Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Zaybay]

Can Stacey Abrams get over 70% of the vote in Athens-Clarke County, GA?

Honestly, she needs to break 70% in Athens-Clarke, DeKalb, and Fulton to avoid a runoff.

This assumes she doesnt break skim some votes from R areas, which is her main strategy.

[Zaybay]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I dunno, it could just be Gillum/DeSantis, and FL does have a better history of voting D in the modern political age.

[Zaybay]

With that kind of Trump approval, I would say Abrams +5

[Zaybay]

[snip]

[snip]

This looks fantastic, thanks Griffin!

[Zaybay]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

A "shy" vote in the sense of respondents lying to pollsters is negligible.  The primary cause of an underestimate of Trump and the GOP in 2016 was the actual electorate not matching the pollsters' models.  Why do you think something similar will happen in 2018?  (Note: "because it happened in 2016" is not by itself a sufficient answer.)

Yeah, there really isnt even a reason to lie to a pollster about who you will support. If anything, this year, we will see a Shy Dem effect, and then everyone will make the same mistake.

[Zaybay]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

So, you're saying Democrats won't be making significant gains this year? Is there always gonna be a "shy GOP vote" now?

Absolutely, at least until Trump leaves office.

May you please present some proof to your theory? For the opposition has a GCB, state legislature victories, VA, PA, AL, among others to counter your point.

[Zaybay]

Looks like Kemp has reason to worry with those turnout numbers!

[Zaybay]

Even if Abrams losing, she improved on Hillary's margin despite only focusing on Democrats. Considering she's only down ~1.5% (from HRC -4), 2020 is definitely in contention.

I will go out on a limb and say that even in relatively inelastic Georgia and state race is becoming increasingly partisan, that there is still a distinction between a state and federal race in terms of how much a blue or red State's voters will give the other party's candidates a shake. In other words, Charlie Baker is Never Ever Getting elected to the US Senate, and Georgia Democrats will have more difficulty electing a senator than they will a governor. Demographics are moving in their direction to be sure, but I suspect the governor's mansion will fall before one of the Senators, boring individual issues such as a mega Gaff or scandal

This is true, also, why go after Georgia senate when there are bluer states up? Seems like Democrats often favor "moral" victories over actual wins.

...because there are only 2 Blue Senate seats up? If the Dems want to take the senate(in this scenario, AZ and FL have flipped) they will need 4 seats. They lose AL, putting them down by 4, and gain, the Blue Senate seats, putting them at -2. From there, they need to win the presidency and two currently Red State senate seats to win the senate. The most likely targets would be AZ, and either NC/GA. This would be the D path to the senate of least resistance.

[Zaybay]

...because there are only 2 Blue Senate seats up? If the Dems want to take the senate(in this scenario, AZ and FL have flipped) they will need 4 seats. They lose AL, putting them down by 4, and gain, the Blue Senate seats, putting them at -2. From there, they need to win the presidency and two currently Red State senate seats to win the senate. The most likely targets would be AZ, and either NC/GA. This would be the D path to the senate of least resistance.

I'm kind of worried that 2020's electorate will be just as polarized and that will limit opportunities. Even under such a situation, I still think Montana, North Carolina and maybe Georgia are doable. Iowa should be too although less so than maybe previously thought. Maine may, depending on what goes on with Collins and whether Democrats can tarnish her image even more over Kavanaugh (they may be able to).

I think the opportunities are there but they seem like harder reaches right now unless Trump goes down fairly comfortably (something I still think is not only possible but maybe even more likely than not as of right now).

If the electorate stays as polarized as it is now, then the D senate becomes easier to obtain. ME and CO would throw out their Rs, no matter how popular/unpopular, and it becomes much easier to take NC, GA, and TX. It should be noted that 2018 was a midterm, and many minorities, such as Hispanics, did not vote. If polarization from 2018 stays, then TX is a complete tossup, AZ is also gone, and GA is gone. NC is the only one that may not be lost if polarization were to stay the same.

[Zaybay]

This might sound surprising to some on Atlas, but no one, especially the voters, cares about "optics". If Abrams were to drag this out to December of 2019, the voters would still forget after a month. It also doesnt help how everyone is complaining for Abrams to concede when a good 20 members of the House of Reps have still not conceded their races and have called the result a fraud.

[Zaybay]

This might sound surprising to some on Atlas, but no one, especially the voters, cares about "optics". If Abrams were to drag this out to December of 2019, the voters would still forget after a month. It also doesnt help how everyone is complaining for Abrams to concede when a good 20 members of the House of Reps have still not conceded their races and have called the result a fraud.

They wouldn't forget by December 4th, when the runoff for other races is.

Ok? Does it even matter? I really doubt Democratic voters are not going to show up for Barrow because Abrams is challenging the results. Even for Republicans, what kind of a motivator is that? Abrams is challenging the results, so go vote for this different candidate?

This doesnt fit at all with a voter rational.

[Zaybay]

Democrats are about to be disappointed again.

We already know, we already know about the drop off in AA voters, because thats what happens every time.

[Zaybay]

Its pretty much over. Barrow is underpreforming all of his benchmarks.

[Zaybay]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

There is a reason you cant prove it, its simply not true

[Zaybay]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

I agree fully. Abrams should have conceded gracefully and pivoted her attention to helping Barrow with the runoff. Instead, her arrogance has helped to cost Democrats this race.

[Zaybay]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

I agree fully. Abrams should have conceded gracefully and pivoted her attention to helping Barrow with the runoff. Instead, her arrogance has helped to cost Democrats this race.

Can you stop being so moderate? It literally hurts.

I would call that hackish.

[Zaybay]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

I agree fully. Abrams should have conceded gracefully and pivoted her attention to helping Barrow with the runoff. Instead, her arrogance has helped to cost Democrats this race.

Can you stop being so moderate? It literally hurts.

I would call that hackish.

Cathrina isn't a hack. Whoever says that is the worst Atlas poster ever and is put on her ignore list.

*his

[Zaybay]

DeKalb is 100% in, Barrow won it 85/15. Better than Abrams, actually.

Nah, just kidding.

[Zaybay]

Im thinking we are looking at a high singles victory for the Rs in both races, based on whats left.

[Zaybay]

Hmm, may be closer than 9 points, it looks like. A lot of Fulton outstanding, and its 54-46(rounding). I think my prediction of 5 points might be on the money.

[Zaybay]

Looks like the runoff dropoff might just be 3-6 points this time, very good going forward.

[Zaybay]

I’m sticking with my 54-46 prediction.

Looking unlikely, since all the vote left is from Atlanta

[Zaybay]

You guys act like:

1. People will care about this in two years(or 4) time

2. That people cared about this to begin with

[Zaybay]

Ossoff is considering a Senate bid.

N O

Why not? Genuinely asking. I probably won’t for him in a primary.

Boring, moderate, uninspiring, uninteresting, lost a special that should have been his with millions backing him while McBath was able to take it in the general, etc.

Just a poor candidate all around.

[Zaybay]

yeah there is no excuse to lose that SE. IT was a trump +2 seat.

If Ossoff had moved into the district 6 months before the election, he'd have won.  The carpetbagging accusations hurt him (even though he lived only a few blocks outside the district boundary). 

In a close election, you can say anything hurt him. You could blame the amount of attention, his residency, his lack of engagement with AA voters, etc. All that matters, really, is that Ossoff wasnt able to win against Handel, while McBath, in the general, was able.