UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Paleobrazilian]

Blyth picked up by Tories.

First Conservative gain of the evening.

[Clyde1998]

10.2% swing in Blyth Valley; Brexit Party vote share greater than the majority.

[jaichind]

Same pattern.  Small gains for CON but LAB losing a lot of LAB leave votes to BXP

[Pericles]

11% swing to the Tories in Houghton and Sunderland South (still a 3,115 majority, but very worrying for other seats).

Brexit Party vote was 2 times the Labour majority there, might even have flipped otherwise. Brexit Party may save Labour a few seats by the looks of things.

[LaserCabbage]

Blyth had been held by Labour since the 1950s according to the BBC. Dang. This might turn out even worse for Labour than even the exit poll suggested. But as we've heard 100x already "it's very early!"

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Labour majority in Blyth Valley in 2017 was 7,915. If the Tories are going to conquer seats with such big red majorities it might be an even bigger bloodbath up north than expected.

[Continential]

11% swing to the Tories in Houghton and Sunderland South (still a 3,115 majority, but very worrying for other seats).

Brexit Party vote was 2 times the Labour majority there, might even have flipped otherwise. Brexit Party may save Labour a few seats by the looks of things.

I doubt that as most Brexit voters in Labour seats were Labour voters.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1205269695483588622

[Paleobrazilian]

Martin Baxter (from Electoral Calculus) says the Conservative may end the evening with a 100+ majority if the swings are anything close to the one at Blyth Valley.

[Intell]

11% swing to the Tories in Houghton and Sunderland South (still a 3,115 majority, but very worrying for other seats).

Brexit Party vote was 2 times the Labour majority there, might even have flipped otherwise. Brexit Party may save Labour a few seats by the looks of things.

I doubt that as most Brexit voters in Labour seats were Labour voters.

They most definitely were.

[jaichind]

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.6b9db4dc-d1df-4c9d-b9ab-c9a136a91f1e/uk-general-election-seats-markets

Sporting Index has now at

CON    369
LAB     192
SNP      52
LDEM    15.5
PC          3.5

CON surging past exit poll levels

[The Free North]

Martin Baxter (from Electoral Calculus) says the Conservative may end the evening with a 100+ majority if the swings are anything close to the one at Blyth Valley.

Labour lost much less in Newcastle so perhaps it balances out?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If the actual counts bear this out, it does indeed look as though British voting patterns are moving closer towards those of the US & Canada - a stronger urban/rural divide, with wealthy urban & suburban areas going left while blue-collar areas go right.

Certainly Sedgefield & Bolsover voting Tory while Kensington & London go Labour more closely resembles American (post-1990s) & Canadian (post-1950s) results than British ones of the last hundred years.

It's still to early to assume it'll be a long term trend. If Boris presses forward DC's plan of cutting down the number of constituencies to 600 the electoral map will change significantly in favor of the Conservative Party.

Maybe or maybe not.
One could reasonably expect 600 constituencies, distributed something like this:
London (incl. everything inside M25): 88
South East: 76
North West: 66
West Midlands: 54
East: 53
South West: 51
Scotland: 50
Yorkshire and the Humber: 49
East Midlands: 43
Wales: 29
North East: 24
Northern Ireland: 17

If Lib+Lab+SNP wins 90% of the London/Scotland seats, then they just need to win about 37% of the seats in the rest of Britain, which is absolutely doable

[jeron]

11% swing to the Tories in Houghton and Sunderland South (still a 3,115 majority, but very worrying for other seats).

Brexit Party vote was 2 times the Labour majority there, might even have flipped otherwise. Brexit Party may save Labour a few seats by the looks of things.

I doubt that as most Brexit voters in Labour seats were Labour voters.

Exactly. It are Labour voters who are not prepared to vote Conservative. Without the Brexit party they probably would not have voted at all

[jaichind]

To me it is clear BXP ate into the LAB vote.  Mission accomplished for Nigal Farage.

[adma]

Though frankly, the fact that the Tories only gained 5.4% from 2017 indicates that people really ought to have prepared for such an actuality.  That is, the Tories went into this election sitting on a *lot* of elevated losing results...

[Intell]

With Blyth Valley gain for tories, this is looking grim outside of urban areas.

[DistingFlyer]

Blyth had been held by Labour since the 1950s according to the BBC. Dang. This might turn out even worse for Labour than even the exit poll suggested. But as we've heard 100x already "it's very early!"

The seat took its present name in 1950, but if you go by its precursor (Morpeth) it's been Labour since 1935.

The Tories took it in 1931 (when they got more than 500 seats); before then, you have to go back to 1796 to see a Conservative winning there.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With Blyth Valley gain for tories, this is looking grim outside of urban areas.

But with the national popular vote exit polling, that could be balanced out with greater than expected Tory losses in urban areas.

[Intell]

Tories+Brexit combined close to labour in Blaenau Gwent!

[Oryxslayer]

if there was a problem with the Labour campaign this time, it was an unavoidable issue. In 2017, Labour was so far back that they could not make a realistic push for government. Sure, they said they were an alternative, but the numbers were not there. So Labour could play for the most powerful message in politics "lets put a check on the government." This force powers the reaction against the government in every federal system's off-year elections, and it allows voters to better ignore the failings of their chosen party. Your casting a negetive vote against the govt, not a positive vote for the opposition. May was just bad enough for a ton of voters to want to  put a check on her govt, so cobryn began to look at that potential govt. This time, Corbyn had too many seats, there was no chance of him making a play for this potential psychological force. the same voters from last time now had to actually think harder about their vote, and Corbyn wasn't potentially that convincing.

[Clyde1998]

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1205270229892374529

[Oryxslayer]

Yep it's going to be a classic #Globaltrend night. London and her enviorns are moving against Boris, the North is in love with him.

[Simfan34]

Looks like the Tories are doing badly in Remainer constituencies in London, projected to lose Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Putney an almost certain Labour gain, Kensington an almost certain Labour hold. Better than expected for those ones, shows this is a huge Brexit realignment.

I'd gladly trade 20 seats to see that woman gone. And one of my fellow Ghanaians is to blame!

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1205269695483588622

You know, Boris wasn't that bad a mayor. Perhaps if he gets such a large majority, and Boris can be Boris, he won't be such a bad PM even if he is devoid of any kind of personal principle. At the very least we are sure of preventing any kind of Labourite disasters ('99 Lords Act, Supreme Court, SDR '98, devolution across the board, etc, etc) and hopefully spared further "modernizing" excesses (FTPA, SDSR '10, Gender Recognition Bill, further Lords "reform", police cuts, women bishops, etc, etc) under this government.

Semper eadem!

[Cassius]

Yep it's going to be a classic #Globaltrend night. London and her enviorns are moving against Boris, the North is in love with him.

Normally I like to poo poo this kind of thing, but the idea that Labour can hold Cardiff North (a historic Welsh marginal won twice by the Tories in recent times) on such a large projected swing is astonishing, and can only be explained by a genuine, partial realignment on Remain v Leave lines.