NM: Research & Polling Inc: Gov. Martinez (R) up 9

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: New Mexico Governor by Research & Polling Inc on 2014-08-14

Summary: D: 41%, R: 50%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Yepp.

54-45 is something I could see Martinez winning with.

[Tender Branson]

No senate poll?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

In Austria, pollsters ask people if they are "certain, likely, unlikely or very unlikely to vote" in the next election.

Turnout finally almost always matches the "certain to vote" figure, while the ones who say they are "likely, unlikely or very unlikely" are staying at home.

For example, in the 2013 federal election 70-78% said they are "certain" to vote, final turnout then was 75%.

Don't know if this is the case in the US as well, but pollsters should ask all registered voters if they are "certain" to vote in the mid-terms and only use these people for likely voter samples.