Early voting in Harris County, TX up nearly 8 times over 2004

[Sam Spade]

Sounds about right.  What was the reason to vote in the 2004 primary again?

[Sam Spade]

Sounds about right.  What was the reason to vote in the 2004 primary again?

To... um... show how committed you were to the Kerry candidacy? um... no... that doesn't sound right...

To vote in downballot races... oh wait, were there any interesting downballot races in Houston in 2004?

Not county-wide.  There was the "redistricting", but this only really affected NE Harris County Republicans (TX-02) and the Southwest Houston CD (TX-09) which eliminated Chris Bell for a black man (Al Green).  But Chris never stood a chance anyway, so I don't know whether anyone cared.  Also, I don't think Poe was seriously challenged in the TX-02 Rep. primary.

As I said on another thread last evening, the GOP Harris County primaries are quite interesting this year, and the TX-22 GOP primary should draw out the voters, so there is a reason to take a Republican primary ballot in Texas this year (not to mention Fort Bend).

[Sam Spade]

How close do people think Obama can come to McCain in Texas? In 2004, Bush won Texas by 23%.

Can Obama keep it within single digits in 2008?

No, not unless he wins by roughly 5% nationally. 

FYI, Texas is another state where I suspect Clinton would perform better than Obama.

[Sam Spade]

roughly 60-40.

Hey, a wonderful thing about living in Texas.  No presidential election ads on tv here.  There hasn't been one since 1996.  Total waste of money and the campaigns know it.

Won't be that much. 

I look at it this way:  Bush ran about 20% above national numbers in Texas in 2000/2004.  Dole ran about 15% above national average in Texas in 1996 against Clinton (Perot excluded). 

I don't see any huge changes in Texas to make the 1996 numbers terribly different than now in terms of Clintons. 

I suspect Obama would perform better in marginal suburbs than Clinton did, and probably better among blacks (along with increased turnout).  To say that he would perform worse with Hispanics and rural whites, especially against McCain, is an understatement, and I suspect that overcomes the other factors, albeit narrowly.

[Sam Spade]

I don't see any huge changes in Texas to make the 1996 numbers terribly different than now in terms of Clintons. 

Greater Hispanic population, plus a Hispanic shift towards the Democratic party since the 2004 election.

I suggest you examine Dole's performance in 1996 in Texas among Hispanics.  Even any Hispanic "shift" in Texas since 2004 (which is overrated) still doesn't get us anywhere close to his performance. 

Nevertheless, McCain will not be your normal post-2004 Republican, under your terms.  Especially against a black man.

[Sam Spade]

54-46 in Texas?  No way. 

If it's Obama 53-46 or maybe 52-47 over McCain, I could see it.