CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Politician]

Can't wait for this forum's #analysis of the Montana results.

"More Republicans than Democrats voted in Montana, an elastic swing state. Blue wave DEAD!"

[Politician]

I don't think we'll see any R-R or D-D races outside of the PVI+20 districts. Voters are at least somewhat strategic.

Maybe CA-48, but the other two should be fine.

[Politician]

California's elections are bullsh!t. That is what happens when you have supermajorities all across the board, and really no one to keep you accountable.

Accountable for what? Trying to make sure everyone votes?

Their terrible primary system that no one has seriously attempted to get rid of, it cheats voters out of representatives that fit their districts.

The people of WA-04 say hi!

[Politician]

AL, MS, NJ and SD just closed their polls.

[Politician]

Van Drew leading 64-17 in Gloucester county for the NJ-02 D primary. Welp, I was wrong.

As you usually are.

[Politician]

Wow, Menendez only leading by 15 points in the Gloucester county early vote!!

Yep, this race is a tossup now. Republican supermajority.

[Politician]

Alabama is tricking in now.

[Politician]

Limo can relax. Van Drew is winning big in NJ-02.

[Politician]

Kay Ivey takes ahead in AL-GOV.

[Politician]

Oh, and Roby might get Pittingered.

[Politician]

Maddox doing poorly so far.

[Politician]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - NJ:

U.S. House District 1
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Donald Norcross*
2,189   81.4%   
Robert Carlson
362   13.5   
Scot Tomaszewski
138   5.1   
2,689 votes, <1% reporting (0 of 530 precincts)

District 7
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Leonard Lance*
479   76.3%   
Lindsay Brown
85   13.5   
Raafat Barsoom
64   10.2   
628 votes, <1% reporting (0 of 639 precincts)

Please don't jump the gun again.

[Politician]

Wow, Lisa McCormick seems great. I hope she somehow beats Menendez.

[Politician]

This primary is showing Menendez is very vulnerable.

Welp he blew Van Drew losing so he’s got to find some trolling material

[Politician]

Martha Roby trailing State Representative Barry Moore with a whopping 288 votes in.  Dwarfen Dragon: "she's done!" 

[Politician]

McCormick on the map with 2 votes!

In other news, it looks like Maddox was overhyped.

And Maddox is back.

[Politician]

It appears that New Jersey is the slowest state so far.

[Politician]

Even Wulfric can probably call NJ-SEN for Hugin now.

[Politician]

And I'm going to bed now, tell me in tomorrow morning.

[Politician]

Oh my god, I nearly had a heart attack this morning. Good that Democrats avoided a shut-out in any of the 3 districts, though I wanted Applegate to win in CA-49.

[Politician]

Democrats really over-shot their coverage in a lot of these competitive districts - with the exception of the seats that California Dems have been typically targeting recently (CA-10, CA-25, and dear god CA-21 where Valadao crossed 60%).

After tonight I'm gonna just say CA-21 is Safe R for Valadao and CA-49 is looking more and more like Lean D (Dems are AHEAD of the GOP in a district that was basically made to be Safe Issa and a district with an R registration advantage).

I'd hold off on calling CA-21 safe right now. The Dem base there turns their ballots in last second (read: it'll take weeks to know what really happened), and always has pretty weak primary turnout

Agreed. Democrats in CA-21 often do not vote in primaries.

[Politician]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

RINO Tom won't be happy to see this.

[Politician]

My last projections for the June 5 primaries:

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - IA:

Secretary of State
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Deidre DeJear
80,950   51.2%   
Jim Mowrer
77,258   48.8   
158,208 votes, 100% reporting (1,677 of 1,677 precincts)

Agriculture Secretary
Republican Primary
Counties Reporting: 99 / 99
REP REP   Ray Gaesser16.21%14,287
REP REP   Chad Ingels8.89%7,833
REP REP   Craig Lang18.56%16,355
REP REP   Mike Naig34.74%30,616
REP REP   Dan Zumbach21.38%18,841
Write-in0.24%208
88,140

RESULT: No Winner, all candidates advance to open convention.

-----------------

WULFRIC PROJECTION - NM:

Land Commissioner
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Stephanie Garcia Richard
65,336   39.5%   
Garrett Veneklasen
61,584   37.2   
George Munoz
38,551   23.3   
165,471 votes, 98% reporting (1,463 of 1,492 precincts)

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - MT:

Senate
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Matt Rosendale
51,521   33.8%   
Russ Fagg
43,220   28.4   
Troy Downing
29,156   19.1   
Al Olszewski
28,547   18.7   
152,444 votes, 99% reporting (660 of 669 precincts)

Senate
Independent Party Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Steve Kelly
935   59.3%   
Timothy Adams
643   40.7   
1,578 votes, 99% reporting (660 of 669 precincts)

U.S. House At-Large District
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kathleen Williams
37,062   33.5%   
John Heenan
35,111   31.7   
Grant Kier
26,812   24.2   
Lynda Moss
5,555   5.0   
John Meyer
3,668   3.3   
Jared Pettinato
2,431   2.2   
110,639 votes, 99% reporting (660 of 669 precincts)


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In other news, all of my projections for this set of primaries were correct.

Can you finally move CA-GOV to Safe D???

[Politician]

In semi-unrelated news,

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1004242203881934848

Good riddance.

[Politician]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/no-democrats-haven-t-shown-they-re-going-win-house-n880516

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You do realize there are a lot of mostly Democratic votes left to count, right? And Dem turnout was up from 2016?