German Elections & Politics

[Bumaye]

Today a new Emnid poll should come out later so we have a clearer view if Schulz and the SPD are still climbing or not.

 
 
He is. Compared to a week ago: 
 
CDU 33% (nc) 
SPD 32% (+3%) 
AfD 10% (-1%) 
Linke 8% (nc) 
Grüne 7% (-1%) 
FDP 6% (nc) 
 
Ignoring the Schulz train for a moment, if I was a member of the Green party I would get worried right now. On 19th November they were at 12%, ever since they lose bit by bit. Then again they are not the only ones falling, the AfD lost a quarter of their voters since Christmas. 
 

It's been a long time since we have seen a poll from Allensbach. What are they waiting for?.

 
 
Allensbach publishes only one poll per month, normally on a Wednesday or Thursday in the later half of the month.

[Bumaye]

What possible government could there be that is not a grand coalition - no one will work with  Linke

 
 
They form three state governments together, possibly six until the federal election, have talks about a possible coalition for months and have equal goals in inner politics. I believe that if R2G has a 3% lead they will form a coalition. Then they should have ~20 seats in the Bundestag more then the other parties, a big enough buffer if the far-left in Die Linke goes apesh**t.

[Bumaye]

I found the signals by Die Linke surrounding the election quite telling. I saw interviews of Ramelow, Bartsch and Wagenknecht and all three made clear that they think Steinmeier will be a decent president and that they respect him despite their nomination for Butterwegge who received a great result.  
  
Also picture of the day for me was when President of the Bundestag Norbert Lammert talked about unitedly opposing isolation, resentment and fear-mongering and roughly 1200 delegates of all parties were standing and clapping and the AfD looked like ashamed school boys. Beautiful.   
 
Okay then again this picture is not bad either: 
 

[Bumaye]

If Höcke loses and is expelled, he'll probably take his state party with him and form a new political party. I suspect that Poggenburg's Saxon-Anhaltian state party could try to follow him, since he's ideologically very close to Höcke. It then will be the question whether the bleeding stops there.

 
 
With Gauland (Brandenburg), Meuthen (Baden-Würtemberg) and Hampel (Lower Saxony) three other state leaders supported Höcke. While the sh**tstorm inside the AfD would be really fun to watch I hope they stay together. People like Gauland and Höcke are the guys who are to extreme for the average voter, it's much easier to prove how far right the AfD is with people like them.

[Bumaye]

Civey poll for... 
 
Age 18-29: 
 
SPD 38,0% 
CDU: 20,4% 
Grüne: 12,7% 
Linke 10,8% 
FDP: 7,1% 
AfD: 5,9% 
 
Age 40-49: 
CDU: 34,0% 
SPD: 26,0% 
AfD: 15,3% 
Grüne: 9,1% 
Linke: 6,2% 
FDP: 5,3% 
 
Age 65+: 
CDU: 37,7% 
SPD: 28,8% 
AfD: 9,6% 
Linke: 8,1% 
FDP: 7,2% 
Grüne: 3,8% 
 
Several interesting trends overall. Schulz' meme magic carries him to fantastic results among young voters but in the middle of society the AfD has took much workers' votes from them and Die Linke. Meanwhile the younger you are the more likely you are to vote Green. The exact opposite is true for the CDU. The AfD is -strongest among people between 40 and 65.  The FDP has small highs in the opposite categories.

[Bumaye]

Worst AfD result since last August. Seems like Höcke vs. Kepetry does some damage. I'm watching AfD Facebook groups with glee at the moment. They hate Petry more then Merkel right now. It is beautiful. And quite some give in to despair as they say stuff like "You are just like all the other politicians, your position is more important for you then the German people!!!" - I enjoy that so much.

[Bumaye]

And banners like the one from Sankt Pauli aren't helpful at all. Apart from that Borussia Dortmund has to pay a fine of 100.000 Euro for its fans displaying banners with "Slaughter the bulls" and "Burnout Ralle, go hang yourself". I'm actually not 100% sure about whether a fine would be good (in both the Dortmund and the Sankt Pauli case), because I value free speech quite highly, but wishing a violent death to someone else on a banner?! That's probably too much.
_______________

And surprisingly the CDU has had more female than male support in all federal elections except 1980 and 2002. Female Catholic pensioners are the archetypal CDU voters. It's true.

 
  
You aren't a football fan, are you? Banners like that have been absolutely normal as long as I'm visiting games. I'm a Hansa Rostock fan so my antipathy for St.Pauli should come as no surprise but attacking them for a tasteless joke? I remember one time they wrote a banner against us saying "Follow your leader - do it like Rieger!" (Jürgen Rieger was NPD chairman who died shortly before that) which we answered by throwing a sex doll off the stands followed by a "Hals und Beinbruch" banner in remembrance of a St.Pauli fan who almost died after falling of the stands in Aachen. That's football culture. It is dirty and sometimes dark. That never was a problem to anyone. Now the Red Bull snowflakes are here and cry about it and boom the whole media has to report about every damn banner. And hell, it is well documented that Dynamo Dresden has problems with Nazis among their Ultras. That's one of their banners against us: http://blog.zeit.de/stoerungsmelder/files/2011/04/dynamo_dresden.jpg  
  
_______________  
  
I'd say that's simply because ladies live longer. There are more old women then old men.

[Bumaye]

Today the new "Politbarometer" by public broadcaster ZDF was released. I guess I'll translate some of the more important points.  
  
Poll:  
  
  
They also release an unweighted set of data called "political climate" which looks like this:  
SPD: 42%  
CDU: 32%  
Grüne: 9%  
FDP 6%  
AfD 6%  
Linke 5%  
  
The rise of 13% for the SPD in that category since 27th January is the highest that ever happened in the history of the Politbarometer.  
  
Right now 44% (Basically CDU + AfD voters) of the people would oppose a Red-Red-Green coalition though the government favored by most is still the Grand Coalition. 33% say that this would be their favorite option.  
  
In the question which of the two major party candidates the Germans would prefer as chancellor Schulz has surpassed Merkel in a landslide. 49% favor Schulz and only 38% favor Merkel (Last Time: 40% Schulz; 44% Merkel) Which is ironic since a clear majority of Germans say that Merkel does a good job. Even a majority of Die Linke voters approve of her work as chancellor.  
  
  
  
By the way to throw in some US policy: 78% of the Germans say that they are worried about the policies of US president Donald Trump. It is just 58% for Wladimir Putin. Probably because Trump is the unknown factor that could destroy the balance of the world while Putin is a well known problem.  
  
Back to more uplifting news: Only 5% of the people asked said that they are non-voters while 15% say that they are not sure if they gonna vote. Back in the middle of 2008 some 20% were non-voters while 17% were undecided about voting. That resulted in the lowest turnout in the history of modern Germany with only 70,78% in the 2009 election.  
  
Asked about their own personal economical situation 65% of the Germans said it was good, 28% said it was partly good and 7% rated their situation bad.  
  
While a tiny 1 point majority (48%) says that Merkel handled the refugee crisis well and a clearer majority of 60% said that Germany is strong enough to deal with that much refugees the public opinion of the AfD has hit rock-bottom after the Höcke struggles. On a scale form -5 to +5 Germans on average gave the AfD a -3,5 rating, the lowest ever.  
  
The full Politbarometer can be found here: https://www.zdf.de/politik/politbarometer/170217-politbarometer-bilderserie-100.html#gallerySlide=0

[Bumaye]

New Emnid Poll: 
 
SPD: 33% (+1%) 
CDU: 32% (-1%) 
AfD: 9% (-1%) 
Linke: 8% (+0%) 
Grüne: 7% (+0%) 
FDP: 6% (+0%) 
 
Several big things about that: 
- The first theoretical R2G-majority since September 2015 (AfD and FDP both with 4% in that poll) 
- The worst AfD result since January 2016 
- The first time the SPD is the strongest party since November 2006 
- The best SPD result since November 2005 
 
I guess we are really meming this guy to the chancellorship. Huh.

[Bumaye]

To what extent do German voters vote tactically for the "Erststimme" / engage in ticket-splitting? Do voters generally have the information necessary to know how the candidates in their constituency will approximately do and whether the race will be competitive?

 
 
I'd say that's different from area to area. I live in Merkels district, so I can vote whatever I like best knowing that Merkel will get the seat anyway. If I would live 5 kilometers further south I would probably vote CDU to make sure the seat doesn't go towards the AfD. Though I wouldn't say it's to common. In some rather close cases it can happen that the votes are focused onto the two biggest candidates but not to often.

[Bumaye]

Very interesting poll by INSA for the state election in NRW: 
 
SPD: 38% 
CDU: 27% 
AfD: 11% 
FDP 10% 
Grüne: 7% 
Linke: 4% 
 
All of a sudden a Red-Yellow coalition seems possible. Didn't had that in NRW in a long time, since 1980 to be exact. Prime minister was a certain Johannes Rau, later the 8th President of the Federal Republic of Germany. FDP leader in NRW is the party's leader Christian Lindner who is quite popular. Also the Schulz-Train seems to help the NRW-SPD quite a bit. Back in January's YouGov poll the SPD was equal with the CDU at 31%.

[Bumaye]

compared to other NRW polls, INSA as usual thrashes the CDU.....never ever the CDU will be below 30 and the SPD close to 40%.

 
 
The special thing about the poll is the strength of the FDP. SPD and CDU are totally normal compared to other polls. Infratest Dimap had the SPD at 37 and CDU at 30 just two weeks ago.

[Bumaye]

  4% FDP (+3)

 
  
FDP at 1,2% - Never forget. One of the most beautiful election days ever.  
  
By the way since the last INSA poll the SPD gained 9%. Schulz is not only saving the SPD on federal level but also on state level. All of a sudden it seems as they could win all three state elections until the federal election in September.  
  
Here is the full comparison to the last poll shortly before Schulz was nominated:  
  
  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 
  
Pretty sure it means that our pensions should be increased by 800€ so we reach the same standard as Austria has for a while now. It doesn't mean that your pensions were increased by 800€ lately only that yours are 800€ higher right now. It's of course heavy populism since our pension systems work differently but overall it is true that our pensions are pretty low while yours are quite a bit higher.

[Bumaye]

Pretty sure it means that our pensions should be increased by 800€ so we reach the same standard as Austria has for a while now. It doesn't mean that your pensions were increased by 800€ lately only that yours are 800€ higher right now. It's of course heavy populism since our pension systems work differently but overall it is true that our pensions are pretty low while yours are quite a bit higher.

You think your pensions are really that much lower on average as ours ?

I don't really believe that. Maybe in East Germany, but even these pensions are streamlined with the Western ones by the middle of the 2020s ...

 
 
Not everyone gets pension for 14 months per year. If you don't believe Die Linke maybe you prefer more centrist media: 
 
http://www.br.de/nachrichten/rente-europa-vergleich-100.html 
http://www.focus.de/finanzen/altersvorsorge/rente/selbst-wirtschaftsweiser-war-ueberfragt-staunen-bei-illner-warum-gibt-es-in-oesterreich-40-prozent-mehr-rente_id_6255294.html 
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/altersversorgung-warum-oesterreichs-rentner-viel-mehr-geld-bekommen-als-deutsche-1.2818161 

[Bumaye]

Three state polls today:  
  
Saarland (Forsa):  
  
CDU: 34%  
SPD: 33%  
Linke: 13%  
AfD: 6%  
Grüne: 5%  
FDP: 4%  
  
Less than three weeks until the election and the plot thickens. This poll proves that INSA's poll two days ago wasn't just a fluke. While numerically basically nothing has changed (R2G at 51%, Protest Party at 6-7%) It will be interesting to see if AfD, Grüne and FDP can get above the 5% threshold. My guess is that the later two won't. More important though is who will lead the next Grand Coalition. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is widely respected and for a lot of people the crown princess in the CDU as it is known that she is very close to Merkel but if she really blows her 12 point lead from back in January then this could be a debacle for her whole career.  
  
_________________  
  
Baden-Würtemberg (Infratest Dimap - Compared to September):  
  
CDU: 28% (+2)  
Grüne: 27% (-4)  
SPD: 20% (+7)  
AfD: 11% (-6)  
FDP: 7% (+0)  
Linke: 4% (+1)  
  
The SPD is the Conchita Wurst of Baden-Würtemberg as she rises like a phoenix. Of course a year after the last election this doesn't mean much though. Of course I enjoy the crash of the AfD.  
  
_________________  
  
Rheinland-Pfalz (Infratest Dimap - Compared to December):  
  
SPD: 40% (+8)  
CDU: 35% (-1)  
AfD: 7% (-3)  
Grüne: 6% (-3)  
FDP: 6% (+1)  
Linke: 3% (-1)  
  
'Rise like a phoenix! Out of the ashes...' ♪♫ Germany's only so called traffic light coalition has gained 4% since their election a year ago. As everywhere it seems that the SPD is almost consuming Grüne and AfD and regain their old strength thanks to the Schulz Hype Train.

[Bumaye]

New poll for Saarland as well where the election will be held next week. It's compared with the 2012 result. Note: SPD won't form a coalition with Die Linke here, it will be another Grand Coalitions, it's only about who'll lead it. 
 

[Bumaye]

Why no SPD-DieLinke?

 
 
Linke chairman in Saarland is Oskar Lafontaine who was the SPD leader in the late 90s and then left the party. Until today they hate each others guts.

[Bumaye]

My prediction: 
 
CDU: 35.4% 
SPD: 32.8% 
Linke: 13.1% 
AfD: 6.4% 
Grüne: 4.5% 
FDP: 4.3% 
Others: 3,5% 
 
I believe that the FGW polls were just outliers and that SPD and CDU are actually closer while I think that the CDU will be slightly ahead.  it is a rare occasion that both parties of a Grand Coalition benefit from it but here it seems possible. Saarland is a weak state for the Greens anyway and in their current position I don't think they will make it. FDP will bounce back a little from the 1,2% catastrophe last time but fail to reenter the parliament. The AfD should be slightly below the level that the Pirateparty reached last election.

[Bumaye]

New Emnid poll. SPD +1; Others -1. 49% for R2G. 
 

[Bumaye]

Saarland: At 2PM 32,6% of the voters have cast their ballots. That's a little higher then in 2012 (31,1%) but significantly lower then 2009 (36,7%). In 2012 the full turnout was 61,6%, in 2009 67,6% and in 2004 55,5%. So as it stands the turnout will be somewhere between 62% and 64% which is pretty much the norm in the last 20 years.

[Bumaye]

18:00 ARD Exit Poll:

41.0% CDU [+5.8]
29.5% SPD [-1.1]
13.0% Left
  6.0% AfD
  3.0% FDP
  4.5% Greens

Turnout 71% (+10%)

 
  
Crazy. The last time the CDU was above 40% in a poll in Saarland was in September 2008 - that is really unexpected. A possible reason I see is that a number of SPD-voters didn't wanted Red-Red and so moved over to the CDU to keep Black-Red going. The smaller parties are all roughly where they were expected. The turnout is lovely. Highest since 1999.

[Bumaye]

only the CDU can celebrate today.

 
  
I agree with that. The rest of the comment though? In a week nobody will talk about this election anymore. In Germany live more Arabs then Saarländers. In the grand scheme of things that election won't be a big deal. I think I wrote it before: Either the SPD lands an unexpected victory or everything will stay the same.  
  
I mean this result maybe isn't great for the SPD but then again if we compare it with the last couple elections it's absolute norm:  
  
2004: 30.8%
2009: 24.5%
2012: 30.6%
2017: 30.0%
 
So with a relatively even result in 2004 in the Saarland they reached 34,2% in the General Election the next year. If the SPD scores that high this year it would be very likely that we have a Godchancellor afterwards. 

[Bumaye]

How is the real count coming along?  Are the Greens really out?

 
 
Tagesschau currently has them at 4,2%. They are out.

[Bumaye]

Seats according to the latest Infratest Dimap projection:  
  
CDU: 23 seats (+4)  
SPD: 18 seats (+1)  
Linke: 7 seats (-2)  
AfD: 3 seats (+3)  
  
One more and Red-Red would have a theoretical majority. I wouldn't go for it but would be important for the negotiating position of the SPD with the CDU.

[Bumaye]

Wouldn't that be bad for the SDP because of the upcoming General election? I thought I read that Linke is still associated with Communism?

 
  
What? No. I mean of course some people from the right-wing like to point out that they are the successor of the SED but that's about it. On a right-left scale they are very close to the left wing of the SPD. They have some weirdos in their ranks though and are very dogmatic about their pacifism. SPD and Linke are currently in 3 different state governments together though all of them are in East Germany where the party is known to be more pragmatic.