The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 4

[Mr. Morden]

The other thread has nearly 2000 replies, so I'm locking it.  Here's the new thread for candidate news.  Mods, please sticky.

I guess I should also offer a link to the old thread, in case you want to revisit it:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.0

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the countdown clock for Gillum's announcement tomorrow:

https://bringithomefl.org

Looks like it'll be at 6pm Eastern Time?

The fact that it mentions Florida, and that AndrewGillum.com currently redirects here:

https://forwardfla.com/stay-tuned/

suggests to me that he's not running for president, but some statewide or local office instead.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-2020-former-vp-inches-closer-to-run-telling-donors-about-his-plans/

Former Vice President Joe Biden is inching closer to a run for the White House. CBS News has learned that he's started to tell potential donors about his plans for the 2020 presidential election. After nearly accidentally announcing his plans in a weekend speech, several people familiar with his plans tell CBS News that Biden has started phoning potential donors this week who can help him raise millions of dollars, fast.
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As Biden starts phoning donors, top aides are starting to interview potential staffers for roles on the campaign. All signs still point to an announcement at some point in mid-April.

[Mr. Morden]

Another news outlet saying that Biden has told people he’s “making plans” to join the race:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-19/biden-said-to-inform-supporters-he-plans-to-run-for-president

Former Vice President Joe Biden has told some supporters that he’s making plans to jump into the race, joining a diverse field of candidates vying to challenge President Donald Trump, a person familiar with the conversations said.
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An announcement of his plans is expected in the coming weeks, according to the person, a Biden ally who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.

Meanwhile, Gillum says no:

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinion/20190320/christie-gillum-solid-no-to-possible-2020-presidential-run-but-says-hes-got-plan

[Mr. Morden]

Team Biden considering whether he should name a running mate early (possibly Abrams, though maybe Harris or O’Rourke “if their campaigns appear to flag in the coming months”) or make a one term pledge, two ideas aimed at easing fears about his age:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/21/us/politics/joe-biden-2020-election.html

Such moves would amount to a big play that would send a signal about the seriousness of the election, and could potentially appeal to both liberal activists and general-election voters who are eager to chart the safest route toward defeating President Trump. But Mr. Biden is not sold on either approach, and both carry significant risks, chiefly that they could call further attention to the age of a candidate who would turn 80 in the White House.

Also, on whether he’s actually decided to run or not:

Mr. Biden’s advisers stress that he is still finalizing his decision whether to run and is nowhere near determining whether to name a running mate early. And some of them grumble that neither Mr. Sanders, who is a year older than Mr. Biden, nor the 72-year-old current occupant of the Oval Office face the same amount of questions about his age.

Meanwhile, a new statement from Abrams:

https://www.axios.com/stacey-abrams-joe-biden-2020-election-candidate-0ccdab98-48fb-4ba2-bb54-769158456e84.html

"Abrams continues to keep all options on the table for 2020 and beyond. She has met with over half a dozen presidential contenders to discuss their commitment to voting rights and to investing in Georgia."

[Mr. Morden]

Swalwell says he sees “all green lights” for a presidential run, and will make his decision by the end of the month:

https://www.politicususa.com/2019/03/21/eric-swalwell-president-2020.html

Jackson said that Swalwell sounds like a candidate already, and he replied, “I’m going to decide by the end of the month, but I see all green lights. I know why I would run and who I could help and I think there’s a candidacy that could win.”

Tim Ryan did an interview on the Hugh Hewitt Show of all places, and talked about his 2020 decision:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/mar/21/tim-ryan-says-democrats-need-to-get-back-on-track-/

[Ryan] added he will make up his mind about joining the 2020 field in the “next couple weeks.”

All of the *current* Democratic presidential candidates are skipping AIPAC this year.  However, prospective candidate Bill de Blasio will be speaking there:

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2019/03/21/de-blasio-to-speak-at-aipac-conference-despite-calls-to-boycott-it-from-the-left-927913

He plans to speak about “the progressive pro-Israel movement” in front of an estimated 18,000 people at the conference Monday, his spokesperson Jaclyn Rothenberg said. On Sunday, he will be interviewed on stage by AIPAC’s national director for progressive engagement, Marilyn Rosenthal.

Earlier this week, the liberal group MoveOn called on Democratic presidential candidates to forgo the conference, citing AIPAC’s links to the right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom de Blasio often criticizes.
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De Blasio is exploring whether to run for president himself in 2020. While in Washington, he will likely take meetings related to his potential bid, Rothenberg said. His political action committee will reimburse the city for any non-government work he does on the trip, which will wrap up Monday, she added.

Michael Bennet is close to making a public decision on entering.

The story says that Bennet "could announce within a month".  The longer he waits, the less his chances of qualifying for the first debate.

[Mr. Morden]

A few days ago, Bennet said he's "inclined to run" and will decide within a matter of weeks:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2019/03/18/daily-202-decrying-court-packing-michael-bennet-pleads-with-democrats-to-care-more-about-electability/5c8e9dfe1b326b0f7f38f1ad

“I guess I'm starting to think strongly that we need a voice in this primary that's willing to make the kind of case that I think that I would make,” he said.

[Mr. Morden]

Swalwell will be on Real Time with Bill Maher tonight:

https://lastnighton.com/2019/03/22/real-time-with-bill-maher-new-march-22/

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton, while in NH, says he will decide “in the next month”:

https://www.wmur.com/article/moulton-says-hell-decide-on-presidential-run-in-next-month/26913103

[Mr. Morden]

Bernie's hand is the highest on the fifth graphic  Coincidence? I think not!

He has to use the bathroom, so he's asking to be excused.

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Ryan will be in Iowa on Saturday, March 30th for the "Heartland Forum", joining already-in-the-race candidates Castro, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Warren for that event:

https://www.evensi.us/heartland-forum-vista-university/298356525

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams has launched a new nonprofit group aimed at ensuring hard-to-count populations are counted in the 2020 census:

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/abrams-starts-nonprofit-seeking-fair-count-2020-census/Fx2hgOatiKBaXC5j1YPVDO/

The organization, Fair Count, will focus on minorities, non-English speakers, renters and others who are more likely to be skipped in the once-a-decade headcount of the U.S. population. In Georgia, the group said, that could include as much as 20 percent of the state’s population spanning parts of 86 counties.
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It’s the latest public policy initiative by Abrams, a potential 2020 candidate who founded the group. Since her narrow defeat in November to Gov. Brian Kemp, she has worked to raise the profile of Fair Fight, a voting rights group she started that has challenged Georgia’s electoral policies in court.

Fair Count will be led by Rebecca DeHart, the former executive director of the Democratic Party of Georgia. Jeanine Abrams McLean, an evolutionary biologist and Abrams’ sister, will be the group’s program director.

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Ryan says he’s “in the middle” on his decision:

http://www.vindy.com/news/2019/mar/25/tim-ryan-decide-shortly-presidential-bid/

“In the next few weeks definitely got to pull the trigger one way or the other, got to make a decision,” Ryan told The Vindicator on Monday before speaking at the Rotary Club of Youngstown luncheon.

Asked if he has leaning either way, Ryan of Howland, D-13th, said with a laugh: “I am passionately in the middle.”

Abrams uses some odd wording to describe her 2020, saying her choice is “not very planned out”:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/435592-stacey-abrams-addresses-biden-rumors-we-had-a-lovely-lunch

On Sunday, she said that her choice whether to run for president is "not very planned out."

"I am thinking about it," she added.

Not sure what that means.  Just that she hasn’t made her decision yet?  Or does she mean something else?

Swalwell’s office says he has someone in the ground in South Carolina assisting Democratic candidate Tina Belge in the state Senate special election there:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/25/2020-democrats-south-carolina-iowa-1235229

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ArletteSaenz/status/1110686432778166273

[Mr. Morden]

More Abrams, on her decision about the Senate and the presidency:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/stacey-abrams-2020-813613/

The senate “was never the place I wanted to be,” Abrams said. “I’ve really had to readjust my thinking in recent months, and I am torn. I’m not being coy when I say I don’t know what I’m going to do. When you’ve spent more than a decade planning for one job, it is a difficult thing to readjust your sights. But more importantly, I think you have to do a job because it’s the job you want,” she added. “Not because it’s a stepping stone to another job. Not because people are asking you to do it. Because, if you’re only doing it to satisfy someone else, you will not do it well. And, it cannot be because it’s open. This work is too hard.”
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I can understand why someone who had just endured what Abrams had wouldn’t want to immediately subject herself to a 2020 campaign. For that matter, why would she want to be president?

“The reason I want to be part of the conversation about running for president is that too many people dismiss the idea,” she said. “This is not to cast aspersions on anyone else, but with an identical set of skills and identical set of experiences, to be discounted because I don’t look the way we think you need to look, or I’m not from a space where we think I should be from, and that is the only determinant that differs between whether I am lifted up as a candidate or not. That’s wrong.

“Now, whether I run this time or run in the future,” Abrams continued, “I believe we need leaders who actually want to lead everyone. I believe we have to have leaders who care about foreign policy and domestic policy, but who care about the least of these, who care about poverty, who understand that climate change is real, that my body is mine, that gun safety does not diminish the Second Amendment, and that has to be someone willing to have that conversation in Montana and in Mississippi and in Michigan as well as on Manhattan Beach. You’ve got to be willing to have that conversation everywhere.

“And so I don’t know whether this is the moment for me, and that’s what I’m going to think about. But I think I am more than capable of leading a country that is contained of so many good people who want what’s right. I’m a good leader, I’m a good executive, I’ve been outside the U.S. a few times, and I’ve done a little bit of foreign policy. But most importantly, I’m smart enough to be in charge of this country.”

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/27/stacey-abrams-2020-candidate-1238628

Stacey Abrams said on Wednesday that she believes a woman or minority candidate will win the Democratic primary in 2020 amid speculation that the former Georgia gubernatorial candidate is being considered as a running mate for former Vice President Joe Biden.
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“I think that the success I had in our election transforming the electorate, the work I've done as a business leader, as a civic leader, as a political leader positions me to be just as capable as becoming president of the United States as anyone running,” she said. “My responsibility, though, is to make sure I'm running for the right reasons and at the right time.”

Kasich:

https://www.theeagleonline.com/article/2019/03/john-kasich-talks-bipartisanship-potential-presidential-run-at-wonk-of-the-year-event

In terms of another presidential run for himself, Kasich said that his “options are on the table,” but he wouldn’t run if he didn’t think he could win.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden to talk about the logistics of an Easter week announcement with his top advisors, but he still hasn't firmly decided that he'll be announcing that he *is* running as opposed to that he *isn't* running:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/joe-biden-discusses-2020-presidential-campaign-kickoff.html

Joe Biden wants to declare whether he will run for president as late as Easter week, according to people familiar with the matter, and he plans to meet with top advisors next week to discuss how he would roll out a 2020 campaign.

Biden and his confidants are slated to hold a series of meetings in Washington, D.C., where they will talk about the themes he would feature in a campaign-announcement video, giving voters a preview of his platform, according to a person with direct knowledge of the plans.

Biden, who ran for president in 1988 and 2008, would also launch a campaign from his home state of Delaware, this person added.
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Still, people close to Biden warn that even as he says he is leaning toward running, he has not made a final decision on jumping into the crowded Democratic field.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/28/bennet-president-2020-elections-1241711

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet said Thursday that he is "very inclined" to run for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020, telling his MSNBC interviewers that his decision would have nothing to do with whether former Vice President Joe Biden enters the race.

“I'm very inclined to do it, and we're looking at it. And I think, look, the American people need somebody who's going to run and tell them the truth in 2020,” he said on “Morning Joe.”

[Mr. Morden]

"Abrams builds massive political network":

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/30/stacey-abrams-2020-1243850

But in recent months, [Abrams] has mounted a nationwide, largely below-the-radar effort to expand her donor and political network that will make her an instant force whatever she decides.

Abrams has traversed the country meeting with top Democrats since her narrow loss in the Georgia governor’s race. She’s met with every leading candidate for president, and become a regular draw on the big-ticket fundraising circuit, donors and fundraisers told POLITICO. Abrams headlined major donor events for the Democratic National Committee, the progressive donor collaborative Way to Win and former Sen. Barbara Boxer in recent months, and has discussed her political future with top Democratic donors.
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In contrast to Beto O’Rourke, who wrote Medium posts and took a road trip after his loss, Abrams has been keenly focused on the nuts and bolts of building her political base. She’s attended dozens of events across the country, according to descriptions of her itinerary from sources close to Abrams and others who’ve spoken with her. She also drew high marks for her performance delivering Democrats’ response to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech in February.

All the while, Abrams, who maintains a spreadsheet of her life ambitions, has stoked the buzz surrounding her next move by taking meetings with national figures from Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to former Vice President Joe Biden.

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton’s in Iowa, where he was asked about 2020:

https://dailyiowan.com/2019/03/29/congressman-and-military-veteran-seth-moulton-speaks-at-ui-while-considering-2020-presidential-bid/

“I haven’t decided yet if I’m running,” Moulton said to the crowd in Iowa City.  “It’s a family decision for me because I have a five and a half month old at home and a wife with her own successful career. So we’ve got a lot of work to do as a family to figure this out.”

Moulton’s also going to be on CNN’s “State of the Union” tomorrow:

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/tv/la-et-st-0330-tvhighlights-20190330-story.html

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams talked 2020 on Wednesday:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-27/stacey-abrams-needs-a-little-time-to-decide-if-she-s-running

Former Georgia state legislator Stacey Abrams said she needs “a little time” to decide if she’ll once again answer the calls of people asking her to run for political office.

“I declare nothing,” Abrams, 45, said Wednesday at Bloomberg’s Equality Summit in New York. “My responsibility is to make a choice that is grounded in my values and the ethic of doing the right thing.”
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“You shouldn’t run for an office just because an office is there," Abrams said. "You shouldn’t run for an office as a stepping stone to another office, and you should run when you are called to be the person to make that change.”

AP story from earlier in the week about Team Biden laying the groundwork in Iowa:

https://apnews.com/79d6ab1d35be459587002babe7ff3e1e

Although Biden hasn’t decided whether to launch a third presidential campaign, one of his top associates, Pete Kavanaugh, was in Des Moines on Wednesday meeting with potential senior staff and longtime supporters. He discussed a senior role on Biden’s team with Jessica Vanden Berg, a former state Democratic Party executive director who has worked on past presidential caucus campaigns.
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Biden associates and others have said no offers have been extended in Iowa or elsewhere, though they are charting out their list of names and where they would likely be slotted. There has been discussion within Biden’s circle and some potential hires of possible salary ranges for some posts, with the important caveat that there is no campaign fundraising organization in place yet to pay staffers.

Biden’s team has also begun focusing on key staffing moves in South Carolina, home to the first Southern primary a few weeks after the caucuses.

Aides to Biden have spoken with Kendall Corley, a veteran Democratic strategist with strong ties to 2018 gubernatorial candidate James Smith and a key adviser on Alabama Sen. Doug Jones’ 2017 campaign. Besides being recommended by Smith, Corley was also backed by Rep. Cedric Richmond, D-La., who is the former chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus and a Biden supporter.

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton says decision in "next few weeks":

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/31/seth-moulton-2020-president-1245495

"Liz and I, my wife, are talking about this. It's a family decision. It's something that we have to commit to together," the Massachusetts Democrat said on CNN's "State of the Union." "Ultimately, Liz and I are going to are going to talk about this. We're going to decide in the next few weeks."
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Moulton, who served several tours in Iraq as a Marine, signaled that national security would be a cornerstone of his candidacy, which would be a long shot in an already crowded primary field.

Similarly, Ryan, while in Iowa, says he'll decide "in a couple of weeks":

https://ktiv.com/2019/03/30/ohio-congressman-tim-ryan-visits-sioux-city/

Ryan says that he plans on making a final decision to run in the 2020 election in a couple of weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

So, McAuliffe said that he'd decide on whether to run this month, but is reportedly announcing said decision in April rather than March.  His first interview of April will actually be tomorrow morning at 8:05am on The John Fredericks Show:

https://bluevirginia.us/2019/03/is-tmac-going-to-announce-for-president-on-april-fools-day-appropriately-on-trumpster-radio

Apparently, the John Fredericks Show is a conservative radio talk show in Virginia?  I would assume that McAuliffe isn't going to actually announce his 2020 decision on said show on April Fool's Day, but maybe he'll give us an update.

Indeed, I wonder if we might get one or more announcements this week.  Candidates like Swalwell, McAuliffe, Ryan, etc. might just be waiting for April to start, because they don't want to file a 1st quarter fundraising report.  But April Fool's Day itself is probably not a great launch day, so maybe one of them will announce on April 2nd?

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo story on Biden’s reaction to the Flores story:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-bidens-affectionate-physical-style-with-women-comes-under-scrutiny/2019/03/31/a41a81d0-5275-11e9-8d28-f5149e5a2fda_story.html

He is still believed to be leaning toward entering the presidential race in late April.

But then there’s this odd phrasing from the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/31/us/politics/joe-biden-flores.html

Mr. Biden’s advisers indicated on Sunday that the accusation would not dissuade him from entering the 2020 campaign, which they suggest he still intends to do at the end of April or just after.

"At the end of April or just after"?  So just after the end of April would be May?  Is Team Biden now suggesting that he might not announce his intentions until May?

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like McAuliffe didn’t use that radio interview to annouce his decision.  Just said that he missed his deadline for a decision, because he’s still thinking about it:

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1112693224215363585

Meanwhile, Abrams says that the new abortion bill in Georgia might prompt her to run for governor again rather than president or Senate:

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2019/mar/31/abrams-calls-georgias-abortibill-evil-says-it/491708/

But for all the attention, Abrams has maintained that her goal since she was a child was to occupy the governor's mansion that Kemp now calls home. She said legislation like the abortion bill could lead her to challenge Kemp in 2022.
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Earlier this year, Abrams said she would decide her next step by late March or early April. That deadline has come, but she is still undecided. During an interview after Sunday's event, she said she is still researching what position fits best for her.

She added that her decision has been delayed by the paperback release of her book, "Lead from the Outside." Abrams said she did not do a good job of touring and promoting the work when it originally came out in April 2018.

Asked whether her delay is keeping other Democrats out of a potential race against Perdue, she said, "Part of my responsibility as a leader is to make certain that I make decisions in a timely fashion that will allow others to make their decisions. But I've said to every single candidate that has expressed interest in running that they should do what they need to do. If they want to run, then they should step up. I appreciate the deference that some have shown, but that is certainly not something I expect, and it's not something I have asked for."