PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Keystone Phil]

We might as well start this thread now. Let's try to keep the conversation here.

So far the candidates are...

Governor Ed Rendell (D)
State Senator Jeff Piccola (R)
Former Lt. Governor Bill Scranton (R)
Mac McCawley (R)

Rumored candidates

Congressman Pat Toomey (R)
Congresswoman Melissa Hart (R)

Let the discussion begin (though it kind of already has...)

[Keystone Phil]

The NEW PA-13 Thread

In ways, yes, it will be like that. However, the PA 13 thread will really start up again around June-July '05 when candidates start hinting at a run. The PA 13 thread will never die...

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

If Piccola or Scranton, I'm not that sure Rendell can win by double digits but I will agree that neither Scranton nor Piccola could defeat Rendell.

And whoever predicted a double digit Rendell win without having a good idea of who the nominee is pretty foolish and probably someone who doesn't know much about Rendell's approval ratings.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

If Piccola or Scranton, I'm not that sure Rendell can win by double digits but I will agree that neither Scranton nor Piccola could defeat Rendell.

And whoever predicted a double digit Rendell win without having a good idea of who the nominee is pretty foolish and probably someone who doesn't know much about Rendell's approval ratings.

You mean the approval ratings that were taken last August in the midst of the Presidential election where his approval was pretty much exactly what percentage of the vote Kerry got? They are irrelevant, a new poll should be taken.

You're right. Let's take a new poll. After the whole absentee ballot controversy, I'm sure his approval ratings will be even worse than they were before.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

If Piccola or Scranton, I'm not that sure Rendell can win by double digits but I will agree that neither Scranton nor Piccola could defeat Rendell.

And whoever predicted a double digit Rendell win without having a good idea of who the nominee is pretty foolish and probably someone who doesn't know much about Rendell's approval ratings.

You mean the approval ratings that were taken last August in the midst of the Presidential election where his approval was pretty much exactly what percentage of the vote Kerry got? They are irrelevant, a new poll should be taken.

You're right. Let's take a new poll. After the whole absentee ballot controversy, I'm sure his approval ratings will be even worse than they were before.

What controversy? That blew over pretty quick.

All I know is I'm glad we have a progressive governor, it's exactly what this state needs. To be honest, both parties in PA are run by old people who don't want to let go of their dynasty. Rendell broke that mold which is why he's made enemies in both parties, but he's also been able to work together and passed more legislation then just about every Governor...legislation that actually means something like economic stimulus, the gaming bill, the Pittsburgh financial fix-up and the clean energy bill. Even you have to admit, he HAS accomplished a helluva lot for a only one-term and with a Republican house and senate.

Sure he's accomplished a lot...especially those tax hikes that he promised he would not propose. That's an accomplishment that I'm sure everyone is happy about. The gambling bill...well we have to wait and see to say whether or not that's an accomplishment. Personally, I'm not a big fan of the slots proposal. Then there's that medical malpractice problem that Rendell hasn't really addressed.

We'll just have to wait until the latest ratings come out to see who wins this argument. I expect his disapproval numbers to jump up maybe 2-4 points and his approval rating will probably drop to 49 or 50%.

[Keystone Phil]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'd like you to go to this website http://www.ontheissues.org/Ed_Rendell.htm and then tell me what it has listed under Rendell's position on the economy and taxes.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sure the fact that the slots money is going towards education and property tax relief is a good thing. However, I'm not sure if it was the best idea. We'll have to wait and see if it works. I have a feeling it won't be the great idea that everyone thought it would be.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Did Rendell push for it? I don't remember him addressing the issue that much and we had a situation last year when doctors were walking out. Some had to take their practice out of state. Now my State Representative, Denny O'Brien (R), is a really good guy. I'm glad he's my State Rep. He's also Judiciary Chair. For whatever reason, O'Brien is against caps. This, of course, hurts those who want med. mal. reform and it's one of the few issues that I am in disagreement with him.

My point: You brought up how this did not have enough support from Dems or Republicans. I brought up O'Brien to show that I am critizing him too and not just throwing the blame on Rendell on these issues. However, if Rendell could have pushed for med. mal. reform just as hard as he pushed for the slots, it would have helped our state and our doctors a great deal. Atleast show an effort to get this discussed. It's one of the major issues in PA.

[Keystone Phil]

The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

[Keystone Phil]

The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

[Keystone Phil]

The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

We don't really know what the approval numbers are -- again I think the ones taken in August are worthless and biased against Rendell.

 But my point is even in an overwhelmingly Republican district, his opponent with name ID was crushed. Even assuming Rendell isn't popular -- running against some dimwit with name ID (in a state that has a half million more Democrats) is going to be a cakewalk.

Oh biased against Rendell....of course...Democrats actually losing something? Impossible...

The fact that Holden was an incumbent was enough and he must be conservative enough if a district that's 65% Republican overwhelmingly supported him.

Now for this comment that Rendell would be running against "some dimwit." You must really think Rendell is unbeatable. That "dimwit" not only has name ID but he'd be able to bring in the cash without a problem. And then you use the argument "Well there's a half million more Dems..." While that would seem like it would help Rendell, you have to accept the fact that even Dems dislike the guy. Sure you'll find the folks like IrishDem in Philly but besides that, this Ed Rendell is not the Rendell he was two years ago. Accept it. If Piccola or Scranton aren't the nominee, Rendell will lose.

[Keystone Phil]

Another Candidate

According to http://www.grassrootspa.com ANOTHER conservative Republican from western PA is likely to jump into the race.

Who could it be? Hart? They're also saying that fundraising would not be a problem for this candidate...

Some bad news on Swann: He donated to Kerry and Specter  

Some good news: He's Pro Life.

[Keystone Phil]

The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

We don't really know what the approval numbers are -- again I think the ones taken in August are worthless and biased against Rendell.

 But my point is even in an overwhelmingly Republican district, his opponent with name ID was crushed. Even assuming Rendell isn't popular -- running against some dimwit with name ID (in a state that has a half million more Democrats) is going to be a cakewalk.

Oh biased against Rendell....of course...Democrats actually losing something? Impossible...

The fact that Holden was an incumbent was enough and he must be conservative enough if a district that's 65% Republican overwhelmingly supported him.

Now for this comment that Rendell would be running against "some dimwit." You must really think Rendell is unbeatable. That "dimwit" not only has name ID but he'd be able to bring in the cash without a problem. And then you use the argument "Well there's a half million more Dems..." While that would seem like it would help Rendell, you have to accept the fact that even Dems dislike the guy. Sure you'll find the folks like IrishDem in Philly but besides that, this Ed Rendell is not the Rendell he was two years ago. Accept it. If Piccola or Scranton aren't the nominee, Rendell will lose.

1. You make the point that whoever the nominee is going to get a ton of money. Incorrect --- the Republicans are going to put up a sacrificial lamb against Rendell because they know the odds are stacked way against him. There will not be much money coming into the Republican campaign against Rendell.

Only confirms your thought that you think Rendell is unbeatable. The odds are NOT stacked against the GOP and the reason I brought up fundraising is because Swann himself can bring in the cash.

[Keystone Phil]

The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

We don't really know what the approval numbers are -- again I think the ones taken in August are worthless and biased against Rendell.

 But my point is even in an overwhelmingly Republican district, his opponent with name ID was crushed. Even assuming Rendell isn't popular -- running against some dimwit with name ID (in a state that has a half million more Democrats) is going to be a cakewalk.

Oh biased against Rendell....of course...Democrats actually losing something? Impossible...

The fact that Holden was an incumbent was enough and he must be conservative enough if a district that's 65% Republican overwhelmingly supported him.

Now for this comment that Rendell would be running against "some dimwit." You must really think Rendell is unbeatable. That "dimwit" not only has name ID but he'd be able to bring in the cash without a problem. And then you use the argument "Well there's a half million more Dems..." While that would seem like it would help Rendell, you have to accept the fact that even Dems dislike the guy. Sure you'll find the folks like IrishDem in Philly but besides that, this Ed Rendell is not the Rendell he was two years ago. Accept it. If Piccola or Scranton aren't the nominee, Rendell will lose.

1. You make the point that whoever the nominee is going to get a ton of money. Incorrect --- the Republicans are going to put up a sacrificial lamb against Rendell because they know the odds are stacked way against him. There will not be much money coming into the Republican campaign against Rendell.

Only confirms your thought that you think Rendell is unbeatable. The odds are NOT stacked against the GOP and the reason I brought up fundraising is because Swann himself can bring in the cash.

Incumbent advantage...every Governor has been re-elected...Rendell is still popular. These are commonly known facts, don't deny it. The Republicans just aren't going to spend a lot to take down Rendell, they are going to put it into saving Santorum.

Every incumbent Governor gets re-elected in PA? Not true. The pattern shows that in recent elections that's true but not "every" incumbent. Also, I don't think incumbents had such low approval ratings. Rendell is no Casey. Rendell is no Ridge.

[Keystone Phil]

Another Candidate


Who could it be? Hart?

Well forget that idea. She's not the latest likely candidate. Here's why:

This individual is both a solid social and fiscal conservative, with one GOP operative comparing his political philosophy to that of Ronald Reagan.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell's approval ratings aren't brilliant, but (last time I checked) they're not actually bad... Ernie Fletcher or Bob Riley would kill for them.

Besides, to beat Rendell the PA GOP needs a moderate (or at the very least someone who is moderate on some things).
Running the most right wing candidate that throws their hat into the ring doesn't strike me as a particulary intelligent idea in a state where the Democrats have a small (but very notable all the same) built-in advantage...

Once again, Democrats might have a small advantage registration wise but many of those Democrats are conservative who aren't pleased with the Governor. Rendell has made some enemies within his party. And the PA GOP can run a conservative to win.

[Keystone Phil]

There's 500,000 more Democrats in PA then Republicans. I would call that more then a "small" registration advantage.

It doesn't matter if it's "big" or "small." It's obviously not enough since the GOP controls the two Senate seats, the State House, the State Senate, the Attorney General post and a majority of seats in the Congressional delegation.

[Keystone Phil]

Hmm. Barring a Schweiker surprise run...

I like the idea of Swann.

The GOP better be very careful...they run a conservative and they will lose the SE (and with it the state) to the Philly Governor. (Who by the way...I like...especially on Eagles Postgame)

We agreed on a lot on this post! Wow.

I doubt Toomey will be running now. I'm hoping for Hart. If neither of those two run, I want Schweiker or Swann.

The part where we disagree - the fact that you like the "Philly" Governor especially on Post Game Live. I'm not fan of that.

[Keystone Phil]

Dent for Governor?

http://rendellblog.blogspot.com/2004/12/charlie-dent-possible-gubernatorial.html

Very interesting. And apparently, Dent has been trying to find out who some of the State Senators support in the GOP primary.

[Keystone Phil]

My Eddie is going NOWHERE!  He will be serving the state of Pennsylvania until 2010 and at that him either Chris Heinz or him will be replacing Sen. Specter.

"My Eddie is going NOWEHERE!" The only thing you guys can say. It's like "No one can beat Ed Rendell because he likes the Eagles...he likes a good cheesesteak...Ed Rendell is AWESOME!" Give me a break. As for Chris Heinz, he's another person going no where. We learned that the while the name helps, it doesn't mean its a win. Example: PA 17.

[Keystone Phil]

We have our first drop out. Mac McCawley has ended his bid for the GOP nomination for Governor.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=650

The latest Quinnipiac numbers are out for Governor Rendell.

Rendell enjoys a 52% approval rating (same as Santorum) but a lower disapproval rating (30%). Rendell looks good in this area (unfortunately) but wait a second. That's what the poll release says at the beginning. As you scroll down, the numbers show somethign different.

Rendell - 51% approve. 33% disapprove. That's a drop of one point in the approval rating area and a three point jump in disapproval.

Rendell vs. Piccola - 52% - Rendell and 28% - Piccola
Rendell vs. Scranton - 50% - Rendell and 35% - Scranton
Rendell vs. Swann - 50% - Rendell and 34% - Swann

Bad news for Rendell.

48% want to see Rendell re-elected while 38% do not want another four years.

So in the end it looks like this:

Rendell - 51% approve/33% disapprove
Specter - 55% approve/34% disapprove
Santorum - 52% approve/31% disapprove

Santorum has the lowest disapproval rating. 

[Keystone Phil]

I was about to post this.  Nice work Phil.

Looks like any GOP candidate looks to have a shot.  Only 50 percent at this stage of the game is bad news.

Rendell would beat Piccola or Scranton. I'm hoping for Swann.

[Keystone Phil]

If Casey runs for senate I think Rendell will win easily.  To much money, time and energy will be focused on keeping Santorums U.S. Senate seat and the GOP gubernatorial candidate will be left out in the cold.

It would probably be the opposite. Most big time Republicans might just give up on Santorum if he has to run against Casey.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.draftswann.com

Check out the second story on the site. Terry Modonna, who is supposed to be the best political analyst in the state, says that Piccola represents the conservative wing of the GOP in the primary. What a joke. I'm beginning to lose respect for Mr. Modonna.

[Keystone Phil]

 The 2006 campaigns and elections up there are gonna' be great.

Agreed 

While I am hoping for an easy Santorum win (meaning Hafer or someone like her as the Dem nominee) it will still be a great race. Also, Swann vs. Rendell will be a good one, too. I love PA politics.

[Keystone Phil]

Interesting article on Swann and the PA Gov. race.

http://www.time.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,1034700,00.html