Speaking of unusual elections, what is everybody's take on the 1948 election?
Not only was Truman not particularly popular going into the election, but his base was split not once but twice. First, Henry Wallace, the former Roosevelt VP who would have been president had he not been forced off the 1944 ticket, ran against Truman as a progressive, on a platform urging accomdation with the Soviet Union rather than Truman's containment and cold war policies.
Then, the Dixiecrats broke with Truman over his support for civil rights for blacks. At that time, it was considered impossible for a Democrat to win the presidency without the "solid south," a similar position to what the Republicans are in today.
And yet Truman won anyway. I guess it helped that Wallace won no electoral votes, but he probably cost Truman New York state anyway. And Strom Thurmond won several southern states as the Dixiecrat candidate.
This election did have the effect of actually hastening civil rights reforms, because once the Democrats saw that they could actually win without the whole south, they became more courageous about advocating equal rights for blacks.
I have always been a fan of Truman because he had the 'nads to revolutionize US foreign policy and he set up a national security structure that exists to this day. He showed tremendous courage in urging permanent world involvement to a nation used to minding its own business unless attacked, and took the first step to save the world from Soviet tyranny. I also admired his desire to move the country in the direction of fair treatment of blacks.
Does anybody have any thoughts on how Truman pulled off this victory against such great odds?
It was a combination of many factors. First, Truman ran a great campaign. Clark Clifford planned it out and Truman carried it out brilliantly.
Second, Dewey ran a lousy campaign. He decided he had the election sewed up and played it safe, a terrible mistake.
Third, the Republicans did not even realize what was happening. They were so convinced that they had it won, they stopped polling sometime in September, another incredibly stupid move. Thus they missed the late surge to Truman and did nothing to combat it.
Fourth, the Republican Congress which had been elected in 1946 played into Truman's hands. During his acceptance speech, Truman announced that he was calling them back into a special session so they could enact all the legislation they'd been talking about. They did nothing, and Truman went out on the stump and called them the "Do-Nothing Congress." Another master stroke on Truman's part.
Fifth, Wallace and Thurmond both got far fewer votes than projected, as a lot of voters who originally planned to vote for them came home to Truman.
Sixth, FDR won another one from beyond the grave. Truman campaigned on the pledge to continue New Deal policies, and the loyalty of the old New Deal coalition pulled him through.
