Danish Local Elections November 16th 2021

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I'm sorry, 'Elevator List'?

[Diouf]

I'm sorry, 'Elevator List'?

It is a one-man party by Steinar Sørensen, who some years ago had a short term as a SPP councillor. He is apparently an engineer who, after his wife slipped and fell in 2018, has taken a big interest in the local roads and paths. He is and has been complaining about the local municipality to the relevant authorities a number of times, and seem to have won some of them. It mostly seem to be complaints about the lack of municipal repairs, or cases where the municipality deem certain roads and paths to be private (so houseowners around it have to pay repairs) instead of municipal. Some of which bizarrely seems to be due to one of the smaller municipalities, who was merged into Hedested, knowingly adminstrered illegally by registrering certain roads as simultaneously private (so houseowners had to pay repairs) and municipal (so they could enforce municipal rules regarding the looks and use).

Regarding the name:

"My first thought was the the party should be called Tillidslisten (Trust List). Then I noticed the party letter E was available, so I decided to start by picking that. It was the highest up the list available" He then thought it made most sense to have his party starting with that letter. "So I chose the name Elevatorlisten. The name has an aha-effect; it makes people wonder. To me it's a metaphor. An elevator raises people up. I want to raise the quality of the casework. I want to raise the trust in the local municipality".

https://hsfo.dk/artikel/steinars-kone-faldt-p%C3%A5-fortov-og-en-terrier-blev-f%C3%B8dt-derfor-vil-han-s%C3%B8rge-for-bid-i-byr%C3%A5det

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I'm sorry, 'Elevator List'?

It is a one-man party by Steinar Sørensen, who some years ago had a short term as a SPP councillor. He is apparently an engineer who, after his wife slipped and fell in 2018, has taken a big interest in the local roads and paths. He is and has been complaining about the local municipality to the relevant authorities a number of times, and seem to have won some of them. It mostly seem to be complaints about the lack of municipal repairs, or cases where the municipality deem certain roads and paths to be private (so houseowners around it have to pay repairs) instead of municipal. Some of which bizarrely seems to be due to one of the smaller municipalities, who was merged into Hedested, knowingly adminstrered illegally by registrering certain roads as simultaneously private (so houseowners had to pay repairs) and municipal (so they could enforce municipal rules regarding the looks and use).

Regarding the name:

"My first thought was the the party should be called Tillidslisten (Trust List). Then I noticed the party letter E was available, so I decided to start by picking that. It was the highest up the list available" He then thought it made most sense to have his party starting with that letter. "So I chose the name Elevatorlisten. The name has an aha-effect; it makes people wonder. To me it's a metaphor. An elevator raises people up. I want to raise the quality of the casework. I want to raise the trust in the local municipality".

https://hsfo.dk/artikel/steinars-kone-faldt-p%C3%A5-fortov-og-en-terrier-blev-f%C3%B8dt-derfor-vil-han-s%C3%B8rge-for-bid-i-byr%C3%A5det

Thank you for this content, I'm kissing my fingers

[Diouf]

There isn't a lot of polling in these elections, but yesterday the state-owned bookie Danske Spil published its betting lines for several races. While the liquidity in most of these bets is very limited, it gives perhaps some idea of how the election is expected to end up.
Some of the most notable municipalities below plus three around my area in mid/western Jutland.
They still have the Conservatives as arond 60% favourites to keep Frederiksberg. For some time, I would have considered him the underdog with the very narrow win in 2017, his personal scandal + the way Frederiksberg is trending. But perhaps the popularity of their governance is still so high, they can withstand it. And with the investigation of the Mink scandal damaging the Social Democrats in the polls, it could very well end up with a bluer national environment than in 2017. Eva Kjer Hansen is around 63% likely to win in Kolding, where another former Minister Villy Søvndal from SPP is also running for mayor. Considering the abysmal polling for the Social Democrats on Bornholm, I'm surprised they still have Thors a narrow favourite (52-53%) to stay on. In Viborg, they believe hard in Wilbek getting an incumbency boost + still having better relations than the Conservatives with the decisive Social Democrat seats. In Skive, Kirkegaard is a narrow underdog (44%); they must think a fairly likelyhood that the probably decisive local list will turn left or that the left wing will even win outright. Steen Vindum in Silkeborg given even less chances (34%) in an election, where he would likely have to convince at least the Social Liberals to support him again if he is to keep his post.

Copenhagen: Sophie Hæstorp (Social Democrat) to become Lord Mayor 1.08
Frederiksberg: Simon Aggesen (Conservative) to remain mayor 1.55
Vejle: Jens Peter Christensen (Liberal) to remain mayor 1.50
Kolding: Eva Kjer Hansen (Liberal) to become mayor 1.45
Bornholm: Thomas Thors (Social Democrat) to remain mayor 1.75
Esbjerg: Jesper Frost Rasmussen (Liberal) to remain mayor 1.40
Odense: Peter Rahbæk Juel (Social Democrat) to remain mayor 1.08
Skive: Peder Christian Kirkegaard (Liberal) to remain mayor 2.10
Silkeborg: Steen Vindum (Liberal) to remain mayor 2.70
Viborg: Ulrik Wilbek (Liberal) to remain mayor 1.13

[Diouf]

TV2 in their daily local elections programme, revealed the results of a national poll for the local elections.
The poll carried out by Electica.
They only revealed the results for four parties. Hopefully, we will get the numbers for the other parties in the next shows.

Social Democrats 29.8% (-2.6%)
Liberals 19.1% (-4.0%)
Conservatives 12.9% (+4.1%)
DPP 5.9% (-2.8%)

[Diouf]

Viborg – Lead V
This is one, Konservative really wants. Søren Pape Poulsen, the current national leader of Konservative, was Mayor of Viborg before he went to the national stage and his successor, Torsten Nielsen got and very impressive election in 2017 with more that 7.000 personal votes and a gain of one mandate. But it wasn’t enough, because Socialdemokratiet decided to support Ulrik Wilbæk from Venstre.
Wilbæk is probably the most well-known mayor in Denmark, not because of his current occupation, but because he has coached both the female and male national handball teams, winning 1 Olympic gold, 1 World Cup gold and 4 European gold medals.
Socialdemokratiet would also like to retake the Mayoralty, but has the weakest of the candidates in Niels Dueholm, who only got one tenth of the personal votes of Wilbæk and Nielsen. But in the end, Socialdemokratiet probably will hold the decisive mandates.

Of the three big parties in Viborg, only the Liberals has formed an electoral alliance. They have joined the DPP in an alliance, while both the Conservatives and Social Democrats are running alone. So this could perhaps move a seat to the Liberals once everything is counted. Two of the other alliances are likely to mean a big chance of more smaller parties in the City Council this time. Social Liberals, Christian Democrats and Alternative have formed an electoral alliance, which means the one of them with the highest votes is very likely to get a seat. Something neither of them had probably secured on their own. Liberal Alliance and New Right are also allies, which should give a seat for one of them, most likely the latter. Finally, SPP and Red-Green Alliance have also formed an electoral alliance; both of them are already represented in the council.

So as expected, it seems like Viborg will still be a city council with three big parties. Liberal gain one seat, Social Democrats lose one and it's status quo for the Conservatives. So again, it will probably come down to whether the Social Democrat favour the current Liberal mayor Ulrik Wilbek or his predecessor, the Conservative Torsten Nielsen. If it's the latter, they need another party in the mix. Among the small parties, tiny changes can move seats back and forward. The Christian+Socialliberal+Alternative alliance, as expected, looks like getting a seat. Here the Social Liberals gain it, but I still wonder if there could be a surprise gain for the Alternative here amid the national meltdown as their candidate seems better and more well-known than any of the Social Liberals. Liberal Alliance + New Right also gets enough for a seat, and it's very close but the Liberal Alliance edges it out here. Finally, the Red-Green Alliance is just a bit below half of SPP, which means that the SPP gets both seats in their electoral alliance in this poll.

Poll of Viborg by Jysk Analyse for TV Midt/Vest & Viborg Stift Folkeblad

Liberals 32.3% (=) 11 seats (+1)
Social Democrats 25.5% (-3.5%) 8 (-1)
Conservatives 21.0% (+2.4%) 7 (=)
SPP 6.0% (+0.8%) 2 (=)
DPP 3.5% (-2.7%) 1 (-1)
Social Liberals 2.7% (+0.2%) 1 (+1)
Red-Green Alliance 2.5% (+0.2%) 0 (-1)
Liberal Alliance 2.3% (+1.2%) 1 (+1)
New Right 2.0% (new) 0 (new)
Alternative 1.2% (-0.7%) 0 (=)
Christian Democrats 0.5% (-0.1%) 0 (=)
Freedom List 0.4% (new) 0 (new)
What could go wrong? 0.2% (new) 0 (new)
The Local list 0.0% (new) 0 (new)

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

So, who's gonna be new Copenhagen mayor?

[Diouf]

So, who's gonna be new Copenhagen mayor?

Sophie Hæstorp Andersen, the lead candidate of the Social Democrats is the major favourite. It would be one of the biggest shocks in Danish political history if she does not end up as Lord Mayor in Copenhagen. It could be close regarding who's the biggest party, but even if the Red-Green Alliance tops the poll, it's hard to see which parties should provide a majority for a Red-Green lord mayor. Maybe if Alternative or any of the other tiny climate parties get a councillor or two elected, they could support them. But they would be far from a majority as all the other parties would rather have a Social Democrat lord mayor. Both the Liberals and Liberal Alliance candidates have already said publicly that they would support the Social Democrats, and then except a centre-right figure on the second-most important post, the Mayor of Technics and the Environment with responsbilities for road, parks, city planning, energy, environment etc.. A post which the Red-Green Alliance has held for the past 8 years.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Buh, why should I think this is already finished? So, it's not done yet. Thanks.

[Diouf]

Vejle - Tossup
Current mayor Jens Ejner Kristensen has a slim majority of one, who even is a conservative gone independent and this is also one that Socialdemokratiet really wants to retake, having lost it back in 2009. Martin Sikær is the new lead candidate for Socialdemokratiet, not the biggest vote getter, but he has a decent chance. I don’t think that Konservative will steal this, nor that SF will return to former glory and retake the mayoralty they held from 1994 to 2007 (in the smaller previous municipality).

A good poll for current Liberal mayor Jens Ejner Christensen. He only needs to add 4 seats to his party's tally to build a majority. And according to this poll, he could even just do it with just New Right, DPP and Liberal Alliance, so without adding the seats of the Conservatives, who has been non-committal and whose lead candidate also wants to be mayor. And with such a result, it seems likely that the Conservatives would end up supporting the Liberals here. A very big DPP -> New Right shift here with the latter getting an impressive poll result here which would get two of their just three candidates elected.

Poll by Jysk Analyse for Vejle Amts Folkeblad

Liberals 34.6% (+4.6%) 12 seats (+2)
Social Democrats 28.2% (-2.1%) 9 (-2)
Conservatives 8.2% (+1.0%) 2 (=)
SPP 6.6% (-0.5%) 2 (-1)
New Right 6.4% (+4.8%) 2 (+2)
Social Liberals 4.8% (+0.7%) 2 (+1)
DPP 4.2% (-6.9%) 1 (-2)
Liberal Alliance 3.5% (+0.6%) 1 (=)
Red-Green Alliance 1.9% (-0.7%) 0 (=)
Alternative 1.3% (-0.6%) 0 (=)
Christian Democrats 0.2% (-0.4%) 0 (=)
Liberal Citizenlist Vejle 0.2% (new) 0 (new)
Denmark First 0.0% (-0.1%) 0 (=)

[Diouf]

A new poll of Copenhagen by Gallup for Berlingske, and the Social Democrats is not closing the gap on the the Red-Green Alliance, they are now clearly behind them. Would be quite a shellacking for the governing party. It would still very likely be Social Democrat Hæstorp as Lord Mayor, but the negotiations will be quite interesting. Will there be a broad coalition without the Red-Green Alliance, so the party could even get shut out from the second choice mayor post? Could the Red-Green Alliance try to convince other parties to support a non-Social Democrat mayor? I doubt they would succeed, but in this poll, there is a majority with the Alternative, SPP and Social Liberals. Particularly SPP will probably be hard to lure away from the Social Democrats, and if the Social Liberals are to be in such a majority, they would probably have to get the Lord Mayor post.

Red-Green Alliance 22.7% (+4.3%) 13 seats (+2)
Social Democrats 16.9% (-10.7%) 10 (-5)
Conservatives 13.4% (+7.8%) 8 (+5)
SPP 13.3% (+5.0%) 8 (+3)
Social Liberals 10.9% (+2.0%) 6 (+1)
Liberals 7.6% (-0.3%) 5 (=)
Liberal Alliance 3.0% (-0.9%) 1 (-1)
New Right 2.6% (+1.6%) 1 (+1)
DPP 2.5% (-2.5%) 1 (-2)
Alternative 2.4% (-8.1%) 2 (-4)
Other parties 4.8% (+1.9%) 0 (=)

[Diouf]

Another poll, another underwhelming result for the Social Democrats.This time for Odense. It's really starting to look like the cooling off of the Covid-effect + the ghosts of minks past are combining to create a fairly difficult electoral situation for the party. Also another brilliant result for the Conservatives, who more than double their vote share to regain the position as the biggest centre-right party in Odense City Council. Still an unchanged, clear Red Bloc majoriy in the country's 4th largest municipality according to population.

Poll by Jysk Analyse for Fyns Amts Avis

Social Democrats 35.1% (-6.7%) 11 seats (-2)
Conservatives 18.7% (+10.1%) 6 (+3)
Liberals 12.5% (-6.7%) 4 (-2)
SPP 7.8% (+2.8%) 2 (+1)
Red-Green Alliance 6.6% (=) 2 (=)
Social Liberals 6.4% (+1.7%) 2 (+1)
Liberal Alliance 3.0% (+1.0%) 1 (+1)
Alternative 2.8% (-0.3%) 1 (=)
DPP 2.9% (-3.5%) 0 (-2)
New Right 2.8% (+2.0%) 0 (=)
Vegan Party 0.5% (new) 0 (new)
Christian Democrats 0.5% (+0.3%) 0 (=)
Other parties 0.3% (-1.2%) 0 (=)

[Diouf]

Berlingske has a poll by Kantar Gallup for Frederiksberg. They don't show all the numbers, but the results suggest the Conservatives holding on. They increase their share from 37.1% to 42.1%. Along with the Liberals, it's enough to hold onto power in the Conservative heartland. On the left-wing side, it's another decline for the Social Democrats. Back from 16.0% to 14.4%, and might not even be the biggest red party. Red-Green Alliance increase from 12.1% to 14.3% with the very prominent ex-MP Pelle Dragsted.

[Diouf]

On here, you can see overview of each party with their results in each of the local polls. Conservative with progress everywhere, Social Democrats and DPP almost declining everywhere. As is noted in the tweets, these are of course biased towards the exciting places. So not really any polling of the safe Liberal and Social Democrat municipalities, where a popular incumbent mayor helps run up the score. Which will make the national decline smaller for the two big mayor parties.

https://twitter.com/politologidk/status/1459458339885273090

[Diouf]

The national general election polling average on the eve of the election compared to 2017.
The campaign started with a completely similar Blue/Red environment compared to four years ago, but in the past weeks the Red Bloc parties have declined a bit, so they are now 1.3% behind their combined 2017 result, mostly due to Social Democrats declining amid the mink scandal. One should not expect the national environment to be fully reflected in the local and regional elections, but it often indicates the direction of travel. So my guess would be a minor swing towards the right, and perhaps ca. 5 mayor posts net shifting in that direction.
After 2017, the Social Democrats had 47 mayors, Liberals had 37 and Conservatives 8. 1 each for Social Liberals, DPP, SPP, Alternative and two different local lists. Social Democrats have 4 of the 5 regional chairmen and the Liberals one.

Social Democrats 26.5 (-1.8%)
Social Liberals 5.6 (+0.3%)
Conservatives 15.3% (+10.6%)
New Right 6.4% (+4.6%)
SPP 8.2% (+3.2%)
Vegan Party 0.3% (new)
Liberal Alliance 2.9% (-2.5%)
Christian Democrats 1.6% (+0.7%)
DPP 5.9% (-10.2%)
Liberals 15.6% (-4.0%)
Red-Green Alliance 8.5% (+0.4%)
Alternative 1.1% (-3.6%)
Others 2.4% (+2.2%)

[Diouf]

Polling day has arrived. Polls close at 20.00, and normally the first results quickly start to come in. For the large cities, we might have to wait until around midnight for a clear result.

To follow the election, the obvious two places are the two main TV channels

https://www.dr.dk
https://tv2.dk/

Since this is the local and regional elections, it can also make sense to follow the regional channels if one is particularly interested in some parts of the country.

Northern Jutland: https://www.tv2nord.dk/   
Mid-Western Jutland: https://www.tvmidtvest.dk/
Eastern Jutland: https://www.tv2ostjylland.dk/
Southern Jutland: https://www.tvsyd.dk/
Funen: https://www.tv2fyn.dk/
Zealand + islands: https://www.tv2east.dk/
Copenhagen metro area: https://www.tv2lorry.dk/
Bornholm: https://tv2bornholm.dk/

The official result page is https://kmdvalg.dk

In theory, I might have to go to sleep at a reasonable time as I have to get up early and be a part of the recount tomorrow, but let's see how it goes

Voting Christian Democrat in the region (anti-Aarhus, pro-decentralization vote), and DPP locally (I want to support the good Liberal mayor, but don't want to condone Liberals for their behaviour nationally. DPP is in electoral alliance with the Liberal locally, and, although you never know 100%, seems very likely to support the Liberal mayor for another term)

[Diouf]

It sounds like turnout will be around 2-3% lower than the 70.8% four years ago.

The national results of the local elections in 2017

Social Democrats 32.42%
Liberals 23.10%
Conservatives 8.79%
DPP 8.74%
Red-Green Alliance 5.95%
SPP 5.72%
Social Liberals 4.62%
Alternative 2.94%
Liberal Alliance 2.59%
New Right 0.92%
Christian Democrats 0.55%
Others 3.67%

[Jens]

Polling day has arrived. Polls close at 20.00, and normally the first results quickly start to come in. For the large cities, we might have to wait until around midnight for a clear result.

To follow the election, the obvious two places are the two main TV channels

https://www.dr.dk
https://tv2.dk/

Since this is the local and regional elections, it can also make sense to follow the regional channels if one is particularly interested in some parts of the country.

Northern Jutland: https://www.tv2nord.dk/   
Mid-Western Jutland: https://www.tvmidtvest.dk/
Eastern Jutland: https://www.tv2ostjylland.dk/
Southern Jutland: https://www.tvsyd.dk/
Funen: https://www.tv2fyn.dk/
Zealand + islands: https://www.tv2east.dk/
Copenhagen metro area: https://www.tv2lorry.dk/
Bornholm: https://tv2bornholm.dk/

The official result page is https://kmdvalg.dk

In theory, I might have to go to sleep at a reasonable time as I have to get up early and be a part of the recount tomorrow, but let's see how it goes

Voting Christian Democrat in the region (anti-Aarhus, pro-decentralization vote), and DPP locally (I want to support the good Liberal mayor, but don't want to condone Liberals for their behaviour nationally. DPP is in electoral alliance with the Liberal locally, and, although you never know 100%, seems very likely to support the Liberal mayor for another term)

Which municipality do you live in? I voted SF to nobodys surprice ;-) - but actually had to think about it since I couldn’t vote for myself

[Diouf]

Voting Christian Democrat in the region (anti-Aarhus, pro-decentralization vote), and DPP locally (I want to support the good Liberal mayor, but don't want to condone Liberals for their behaviour nationally. DPP is in electoral alliance with the Liberal locally, and, although you never know 100%, seems very likely to support the Liberal mayor for another term)

Which municipality do you live in? I voted SF to nobodys surprice ;-) - but actually had to think about it since I couldn’t vote for myself

Viborg. I think both of my votes will be for parties just on the edge of getting in.

[Diouf]

Exit poll for Aarhus, conducted by the department of political science at Aarhus University. Social Democrats more than 6% down, SPP double, Conservatives more than treble. Complete DPP collapse.

[Diouf]

The first tiny results have already start coming in at www.kmdvalg.dk
The first one from the tiny island of Abernakø in Faaborg-Midtfyn came in at 20.12
There the Red-Green Alliance went from 8 to 18 votes, while the Social Democrats went from 27 to 19 votes.

[Diouf]

It could look like a traditional swing municipality like Struer is swinging back towards the Liberals this time. The first major polling place is in, and the Liberals are up 3.4% to 44.0%, while the Social Democrats has lost 0.9% to 31.9%. Both Conservatives and New Right are around 2.5% up

[Diouf]

New Right seems to be doing well so far. Many of the polling places in Jutland where they poll around 4-5%. We will have to see whether they can reach as big a % in the bigger polling places in city areas. But so far it suggests they could get a councillor elected many places.

[Diouf]

In Tønder, 23% has been counted. The incumbent mayor was not re-elected as Liberal lead candidate, so along with a handful of councillors broke out and created the local list Tønder-listen. Right now both Tønder-Listen and Liberals are on 22.9%.

[Diouf]

The first municipality is fully counted. The island Ærø with 5.187 voters.
The big story is the local list ÆrøPlus which has gained 10.6% to 21.0%. That means they are only 0.4% behind the island's biggest party, the Social Democrats. The Liberals are almost halved down to 9.5%.
In the 15 seat council, Social Democrats get 4 seats, ÆrøPlus and Conservatives each 3 seats, and 1 seat for Liberals, DPP, SPP and two other local lists, Ærøs Fremtid and Ærø i Centrum. Sounds like an interesting negotiations for mayor there.