2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Saxwsylvania]

Is there any chance that Corzine will step aside and allow Lautenberg to run instead?

[Keystone Phil]

Is there any chance that Corzine will step aside and allow Lautenberg to run instead?

Yeah, let's see if Corzine is still trailing in late September or early October and they start seriously discussing replacing the guy...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Quinnipiac NJ-Gov

Christie 50%
Corzine 40%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1312

Probably not good enough...

What makes you think that?

Wishful thinking!

[Eraserhead]

Quinnipiac NJ-Gov

Christie 50%
Corzine 40%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1312

Probably not good enough...

What makes you think that?

Wishful thinking!

I don't really care much about this race either way. I just know how The Machine works there.

[YRABNNRM]

New Jersey, as always, is fools gold for Republicans, no matter what polls may say.

[Rowan]

New Jersey, as always, is fools gold for Republicans, no matter what polls may say.

Yeah, disregard the 13 straight polls with Christie up!

[YRABNNRM]

New Jersey, as always, is fools gold for Republicans, no matter what polls may say.

Yeah, disregard the 13 straight polls with Christie up!

Hey, I want Corzine to go down but I'm not getting my hopes up. I've been disappointed in New Jersey too many times in the past to believe polls now. Examples: Kean Jr. in 2006; Forrester 2005.

[Keystone Phil]

New Jersey, as always, is fools gold for Republicans, no matter what polls may say.

Yeah, disregard the 13 straight polls with Christie up!

Yeah, disregard that it's June...

[Rowan]

New Jersey, as always, is fools gold for Republicans, no matter what polls may say.

Yeah, disregard the 13 straight polls with Christie up!

Yeah, disregard that it's June...

Yeah, disregard that Corzine's approval is going down, not up.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We're not talking about a poll that shows a close race here.  We're talking about Christie ahead by ten points and at the magic 50% mark.

Polling numbers that solid just don't happen in New Jersey.  This is something special.

[For those interested, PoliticsNJ points out today that Christie is polling better than any Republican at this point since Whitman. In fact, his current 10 point lead is better than Whitman's in 1997—you'd have to go back to 1985 to find a NJ Republican in better electoral shape in June.]

And thankfully, should something happen to get Corzine out of the race, Christie has actually been building up and usually solid favorability rating (two to one) for a NJ Republican.

[YRABNNRM]

I don't know; I just don't buy it. I think as the summer progresses the polls will get closer and then by election day Corzine will be ahead. Do I hope I'm wrong? Absolutely but I'm not expecting to be.

As Phil has said, a pro-life Bush appointee Republican candidate just doesn't seem to fit New Jersey.

[Keystone Phil]

New Jersey, as always, is fools gold for Republicans, no matter what polls may say.

Yeah, disregard the 13 straight polls with Christie up!

Yeah, disregard that it's June...

Yeah, disregard that Corzine's approval is going down, not up.

Uh huh. Guess what else happens to be going up? His standing in the head to head polls. Remember when he was polling in the 30s?

Keep setting yourself up for a huge disappointment, my friend.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Uh huh. Guess what else happens to be going up? His standing in the head to head polls. Remember when he was polling in the 30s?

Keep setting yourself up for a huge disappointment, my friend.

Actually, his standing in head-to-head polls is getting worse when you consider that Christie's standing in the polls is heading up to and over 50%. (Remember, 51% in Rasmussen.)

Besides, the last Quinnipiac had Christie by 7, this one has Christie by 10. The fact that Corzine has moved from the high-thirties to low-forties is irrelevant when Christie is gaining at a faster pace.

[Rowan]

Phil, look at the margins. It's common sense, you are smarter than that. Christie grew 5 points from the last poll, while Corzine grew 2. Not sure what point you are trying to make, but you failed miserably.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, look at the margins. It's common sense, you are smarter than that. Christie grew 5 points from the last poll, while Corzine grew 2.

Christie got a post primary bump. Big deal.

 

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LOL ok, pal.

The point is that you can no longer use the excuse that the incumbent is polling in the 30s and losing ground. He's at 40% now. He's gaining.

I'm sorry but some of us have given up hope with your state. You'll join us in November.

Actually, his standing in head-to-head polls is getting worse when you consider that Christie's standing in the polls is heading up to and over 50%. (Remember, 51% in Rasmussen.)

Besides, the last Quinnipiac had Christie by 7, this one has Christie by 10. The fact that Corzine has moved from the high-thirties to low-forties is irrelevant when Christie is gaining at a faster pace.

When Christie keeps gaining in the next couple of polls, give me a call. Otherwise, this is a post primary bump that won't last. We're months away from the General. The Corzine campaign has plenty of stuff on Christie just as Christie has plenty of stuff on Corzine. At the end of the day, I think it's all going to cancel each other out and the state will break as it always does.

[pogo stick]

Phil ,we have more hope in NJ then PA. I mean NJ was only a 6 pt Kerry win. Plus both senators could've faced disastrous results had they been in republican years.

PA just keeps killing the republicans. Well, the Conservative ones.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil ,we have more hope in NJ then PA. I mean NJ was only a 6 pt Kerry win. Plus both senators could've faced disastrous results had they been in republican years.

PA just keeps killing the republicans. Well, the Conservative ones.

...

I won't dignify this with a real response.

[Eraserhead]

I applaud Phil's reasonable skepticism.

[Rowan]

So Phil, every undecided should be breaking towards Christie? I really don't understand what you are saying. Of course Corzine's numbers are going to go up from the mid 30's. But based off the last poll they are breaking at a 5-2 margin to Christie. We get it, you're skeptical. But facts work better than conjecture.

[Keystone Phil]

So Phil, every undecided should be breaking towards Christie? I really don't understand what you are saying. Of course Corzine's numbers are going to go up from the mid 30's. But based off the last poll they are breaking at a 5-2 margin to Christie. We get it, you're skeptical. But facts work better than conjecture.

Who the hell is saying voters will continue to break at a 5-2 margin for Christie? It's June, dude.

And where in the hell did I say the undecided vote should be breaking towards Christie? Do you mean Corzine? I'm not saying every undecided voter will break for Corzine. Some of us are just sane enough to realize that 50% of voters aren't locked up for Christie, dude.

[Rowan]

Well, based on simple arithmetic, he actually doesn't need any more undecided voters.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, based on simple arithmetic, he actually doesn't need any more undecided voters.

...

And based on basic...oh...common sense...some of us realize Christie doesn't have 50% of voters definitely supporting him. Why the hell can't you understand this?

[East Coast Republican]

Phil, you're wrong.

Yes, that guy above you was/is dead wrong about Pennsylvania.  People who thought President Bush even had a chance at Jersey in 2004 were smoking a little too much GOP weed.  The numbers just weren't there to result in any plausible victory and Bush only lead in one (I believe) poll and was tied in another in july/august...he never even had a real lead in contrast to Pennsylvania.

Now, your prissy 'Waaa Christie has no chance look at the pollssss the polllssss!'

Ummm, I am looking at the polls and Christie is holding strong and Corzine is staying in the same place IF NOT getting weaker.  So Corzine climbed into the 40s.  NOOOOO REALLY?!  Sound the freaking fire alarm!  If Christie breaking 50% is due to a primary bounce, did it ever occur to you that the same reasoning could be applied to Corzine's impassioned speech to NJ Democrats?  Ya see, your extremely flawed reasoning could go either way but there certainly is one thing that is true: Christie is in a remarkably strong position to kick this tax czar out of office.  

Oh and I expect Corzine to break into the 40s as the election gets closer.  A little information on polls: candidate support increases as elections draw near...duh!  Christie and Corzine's numbers are both going up but guess who's keeping pace with Corzine's gains and increasing on them in other polls?  Yup....Chris Christie.  Jersey is a blue state but those other elections you keep referring to are not the rule for all future elections in Jersey.  We got a governor with support in the 30s, negatives in the 50s.  The only downfall for Christie is that his 'no opinion' stands at 46%.  SO, I do expect this race to get significantly closer but I don't expect it to result in a sudden Democratic swing of 15% between now and election day.  REPEAT: I DO NOT THINK CORZINE WILL WIN BY 10 OR MORE POINTS.  If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong but at least im using educated guesses to predict how the race will turn out.  You speak as if Christie's defeat is bound to happen but as I said, those past situations had completely different poll numbers/negative/approval numbers and you know this.  Your talk of eventual defeat is ridiculous and at the very worst extremely ignorant.

On a final note, I'm not pleased to see some of the so-called analyses from experienced members on this site.  People here the other day were calling Bergen and Passaic for Lonegan...and I think whoever said that actually still lived in Jersey.  Anybody who has lived in Jersey a looong time shouldve known that Bergen and Passaic weren't going for Lonegan-there is a different breed of Republicanism in those counties and known Lonegan didn't cater to those kind even though he's in Bergen.

This concludes my newbie rant.  I just couldn't stand to see Phil continuously tear down great arguments in favor of Christie with his very weak arguments.  Do your worst with my argument Phillip!

[Rowan]

Well, based on simple arithmetic, he actually doesn't need any more undecided voters.

...

And based on basic...oh...common sense...some of us realize Christie doesn't have 50% of voters definitely supporting him. Why the hell can't you understand this?

Okay, then Corzine doesn't have 40% definitely supporting him. Whats your point?

[Keystone Phil]

Well, based on simple arithmetic, he actually doesn't need any more undecided voters.

...

And based on basic...oh...common sense...some of us realize Christie doesn't have 50% of voters definitely supporting him. Why the hell can't you understand this?

Okay, then Corzine doesn't have 40% definitely supporting him. Whats your point?

I never said he did. Then again, I'm not really the one holding up the poll as proof of anything.

Phil, you're wrong.

Yes, that guy above you was/is dead wrong about Pennsylvania.  People who thought President Bush even had a chance at Jersey in 2004 were smoking a little too much GOP weed.  The numbers just weren't there to result in any plausible victory and Bush only lead in one (I believe) poll and was tied in another in july/august...he never even had a real lead in contrast to Pennsylvania.

Now, your prissy 'Waaa Christie has no chance look at the pollssss the polllssss!'

Ummm, I am looking at the polls and Christie is holding strong and Corzine is staying in the same place IF NOT getting weaker.  So Corzine climbed into the 40s.  NOOOOO REALLY?!  Sound the freaking fire alarm!  If Christie breaking 50% is due to a primary bounce, did it ever occur to you that the same reasoning could be applied to Corzine's impassioned speech to NJ Democrats?  Ya see, your extremely flawed reasoning could go either way but there certainly is one thing that is true: Christie is in a remarkably strong position to kick this tax czar out of office.  

Oh and I expect Corzine to break into the 40s as the election gets closer.  A little information on polls: candidate support increases as elections draw near...duh!  Christie and Corzine's numbers are both going up but guess who's keeping pace with Corzine's gains and increasing on them in other polls?  Yup....Chris Christie.  Jersey is a blue state but those other elections you keep referring to are not the rule for all future elections in Jersey.  We got a governor with support in the 30s, negatives in the 50s.  The only downfall for Christie is that his 'no opinion' stands at 46%.  SO, I do expect this race to get significantly closer but I don't expect it to result in a sudden Democratic swing of 15% between now and election day.  REPEAT: I DO NOT THINK CORZINE WILL WIN BY 10 OR MORE POINTS.  If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong but at least im using educated guesses to predict how the race will turn out.  You speak as if Christie's defeat is bound to happen but as I said, those past situations had completely different poll numbers/negative/approval numbers and you know this.  Your talk of eventual defeat is ridiculous and at the very worst extremely ignorant.

On a final note, I'm not pleased to see some of the so-called analyses from experienced members on this site.  People here the other day were calling Bergen and Passaic for Lonegan...and I think whoever said that actually still lived in Jersey.  Anybody who has lived in Jersey a looong time shouldve known that Bergen and Passaic weren't going for Lonegan-there is a different breed of Republicanism in those counties and known Lonegan didn't cater to those kind even though he's in Bergen.

This concludes my newbie rant.  I just couldn't stand to see Phil continuously tear down great arguments in favor of Christie with his very weak arguments.  Do your worst with my argument Phillip!

I'll be sure to bump this rambling nonsense after the election. Thanks.

Oh, and it's "Philip," by the way.