Strategic Vision Polls from Ohio, Iowa, Penn, "Cheesehead Land", Jersey

[The Vorlon]

Strategic Vision gets the big (R) next to their name, however for most of this year the bulk of their polling has been more or less consistent within MOE of others.

I think PA and Jersey might be a few points too kind to Bush in this bunch - nothing horrible, within MOE

I "think" Ohio is actually about right (IMHO), but I really want to see another poll to confirm or deny till I get a firm opinion on that state.

Iowa ? - not sure actually.

Wisconsisn is consistent with other polls.

Y 'all spin away on these.

OHIO

2 Way Race

Bush 51%
Kerry 45%

3 Way Race

Bush 51
Kerry 43
Nader 1

IOWA

2 way Race

Bush 49%
Kerry 47%

3 Way Race

Bush 49
Kerry 46
Nader 1

PENNSYLVANIA

2 Way Race

Bush 46%
Kerry 46%

3 Way Race

Bush 46
Kerry 45
Nader 1

WISCONSIN

2 Way Race

Bush 49%
Kerry 45%

3 Way Race

Bush 49
Kerry 44
Nader 1

NEW JERSEY

2 Way Race

Kerry 47%
Bush 41%

3 Way Race

Kerry 46
Bush 41
Nader 2

[handler]

Republican hack polling.

Kerry up 1 or 2 in Ohip

Kerry up at least 10 in NJ

Wisconsin tied with Kerry surging

Iowa - Kerry up by 3

Pa - Kerry up at least 3 and probably mor like 4 or 5.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Not republican hack, but centainly too Bush friendly.  Don't try to tell me Kerry has no advantage in PA right now. 

[handler]

Strategic Vision is a Republican polling organization which has no credible track record.  Their last poll had Bush up 5 in Florida in a three way race.  How silly is that?

[Gustaf]

Strategic Vision is a Republican polling organization which has no credible track record.  Their last poll had Bush up 5 in Florida in a three way race.  How silly is that?

Not more than you, judging by that comment.

[kelpie]

Republican hack polling.

Better hope so, but

...for most of this year the bulk of their polling has been more or less consistent within MOE of others.

I imagine Bush is up in OH and WI, but I don't think NJ has ever really been in play.

And

Their last poll had Bush up 5 in Florida in a three way race. How silly is that?

Not particularly silly.  Mason-Dixon says Bush +4...

[jacob_101]

Strategic Vision gets the big (R) next to their name, however for most of this year the bulk of their polling has been more or less consistent within MOE of others.

I think PA and Jersey might be a couple points too kind to Bush in this bunch - nothing horrible, within MOE

I "think" Ohio is actually about right (IMHO), but I really want to see another poll to confirm or deny till I get a firm opinion on that state.

Y 'all spin away on these.

OHIO
Bush 51%
Kerry 45%

IOWA
Bush 49%
Kerry 47%

PENNSYLVANIA
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%

WISCONSIN
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%

NEW JERSEY
Kerry 47%
Bush 41%

I'd say they are all about 2% Republican friendly....nothing too crazy about these polls.

[AuH2O]

handler= primitive troll. Wouldn't make the cut on Ernest does Halloween.

SV's numbers have NOT been Bush-friendly, for the most part, this cycle. Compare their results to "non-partisan" firms, and actually some have been a bit Kerry-friendly.

If the election were today, I think their numbers are entirely credible. PA would be razor tight. NJ has been polling strange ALL CYCLE and not just by SV.

I don't fully understand their methodology, but SV has had very consistent results... when Bush goes up nationally, that is reflected in all their state polls (and vice versa). Internals match the horserace numbers.

In fact, they are the only state numbers I take seriously of the firms that do many states.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I would say right now

Ohio = tied
Penn. = Kerry up 3
Wisc. = Bush up 3
Iowa = Kerry up 1
N.J. = Kerry up 10  STOP POLLING HERE!!!!!!!

[Reds4]

Vorlon, I wish 51-45 in Ohio was right, but I believe my state is closer than that. Democrats in Ohio seem to be the ones that don't pay as much attention to the race until right before election day, and then the Democrat bounces some in Ohio. I'd be surprised if Ohio is more than 3 points in either direction come election day.

[Giant Saguaro]

Kerry's up more than that in NJ and I'd say he's up about 2-3 in PA. Other than those, looks pretty good.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, I wish 51-45 in Ohio was right, but I believe my state is closer than that. Democrats in Ohio seem to be the ones that don't pay as much attention to the race until right before election day, and then the Democrat bounces some in Ohio. I'd be surprised if Ohio is more than 3 points in either direction come election day.

All the stuff I am seeing on Ohio is really mixed.

I just am not sure.  Bush by 4-5 is my "gut" but I am open to being conviced one way or the other.

POS should have a poll out by Thursday or so.

We'll see then.

opps.. another debate...

we will not see then, then...

[handler]

How about we quit posting partisan state polls and stick to legitimate and credible polling organizations.  Partisan polling numbers from firms like Strategic Vision are a waste of space.

[MODU]

How about we quit posting partisan state polls and stick to legitimate and credible polling organizations.  Partisan polling numbers from firms like Strategic Vision are a waste of space.

Like what, Zogby?  *dies laughin*

[millwx]

Strategic Vision gets the big (R) next to their name, however for most of this year the bulk of their polling has been more or less consistent within MOE of others.

I think PA and Jersey might be a couple points too kind to Bush in this bunch - nothing horrible, within MOE

I "think" Ohio is actually about right (IMHO), but I really want to see another poll to confirm or deny till I get a firm opinion on that state.

Y 'all spin away on these.

OHIO
Bush 51%
Kerry 45%

IOWA
Bush 49%
Kerry 47%

PENNSYLVANIA
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%

WISCONSIN
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%

NEW JERSEY
Kerry 47%
Bush 41%

I'd say they are all about 2% Republican friendly....nothing too crazy about these polls.

I agree completely.  These are all sane, but probably all are just a shade Bush-friendly.  I think Iowa is a perfect example... the average of just about all polls post-first-debate has been dead-even (one had Bush +3%, two had Kerry +1%.  And the pre-debate polls were running about Bush +3%.  I think it's pretty clear that Iowa is even.  They have Bush +2%.  Within the MOE?  Yes, so, clearly not bad.  But since they're on the same side, albeit within the MOE, in every state (most likely), there is a hint of a small bias here.  Clearly, we're not taking about LA Times style bias, but just a bit... perhaps in their weighting or something.

[kelpie]

How about we quit posting partisan state polls and stick to legitimate and credible polling organizations.  Partisan polling numbers from firms like Strategic Vision are a waste of space.

Like what, Zogby? *dies laughin*

Beat me to it by one frickin' minute!

[The Vorlon]

Zogby is the most accurate pollster on earth.  It says so right on his website.

[Rococo4]

How about we quit posting partisan state polls and stick to legitimate and credible polling organizations.  Partisan polling numbers from firms like Strategic Vision are a waste of space.

beat it loser.....you probably think Kerry is up in ND, SD, TX, and WY too

[Sam Spade]

The numbers seem a point or two Rep-friendly, but considering that ARG leans about 3 points Dem-friendly, it's not too ridiculous at all.

I tend to agree with Vorlon as to gut impressions on Ohio.  

I also remember how bad the Bush GOTV effort was in Ohio four years ago.  It absolutely collapsed in SE Ohio and made a much tighter race than it should have been there.

Hopefully, we'll see some more polls out of Ohio soon.  A Mason-Dixon would be nice.

[Giant Saguaro]

The thing about Ohio, which I think is fairly blue collar state, is social issues probably hurt Kerry more than anything. To a lot of people, and this remains pretty true throughout history (read an argument in a journal once that for the majority this goes back to our Anglo-Saxon heritage), in rural or semi rural working class areas those social issues represent a way of life. That the uemployment rate goes up a couple percent, it's not a massive state-wide depression, so it's not likely enough to change the perceptions on social issues. I think Kerry has to mount a real offensive here and try to convince these folks that defeat is utterly imminent in Iraq, is happening as we speak, and that things are just going to spin so far out of control they'll spin off the axis if Bush gets back in.

I recently finished a book on the '84 campaign and there was a section in there that talked about a meeting Geraldine Ferraro had in, I think, Ohio with a group of union workers or union representatives and it was an interesting account. Apparently, it was a very edgy "encounter," for lack of a better term, and concluded with Ferraro leaving in a bit of a huff after a man explained to her that he intended to vote for Mondale if he voted, but that Reagan had said the stuff that working people believe. I think Kerry has a similar problem. Has he said what the working people believe? I'm not sure, we'll see.

[handler]

For the record, I have acknowledged that Zogby's internet state polls are baloney.  However, his state telephone tracking polls in 2000 were dead on.  (except California which was waaaay Bush friendly for all of you who have the mistaken view that Zogby is a partisan Dem)

He NAILED Florida  -  more accurate than Mason-Dixon.  I know you all worhip at the alter of Mason-Dixon.

Do you really think a professional pollster like Zogby would risk his credibility making the statements he's made if he wasn't absolutely positive that Bush was finished?

[Sam Spade]

Well, I looked at that article Vorlon posted yesterday about 14,000+ ads being run in Toledo, OH and this morning I went and consulted some books on voting tendencies of Toledo.  

What's left out of the article is that Toledo proper was won by Gore in 2000 by roughly about 10%.  The rural areas around there tend to be heavily Republican, but very small in population.  

I can understand Bush running ads there to strengthen the base in these rural areas (though that much advertising wouldn't make any sense), but it doesn't make much sense for Kerry to run ads there, especially if he senses there is a problem with voters in the area.

The fact that Toledo, as opposed to Columbus, is at the center and heart of Ohio advertising wars gives me further proof that Bush is probably up there by a certain amount, probably around Vorlon's level.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kerry loses a point in each of these polls when Nader is included, putting Bush +1 in PA, +3 in IA, +5 in WI, and -5 in NJ.  Bush is actually +8 in OH with Nader included, but I don't think Nader is on the ballot there.

[AuH2O]

For the record, I have acknowledged that Zogby's internet state polls are baloney.  However, his state telephone tracking polls in 2000 were dead on.  (except California which was waaaay Bush friendly for all of you who have the mistaken view that Zogby is a partisan Dem)

He NAILED Florida  -  more accurate than Mason-Dixon.  I know you all worhip at the alter of Mason-Dixon.

Do you really think a professional pollster like Zogby would risk his credibility making the statements he's made if he wasn't absolutely positive that Bush was finished?

Are you Zogby?

[The Vorlon]

He NAILED Florida  -  more accurate than Mason-Dixon.  I know you all worhip at the alter of Mason-Dixon.

Not correct