2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Ebsy]

Hysterically high "Not sure" number for YouGOV.

[Ebsy]

[Ebsy]

Dino is in
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-dino-rossi-announces-congressional-bid-to-replace-dave-reichert/

Probably the biggest recruitment success for the GOP of the cycle.

[Ebsy]

I threw together fundraising numbers for all the GOP incumbents rated at less than Safe GOP. Some interesting members in the lowest echelon.

[Ebsy]

McSally is always raking in insane amounts of cash for someone of her seniority. Donors see (saw?) her as a rising star in the GOP conference and there is likely speculation that she will one day be Speaker. Her's is probably the seat that the GOP will spend the most on to hold.

[Ebsy]

Yes, pretty obvious that we should prepare for a deluge of retirements, challengers entering races in all sorts of seats, and resources to flow into these districts at unprecedented rates.

[Ebsy]

LOL Morning Consult poll shows GOP up 1 point.
Massive outlier.

Morning Consult is a very bad pollster, not sure why Atlas loves them.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/930501516376657921

Democrats up 13 points, 51-38, in the congressional ballot in Quinnipiac's latest poll.

[Ebsy]

Democrats up 15 in Marist:

[Ebsy]

The wave is coming.

[Ebsy]

When are we going to get around to banning Reuters-Ipsos? Hard to find a more worthless piece of garbage.

[Ebsy]

Having been born in 1996, I definitely feel like I have a lot more in common with the young Millennial cohort than Gen Z.

[Ebsy]

PPP poll of 25 R-held swing districts for MoveOn, Dec 5-6, 3068 RV

D 50, R 41

Trump approval: 41/56

The 25 districts are AZ-2, CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-6, FL-26, FL-27, IA-1, IL-6, MI-11, NJ-2, NJ-11, NY-19, NY-22, PA-6, PA-7, PA-8, PA-15, TX-7, TX-23, VA-10, WA-8.

RIP.

[Ebsy]

I bet Salas runs.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/971785969950175234



Peek into Democratic spending priorities ahead of the midterms. Definitely looking like they are betting on picking up the House.

[Ebsy]

How good are the democratic candidates in IL-12, IL-13, and IL-14?

IL-12 at least has a killer one imo

Brendan Kelly, State's Attorney for St. Clair County, is about a solid recruit as we could hope for minus Costello coming back for another stint in Congress (ha). He has name recognition and experience running in St. Clair, which takes in a swath of suburbs of St. Louis, centered on the extremely suburban Belleville, and comprises 43%+ of the district (higher when black turnout is up in East St. Louis). The next biggest chunk is Madison County (about 17% of the district) to the North, which takes in more St. Louis suburbs including Granite City, a major steel town, and Alton, another rustbelt industrial center. Running up margins here while keeping things competitive in the rest of the district, especially the extreme southern counties around Cairo is the path to victory for a Democrat in the 12th. Bost is in very serious trouble, though I doubt he realizes it.

[Ebsy]

How good are the democratic candidates in IL-12, IL-13, and IL-14?

IL-12 at least has a killer one imo

Brendan Kelly, State's Attorney for St. Clair County, is about a solid recruit as we could hope for minus Costello coming back for another stint in Congress (ha). He has name recognition and experience running in St. Clair, which takes in a swath of suburbs of St. Louis, centered on the extremely suburban Belleville, and comprises 43%+ of the district (higher when black turnout is up in East St. Louis). The next biggest chunk is Madison County (about 17% of the district) to the North, which takes in more St. Louis suburbs including Granite City, a major steel town, and Alton, another rustbelt industrial center. Running up margins here while keeping things competitive in the rest of the district, especially the extreme southern counties around Cairo is the path to victory for a Democrat in the 12th. Bost is in very serious trouble, though I doubt he realizes it.

From the looks of him being consistently outraised by Kelly, I don't think he realizes it either. He should have realized it the moment someone pointed out that Tammy Duckworth crushed Mark Kirk here.

Looking at the district closely, IL-12 is remarkably similar to parts of the Pittsburgh suburbs, other than having a significant urban black population near the riverfront in St. Clair county (East St. Louis, Centreville, Washington Park, Venice). Edwardsville in Madison County is not in the district, nor is Collinsville. Carbondale and Murphysboro are hardly Republican bastions, and Carbondale has a major public university. The challenge will be stitching together a congressional campaign in the far flung reaches of this district, but the massive mobilization in the governor's race is going to ensure that there is a lot political engagement.

[Ebsy]

DCCC announces record fundraising for February.

What is the RCC fundraising tho

The NRCC has not announced their haul yet.