Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

More rapid fire political news: The DCCC is spending $487k (!) to make a 1900 point ad buy (!!) in IN-03 (!!!). http://indiana.typepad.com/fwob/2008/10/breaking-487k-i.html

The Democrat in this race is a young lawyer who has outraised sluggish incumbent Mark Souder. This is JLT's old district, so the DCCC may be counting on her GOTV effort to bolster Democrat Mike Montagano's chances.

Like Jim Esch, Montagano is a young Democrat who could (if he wins) be positioned to hold this seat for a long time.

I thought JLT's district was more or less what IN-2 is now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Senate has been updated with one week out.

In case you don't notice, I did away with the toss-up/lean distinction because I was starting to find it annoying.

I will be keeping it for the House.

Stevens should be dead, but he's in Likely D here because I want at least one legitimate poll (I know I'll have to take Ivan Moore) to tell me this, just in case Alaska doesn't decide to give the F-U to everyone.

Kos already has R2000 doing an Alaska poll, if that's acceptable.