to run for governor again rather than president or Senate:

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2019/mar/31/abrams-calls-georgias-abortibill-evil-says-it/491708/

But for all the attention, Abrams has maintained that her goal since she was a child was to occupy the governor's mansion that Kemp now calls home. She said legislation like the abortion bill could lead her to challenge Kemp in 2022.
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Earlier this year, Abrams said she would decide her next step by late March or early April. That deadline has come, but she is still undecided. During an interview after Sunday's event, she said she is still researching what position fits best for her.

She added that her decision has been delayed by the paperback release of her book, "Lead from the Outside." Abrams said she did not do a good job of touring and promoting the work when it originally came out in April 2018.

Asked whether her delay is keeping other Democrats out of a potential race against Perdue, she said, "Part of my responsibility as a leader is to make certain that I make decisions in a timely fashion that will allow others to make their decisions. But I've said to every single candidate that has expressed interest in running that they should do what they need to do. If they want to run, then they should step up. I appreciate the deference that some have shown, but that is certainly not something I expect, and it's not something I have asked for."

[Mr. Morden]

Amash still not ruling out a run for president.  Says he hasn't "thought through" whether to run for reelection for the House, run for Senate, or run for president:

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2019/04/isolated-in-gop-congressman-justin-amash-considers-third-party-presidential-run.html

Amash is hesitant to throw his hat in the ring, but said “someone” needs to run for president to fix what he considers to be a broken system that values party loyalty over integrity. Amash, who hails from West Michigan’s Cascade Township, has flirted with the idea of a presidential run at Libertarian events and an interview CNN’s Jake Tapper, but told MLive he hasn’t “thought through” plans to run for president, re-election or U.S. Senate.

[RI]

But April Fool's Day itself is probably not a great launch day, so maybe one of them will announce on April 2nd?

Oh god we're going to get some fake announcements, aren't we?

Biden is done, they say, then my bet is...
https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton/status/791263939015376902

That might just be the most arrogant, narcissistic tweet ever made.

[Harlow]

But April Fool's Day itself is probably not a great launch day, so maybe one of them will announce on April 2nd?

Oh god we're going to get some fake announcements, aren't we?

Biden is done, they say, then my bet is...
https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton/status/791263939015376902

That might just be the most arrogant, narcissistic tweet ever made.

I mean, you know it’s not Hillary who tweeted that, right?

[America Needs R'hllor]

But April Fool's Day itself is probably not a great launch day, so maybe one of them will announce on April 2nd?

Oh god we're going to get some fake announcements, aren't we?

Biden is done, they say, then my bet is...
https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton/status/791263939015376902

That might just be the most arrogant, narcissistic tweet ever made.

You've got, like, years of Trump tweeting that he's a genius and the best at everything.

[JG]

But April Fool's Day itself is probably not a great launch day, so maybe one of them will announce on April 2nd?

Oh god we're going to get some fake announcements, aren't we?

Biden is done, they say, then my bet is...
https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton/status/791263939015376902

That might just be the most arrogant, narcissistic tweet ever made.

You do realize that it's her team that probably tweeted that? And that every general election nominees are usually introduced as the next president of the United-States by their team, right?

[Rookie Yinzer]

But April Fool's Day itself is probably not a great launch day, so maybe one of them will announce on April 2nd?

Oh god we're going to get some fake announcements, aren't we?

Biden is done, they say, then my bet is...
https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton/status/791263939015376902

That might just be the most arrogant, narcissistic tweet ever made.

What candidate in the midst of a general election wouldn’t refer to themselves as the future president..... The hate is strong.

[Mr. Morden]

At a fundraiser on Friday, Swalwell reportedly let slip that he's announcing in two weeks:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2019/04/01/trump-and-newsom-clash-on-central-america-khanna-pushes-back-on-dccc-presidential-candidates-in-sf-2020-congress-field-coalesces-418453

Rep. Eric Swalwell at his dinner fundraiser at the same third floor hotspot at John’s Grill, getting about 80 big donor types in the door. Overheard from Swalwell: “Don’t tell anybody, but I’m announcing in two weeks.”

Conceivably, that announcement might be the April 14th event that Swalwell tweeted about the day before:

https://twitter.com/ericswalwell/status/1111456194089181185

[Sestak]

At a fundraiser on Friday, Swalwell reportedly let slip that he's announcing in two weeks:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2019/04/01/trump-and-newsom-clash-on-central-america-khanna-pushes-back-on-dccc-presidential-candidates-in-sf-2020-congress-field-coalesces-418453

Rep. Eric Swalwell at his dinner fundraiser at the same third floor hotspot at John’s Grill, getting about 80 big donor types in the door. Overheard from Swalwell: “Don’t tell anybody, but I’m announcing in two weeks.”

Conceivably, that announcement might be the April 14th event that Swalwell tweeted about the day before:

https://twitter.com/ericswalwell/status/1111456194089181185

Lmao...idiot.

One bright spot is maybe this means he vacated his House seat?...nah, probably drops back down to it, unfortunately.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I really want to know the thought process of people like Swalwell and Moulton. Like.... nobody gives a damn about you. Why are you wasting time and energy? Other than one issue/symbolism candidates like Gravel and Inslee I have no idea why any white man besides the three B’s are even entering.

[scutosaurus]

I really want to know the thought process of people like Swalwell and Moulton. Like.... nobody gives a damn about you. Why are you wasting time and energy? Other than one issue/symbolism candidates like Gravel and Inslee I have no idea why any white man besides the three B’s are even entering.

Beto, Bennet, Buttigieg!

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

[quote author=scutosaurunk=topic=316215.msg6736639#msg6736639 date=1554141678
I really want to know the thought process of people like Swalwell and Moulton. Like.... nobody gives a damn about you. Why are you wasting time and energy? Other than one issue/symbolism candidates like Gravel and Inslee I have no idea why any white man besides the three B’s are even entering.

Beto, Bennet, Buttigieg!
[/quote]

Say's who? I think the THREEE B"S ARE going to be: Be Best Bolsaonaro!

[Progressive Pessimist]

But April Fool's Day itself is probably not a great launch day, so maybe one of them will announce on April 2nd?

Oh god we're going to get some fake announcements, aren't we?

Biden is done, they say, then my bet is...
https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton/status/791263939015376902

That tweet is depressing in every way. And I don't even mean that in a condescending way. I wish she was President.

Given how 2018 went vs what would've happened, I disagree...even if Donnelly/McCaskill/Nelson both squandered their chances and Beto didn't quite pull through enough which prevented the Senate from flipping.

See, I can never accept that. 2018 would have had to have featured the Democrats winning literally everything for me to subscribe to that. Yes, the 2018 midterms under a President Clinton would have been a disaster, but that's still not worth having Trump as President, to me. That also ignores the fact that a Clinton win in 2016 may have featured the Democrats making at least some more gains in the Senate-Pennsylvania for sure, and maybe also Missouri and Wisconsin. At the very least a President Clinton would have been able to at least try and get a Supreme Court Justice nominee of her's through the Senate and have an easier time of it. That alone would have been worth it. Furthermore, the losses in 2018 would have been slightly offset by those gains, no matter how small.

[OneJ]

WaPo story on Biden’s reaction to the Flores story:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-bidens-affectionate-physical-style-with-women-comes-under-scrutiny/2019/03/31/a41a81d0-5275-11e9-8d28-f5149e5a2fda_story.html

He is still believed to be leaning toward entering the presidential race in late April.

But then there’s this odd phrasing from the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/31/us/politics/joe-biden-flores.html

Mr. Biden’s advisers indicated on Sunday that the accusation would not dissuade him from entering the 2020 campaign, which they suggest he still intends to do at the end of April or just after.

"At the end of April or just after"?  So just after the end of April would be May?  Is Team Biden now suggesting that he might not announce his intentions until May?

I’m not sure that this keeping us waiting game should continue. I wouldn’t be happy about him running, particularly with the current predicament he’s in right now, but I would feel more at ease if he made up his mind by now.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's more detail on what McAuliffe said on that radio show:

https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/mcauliffe-says-he-s-very-close-to-deciding-on-run/article_d0041be6-437d-5cd1-b08d-c2bf998257fd.html

In an hourlong interview with conservative radio host John Fredericks, McAuliffe acknowledged that his self-imposed March 31 announcement deadline has now passed. But he said he was still “going through the process,” making 60-80 phone calls a day and talking to policy experts to test the waters for a possible presidential campaign.

“We’ll have a decision shortly. We’re going to do it in my timetable,” said McAuliffe, who served as governor from 2014 to 2018.
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“There may not be oxygen. ... We may be in a place that, you know, people talk about identity politics all the time, person of color or women, we don’t know. But you don’t know unless you give it a try,” McAuliffe said.
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McAuliffe said his family is largely supportive of a presidential bid, but he’ll do whatever he decides is in “the best interest of the country.”

“If I don’t do it, I’m going to figure something out,” McAuliffe said. “Get out of bed the next day, fight like a dog and have a great time doing it.”

[Rookie Yinzer]

There may not be oxygen. ... We may be in a place that, you know, people talk about identity politics all the time, person of color or women, we don’t know. But you don’t know unless you give it a try,” McAuliffe said.

[Mr. Morden]

Axios says people in Bloomberg's orbit claim he might reconsider his decision not to run, now that Biden is on the ropes:

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-election-michael-bloomberg-biden-2e19cd85-975d-43b4-a7ac-b25359b82b82.html

Michael Bloomberg might still run for president in 2020, especially if former Vice President Joe Biden winds up not getting in, according to people who have discussed the matter with the former New York mayor.

Between the lines: These people tell me that Bloomberg, 77, who announced March 5 that he wouldn't run, might reconsider if a centrist lane were to open up. The most likely scenario for that would be if Biden, 76, whose displays of public affection have burst into a major issue, were to stay out or fade fast.

[Mr. Morden]

Fwiw, Coons still a believer that Team Biden is going full speed ahead:

https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/1113121699183104006

Though I guess even that contains some weasel words.  Saying that he's "preparing" doesn't mean he's certain to pull the trigger.

[Mr. Morden]

Another story saying that a Biden announcement is “expected” to come late this month (after Easter), but that he hasn’t yet made a final decision about whether he’s running:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/02/politics/joe-biden-2020-undeterred/index.html

Joe Biden and his team are making it clear to supporters and donors that they are moving forward with plans for a possible 2020 presidential run, insisting the former vice president is undeterred by allegations that he made some women feel uncomfortable in his interactions with them.

People close to Biden say he and his team are taking seriously the experiences the women are sharing, and his aides are cognizant that the way Biden interacts with voters on the campaign trail will continue to be examined if he runs for president. And his advisers are also aware that his rivals -- both Democratic candidates and President Donald Trump -- could also fan the flames surrounding the allegations.

One source in Biden's orbit says the current debate unfolding about Biden's conduct has heightened his awareness of the criticism he may face on a number of issues -- including his handling of Anita Hill's 1991 testimony -- if he enters the presidential race and that he is prepared for what's ahead. An announcement of his plans is expected to come as soon as this month, potentially after the Easter holiday, sources familiar with the discussions said. A source close to Biden said the former vice president hasn't made a final decision on his plans.

[Mr. Morden]

Swalwell:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/02/politics/eric-swalwell-potential-2020-bid/index.html

Rep. Eric Swalwell and political advisers around him have started to tell top Democrats he plans to launch a presidential campaign this month, according to multiple Democrats who have talked to Swalwell and people inside his political operation.

The California Democrat, a 38-year-old four-term congressman from the Bay Area, has made five trips to Iowa and three trips to New Hampshire since the 2018 midterms. He will return to the Granite State Saturday, according to his congressional campaign. He also will headline an event in his district on April 14, "where he will discuss his vision for the East Bay and America."
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No plans are locked in, these Democrats said, but one told CNN that they were told Swalwell hopes to make the announcement on a late-night talk show.

A spokesman for Swalwell would not confirm those comments but hinted that an announcement could be imminent.

"You will know his decision this month," a Swalwell spokesman said. "You can infer what you will from the fact that he is still traveling in terms of what way he is leaning."

[Mr. Morden]

Bennet will be in New Hampshire on Sunday:

https://www.seacoastonline.com/news/20190402/sen-bennet-to-speak-with-rockingham-dems

[PaperKooper]

https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1113257478202871808

Gravel is running

[Mr. Morden]

This news is old now, but I don't see it elsewhere in the thread: Hogan will be in NH for Politics & Eggs on April 23rd:

https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-hogan-new-hampshire-20190312-story.html