If Texas flips it may set of a beginning of a totally new realignment of the map (user search)
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  If Texas flips it may set of a beginning of a totally new realignment of the map (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Texas flips it may set of a beginning of a totally new realignment of the map  (Read 4894 times)
538Electoral
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« on: August 11, 2019, 06:35:17 AM »

Republicans will have a narrow path to victory if TX goes blue in the future. They could win MN, NH, ME and lose AZ and they'd be fine. Yes, I did current 2024 projections and if Republicans win 2016+MN, NH, ME at large and lose TX and AZ they'd be at 271. Pulling an upset victory in VA or a solidly Democratic state in the Northeast would open up more options too.

I don't even think TX will flip blue for a few more cycles anyway and I think the GOP can still win TX in a best case scenario long after the current era.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2019, 03:47:06 PM »

Republicans will have a narrow path to victory if TX goes blue in the future. They could win MN, NH, ME and lose AZ and they'd be fine. Yes, I did current 2024 projections and if Republicans win 2016+MN, NH, ME at large and lose TX and AZ they'd be at 271. Pulling an upset victory in VA or a solidly Democratic state in the Northeast would open up more options too.

I don't even think TX will flip blue for a few more cycles anyway and I think the GOP can still win TX in a best case scenario long after the current era.


If they lose TX they will lose GA as well

That's not a guarantee.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2019, 03:48:42 PM »

I think it would just force Republicans to go all in on the industrial/post-industrial Midwest and retirees (hold Florida, NC, maybe not get wiped out in AZ), on the assumption that the South is giving out.  There would end up being little or no difference in family income between the party coalitions.  Democrats are gradually able to contest the Plains and Republicans the Northeast (except for MA as Boston seems to be following the Southern/Western metro trajectory).  Small cities become the most important electoral battleground.







Yeah. As I said, An upset for Republicans in a Democratic state in the Northeast will open up more options.
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538Electoral
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Posts: 2,691


« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2019, 12:42:53 AM »

Fyi most the swing from 2012 to 2018 is white suburbans and not minority. In fact minority swing probably hurt.

yep.


TEXAS TRENDED R IN 2012

If a dem in 2020 or beyond does something that pisses off the suburbs, texas will swing back to the GOP.

Yep. Agree.
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