Côte d'Ivoire/Ivory Coast thread

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Côte d'Ivoire! not Ivory Coast

Well, yes, it turned very slowly in something more and more nasty and that could become still more in the future.

In the beginning mmost of violences would have been commited by different kinds of pro Gbagbo forces, but step by step now it's from both sides. In Abobo, big pro Ouattara district of Abidjan pro Gbagbo do less street fights and kidnappings but now they shell homes, and on the other side, for example, pro Ouattara commited things like burning alive some people about which they had some doubts, like some foreigners.

So much things that make more and more refugees within the country and in bordering countries, especially Liberia, UN assess that their number could reach soon 1 million, several thousands have anyways fled Abidjan during the 2 last months, and Liberia would have also already welcomed several thousands.

During the last days, Blé Goudé has apparently started to excite young crowds to fight for Gbagbo again and started a 'recruiting campaign' to 'recruit' the maximum of partisan in the army. According to some observers Gbagbo would have kept enough money to arm some people, beside the part of the regular army that would remain faithful to him, and without speaking of eventual foreign mercenaries (a growing job nowadays...).

On the ground, Ouattara forces decided to stop to wait and to take power by force now, for a few days they past the 'border' within the country and began to seriously conquer cities toward the south, notably some strategical ones. Soro, Ouattara's PM, chief of the Northern Rebellion in the 2000s, just gave an interview to France24 from the march, they have just reached the capital Yamousoukro today, they don't control it yet though, and don't know whether there will be resistance, they call for people to rally them. According to him, so far, they didn't meet much resistance from populations since they have past the border. They want to continue their march toward the south and especially Abidjan. They give a few hours to Gbagbo to step down before they decide to continue their progression.

On the regional scale, seems Angola remains the big supporter of Gbagbo, I'm not sure how far that one is ready to go though, and what are the exact interest or reasons that motivate this strong support so far. Zuma seems to kinda support Gbagbo as well, but less staunchly apparently, not sure he would risk South Africa in something nasty. About 2 months ago, ECOWAS was apparently ready to military intervene mainly through Nigerian forces, they were going to ask the permission to UN but AU tried some new mediations and seem ready to enchain mediations over mediations, this kinda being a 'club of dictators' they may not be inclined to legitimate some process that would hunt one of them. In case it would turn bad for Gbagbo, one can hope that a country like Angola don't try to intervene, otherwise Nigeria could ask for force again, and here could go a regional war. The fact that the climate turns more and more nasty especially in Abidjan, and at least quite tense in some other parts of the country, also made that lots of foreigners precipitately left the country for neighboring countries to which they belong, which would add some instability in the region.

So, lots of hazardous perspectives so far, one thing is sure is that the climate is quite unsure, and that lots of things are possible. Other thing which seem to be quite sure, is that apparently lots of civilians in Côte d'Ivoire are tired of all these conflicts that last for years now, then maybe that less fuel for a big civil war. Just wish the best to people there.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yes, now it's okay to not care about either. Yay!

We can care all you want, but we're not the world's 911 dispatch center.

And nobody asked you to be, though that 'we' would have to be clarified.

Indeed I expected that some people would come with 'Why we're in Lybia and 'we' do nothing there??'. Yeah people in West can continue to think as if they had to rule the world, and all its slightest troubles no matter the different kind of conditions. For the record, technically there already is a force there to protect civilians, a UN force of 10,000 soldiers, something that in theory was the fit solution for this kind of conflict, that is a possible actual civil war, only between civilians, not involving a whole army of a country engaging in massive war crimes against some people that were only civilians in the beginning like in Libya. Gbagbo seem to have sometimes use some more or less official forces to make nasty things, but things reamin unclear so far, and in term of pace, outside of the days following the conflict in which there had quickly been about 200 hundred people who died in street fights, it really went slowly, then in theory 10,000 soldiers to protect civilians were fit, and they were there from before the elections.

In theory only because seems that because either a miss of organization of the UN force (yes, those very exotic worldwide mixes of soldiers catapulted in difficult conflicts like this anywhere in the world seem to clearly be not a great solution), and because of the regular army which prevented them to act efficiently, concretely it seemed to have clear problems to achieve its mission, that is when they didn't have to defend themselves from being attacked by some Gbagbo forces. But it was here, maybe in the future people will try to consider doing something efficient in that realm, such as something of the kind of what I proposed in an other post maybe, something that would work...

Moreover, that's cute to say that 'the white men' do nothing for 'the black men', but in term of 'psychological imperialism' that's not better. Côte d'Ivoire belongs to a region of the World, Western Africa, and belongs to a big organization there, ECOWAS, and those people, 'some black men', had taken this conflict in charge, they didn't call for 'the great white men who feel it's their duty to fix everything' to help them, they were even about to act, they have been prevented by an other organization of 'black men', AU, which in fact would have kinda tried to twist the things in favor of Gbagbo, thus why the situation was politically blocked and why it has been more easy for it to turn very slowly in a nasty situation without having much attention. So the 'poor black men' didn't wait for the 'great white men', it's about the regionalization of conflicts, in the same way it made still more sense that France was in the front line to intervene in a Mediterranean country with an other European power, UK, along with some other European countries since EU has most of the northern Mediterranean coasts, in the same way it would make more sense that Brazil intervened to try to rule a conflict between Chile and Argentina instead of China, India, or Russia.

That being said, if the situation were about to quickly degenerate there with big war crimes and with possibilities to have still more in the future, what happened in Libya then, theorically I'll be the 1st to push for my country to do something the way it did in Libya (yeah, theorically only in this case, because here, I'm not sure that it would be a good idea that France is on the front line in Côte d'Ivoire... though, if nobody wanted to go, why not, as long as intentions are clearly shown).

An Independent Force for Civilians would rule a lot of those questions.

Oh, and, there is oil too there sweeties, it has been found in the recent years offshore, it's in the hands of French companies, such as most of big economical infrastructures of the country, and all those very big French companies, especially the 2 main ones nicknamed the B&B, Bouygues and Bolloré, had very good relationships with Laurent Gbagbo, which didn't prevent Sarkozy to loudly and toughly give an ultimatum to Gbagbo to quit the power one week after the elections, and this for someone, Ouattara, who would be far less inclined to follow the good old rules of partnership with France. And yesterday evening, France, with Nigeria, passed a new UN resolution to call for Gbagbo to leave and to pass strong sanctions against him and his close relationships. The very tough attitude Sarkozy had against Gbagbo, beyond the fact you can wonder about the legitimacy for a leader of a country to call for a leader of an other one to leave as long as some crimes haven't been committed, was, 1st, not very smart, since it really didn't help to make the situation less tense there, with people playing on nationalism against all kinds of imperialism (US haven't been better), but overall, in term of 'cynical imperialism' it was kinda silly, French companies already had the most they could have in term of economical interests there and could have hidden behind 'we are the former colonial power, we prefer to stay discrete', but no, France preferred to loudly support a new situation, one more example of very awkward cynical imperialism apparently...

So, maybe things are a bit more subtle than 'why don't we help here?? and here?? and there??!' (the 'we' still needs to be defined, since such a 'we' would fit more the American psychology, of which moreover most of the interventions worldwide would have been more for its own sake than to help anybody most of the time, not to speak of the fact that most of the time it 'unhelped' more than it helped...), 'that's only because here there is oil! and there not! come on!'. lol.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Would be speeding up there.

Last news:

The Ouattara forces took Yamoussoukro yesterday in the evening, and San Pedro, the biggest worldwide cocoa export port, in the beginning of the night. Apparently there hadn't been much resistance in either, military and gendarmerie forces would have rallied them all along of their march, apparently only a bit of mess in San Pedro. They seem to haven't met the slightest resistance from authorities and population so far, according to them only some from some mercenaries and militians, and not much so far apparently. They claim controlling 3/4 of the territory.

Right now they are at 100 km from Abidjan. Earlier in the day Ouattara made a TV speech to call for people and all official forces to join them. A few hours ago the chief of the Ivorian military staff took refuge with is family in the South African ambassy, so far he stayed faithfull but he wasn't seen as a big military support of Gbagbo, his mainly military support would be the Presidential Guard and some special forces, which would be a few tens of thousands of men still, most of the regular army had voted for Ouattara. There has also been some reports of heavy gun fire heard in Abidjan in the last hours, and that a prison would have been broken there too.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

(Thanks for the thread title , yeah, beyond the fact that I like to defend French words and that it sounds far more beautiful than 'Ivory Coast' seems that it also is its internationally recognized name)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Soro just gave a new interview to France24, according to him their troops are surrounding Abidjan now, they give a 'few hours' ultimatum to Gbagbo to step down, he also said other big officials would announce their defection soon.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh, Ouattara's ultimatum to Gbagbo to resign is 21h French hour (8 pm GMT if summer hour is counted).

The Golf Hostel blockade has stopped a few hours ago.

Some lootings of Gbagbo's 'Young Patriots' and some aggressions of French/Not black people happened during the last hours too, which started the deployment of the French force in Abidjan, which has about 1,000 soldiers there to protect the noticeable French community but they also protected other attacked communities of 'not black people', something which could participate to tensions.

That being said, dunno how it would evolve, but so far seems it doesn't remain much chance to Gbagbo to keep the power during a long time.

And we just heard that UN forces have just taken the control of Abidjan airport.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And Ouattara ordered a curfew on Abidjan from 9 pm to 6 am local time, and the shutting of all borders.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Apparently lots of lootings are taking place, some heavy fights in different parts of the city too, notably around the Presidential Palace, UN and French forces would be overwhelmed to achieve their mission. Some houses of several figureheads have been looted too, those of the Chief of Staff Mangou and of the PM Affi N'Guessan according to an Abidjan's website.

Ouattara's site would be claiming that the Presidential compound is fallen in the hands of Republican forces (Ouattara's forces), but can't be checked yet.

A few mins ago Ouattara announced the immediate reopening of 'air borders', but not of terrestrial and maritime ones.

That pic, a looting with UN who would be like watching would be kinda symbolic of what's going on:

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Apparently it's the Presidential Palace of Cocody which would have been abandoned by Gbabgo's family which would be fallen in the hands of Republican forces. Though still no confirmation.

But, the main Presidential Palace, the one in the district of Le Plateau wouldn't has fallen at all, and Gbabgo family would have took refuge in it after having fled Cocody's. They would be currently defended by some Angolans, some mercenaries, the Republican Guard and some forces in charge of the security of the President according to someone close to Gbagbo clan.

Heavy fights would be mainly happening around the Plateau's palace and the State TV in Cocody. Lots of lootings continue.

Oh, and seems it's over there, maybe UN has been 'efficient' finally:

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

^ Maybe the ambiance would kinda better yes:

Elephants All Stars - Infarktus

So, apparently neither Cocody's nor Le Plateau's palaces have fallen, and the RTI (state TV) which had stopped to air on Thursday, has started again, and some glorifying programs for Gbagbo, then it wouldn't be fallen either, and Gbagbo would be providing a staunch resistance to defend all of those.

Yesterday several big officials of the army publicly joined Ouattara too, but today, there has apparently also been some calls from pro Gbagbos in the army to mobilize their troops.

There also been this report of more than 800 people killed in Duékoué, strategical western city, on Tuesday, that is when pro-Ouattaras took it, so far would seem that exactions would have been committed by both parts, some pro Ouattara forces/supporters, and some pro Gbagbo Liberian mercenaries (about 1,000 of them have been arrested 2 days ago in Liberia after they came back from Côte d'Ivoire).

Seems the mess and lootings continue in Abidjan.

Ouattara troops better neutralize Gbagbo the fastest possible, before the minds change and that more and more people decide to fight against them, and then it eventually spread in other cities, and that new Duékoué appear.

Oh and, here is a map of Abidjan:



http://news.abidjan.net/cartes/abidjan.asp

It comes from a site that seem to be rather serious, they would be rather pro Ouattara but don't seem much biased, they report things from different sources. Orange is fights, red is looting. It is sometimes updated.

France decided to send 150 more soldiers, which makes 1,100 French soldiers, and 1,400 French and other foreigners took refuge in the French military camp in the south of the city, the 43ème BIMA in Port-Bouet.

And well, still about music, here is one which has been a big hit in France last summer, made by a Parisian rap band, and which seems to have been a big hit there too, and that I often heard in some video reports from there, notably in moments where people galvanize or motivate themselves, in both camps, ambiance:

Désolé- Sexion d'Assaut

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh no...

Now we have Gbagbo spreading scary messages thanks to RTI saying that 'the men of Sarkozy are preparing a Rwanda genocide' in Côte d'Ivoire and that French forces are an occupation army, hopefully Ivorians won't give much credit to it. Time is playing for Gbagbo so far though, the fights seem to have almost stopped today, and according to a French who lives in Abidjan, Gbagbo forces are totally free to patrol in the city and on the waters, and they have also called lots of partisans to join them to protect palaces and to block the 2 bridges that lead to them (which in the same time makes human shields), and their call has apparently been followed since you could have seen lots of people on bridges and on boats who would be heading toward this.

ONUCI publicly accuses Ouattara forces of exactions in Duékoué too. ONUCI also had 4 soldiers heavily wounded in an attack from Gbagbo soldiers according to them.

France sent 300 more soldiers, and the French forces took the control of Abidjan international airport. They also evacuated 167 French and Lebanese to Senegal through Togo.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yes they do have colour:

http://www.rti.ci/cgi-bin/page.cgi?g=266%2Findex.html;d=1

And in French media it's all colorful.

Also, Gbagbo isn't the only one to play with TV, Ouattara has 'his' own TV channel, the TCI.

Well, about the risk of 'genocide', well better only using the term 'ethnic fights' so far, unless it was a strategy from Gbagbo to trap them afterward, the progression of Ouattara forces wouldn't have met a lot of resistance, apparently mainly in the west in Duékoué and around, at least given informations we have so far, which would show that Ivorians, populations and forces, would for most of them recognize the legitimacy of Ouattara, or at least don't want to engage in a fight, a lot of them effectively seem to be tired of all those conflicts lasting for years, and there has never been big ethnic fights in the country, then there are chances that scary messages from Gbagbo about genocide wouldn't be much heard, people could also see the blatant threads Gbagbo try to play on. Also, Ouattara and Soro said there would be trials to judge the exactions that have been committed so far.

Though, the more it lasts in Abidjan, the more it's good for Gbagbo, and who knows, troubles could spread outside of Abidjan if Gbagbo resists a long time.

Ouattara forces have just launched the 'final assault' on Abidjan less than one hour ago. Yesterday seems there were something like thousands of civilian partisans on main axises of the city who answered the call of Gbagbo to defend him, if they stay here to oppose Ouattara forces, then that not gonna be easy, and it could even turn nasty since a Ouattara military guy of which I don't know the level said that all those who would resist the forces during the hours of the curfew would be considered 'enemies', and those partisans showed in 2004 how they didn't fear to oppose the weapons of the French army for example. Let's just hope people won't be stupid in both camps.

About France, it sent 150 more soldiers, making it between 1,600 and 1,700, of which 300 are Légionnaires, it decided yesterday to gather all French of the capital who wanted it together in different part of the south of Abidjan, there is about 12,000 French civilians in Abidjan, no major plan of evacuation so far. It took the control of Abidjan airport in an agreement with UNOCI. And all observers say that if UNOCI had to do some strong interventions, then it's mainly the French forces that would technically be able to do that, even while UNOCI forces are far more numerous; nobody should hope that French forces have to be on a front line in Côte d'Ivoire, would be all in favor of Gbagbo. Though, luckily, apparently the power decides to play less the confrontation with French living here than last time, since on RTI it said that Gbagbo soldiers would protect French people, which didn't prevent some them to be looted and aggressed by some guys, but apparently there isn't a 'French hunting' so far. Also, Sarkozy is regularly in communication with Ouattara.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh.

French forces have been asked by UN, and according to last UN resolution that France and Nigeria passed about one week ago, to bomb the heavy military equipment of Gbagbo's army that threaten civilians and UN employeds. And French forces just bombed a Gbagbo military camp.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

UN helicopters are also opening fire on Gbagbo palaces.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Here is the last map:



According to numerous people who post from there in a liveblogging, there has been very heavy fights in different districts of Abidjan about one hour ago, it would keep continuing but with a lower intensity, while still with heavy weapons. Different districts in which it happened where Treichville, Le Plateau, Angré, Cocody, Koumassi. There would also be an heavy rain on the city. Someone in Koumassi says that water is cut.

According to people there, the RTI would have just stopped to broadcast.

The French Chief of Staff said that they target heavy military equipments and columns of tanks that threaten civilians. An AFP reporter saw 4 French helicopters bombing the camp of Agban in the north, the camp of Akuédo would be bombed by UN helicopters, those both camps are the military fortresses of Gbagbo in Abidjan, and during last days persisting noises said that Gbagbo could be in Agban.

UN say that they decided to engage military actions because Gbagbo forces would have done military actions against civilians.

The blue thing on the map is where 4 or 5 people would have been kidnapped, amongst them there are 2 French, a director of the big hostel in which they have been kidnapped and a guy who leads the administration council of an important Ivorian company apparently.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A very few hours ago, Ouattara forces announced that the 'final assault' against Gbagbo palaces was imminent, in 3 groups, one for the presidential residency of Cocody, one for the presidential palace of Le Plateau, and one for the important military camp of Agban. They had apparently already fought in the big pro Gbagbo district of Yopougon (west of the city), which would mean they control it, UN forces had also taken the control of the 2 bridges in the center of the city. It has also been confirmed that, beside the important military camps in the north of the city, UN and French helicopters had targeted the heavy military equipment around Gbagbo palaces.

And now, Reuters just says that a Ouattara spokesman claim that their forces have taken the presidential residency of Cocody, without specifying whether Gbagbo was there.

They plan to finish military operations this night they earlier said. They better do it, because I'm not sure that Ivorians can afford that UN and French forces bomb during a long time.

Also beside the 2 French, the 2 other kidnapped are one Beninese and one Malaysian.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Fights have apparently stopped a few hours ago.

The Chief of Military Staff and the Commandants of Gendarmerie Nationale and of the  Republican Guard called UNOCI to tell them that they ordered a stop of the fights of their forces and of special forces, to give weapons to UNOCI, and asked the protection for their forces.

Earlier, Gbagbo Foreign Minister, and the chief of protocol of the presidency, took refuge in the French embassy, that's apparently him who negotiated the ceasefire, and he says they did it because most of their heavy military equipment has been destroyed.

According to him Gbagbo would be in a bunker of his residency with a very few people of his govt, his staff, and his family. According to French PM and Foreign Affairs Minister, he would currently be negotiating his departure and his security through 2 military generals. AU also says that they would be participating in some negotiations, and Juppé also said that France was close to convince Gbagbo to step down.

Apparently Abidjan is very calm right now.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

One hasn't surrendered though:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7gljZCYJsM&feature=player_embedded#at=37

Blé Goudé, chief of 'Young Patriots', he says that God is with them and call for resistance. Posted on a pro Gbagbo media, Cameroonvoice, which apparently has a radio and a website. Hopefully he won't be followed.

According to some people posting from Abidjan, in some places it is very calm but in others there are still men in arms (apparently rather youngs who had been given one or who stole it) and some people who continue to loot.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So, after some contradictory news from Reuters saying that Gbagbo had surrendered, then UN saying that he was willing to surrender but didn't yet, then there has been this interview from Gbagbo given to the French news channel LCI, in which he says that he doesn't want to recognize that Ouattara has won, and serves all the speech he usually serves, it was the 1st time he spoke since the beginning of the military conflict in Abidjan, here is for those who get French:

http://www.wat.tv/video/titre-interview-exclusive-3l7lp_2exyh_.html

Earlier France and UN demanded him to sign a paper saying that Ouattara had won the elections. He also says that he isn't 'a kamikaze' but that he is tired, but he seems to speak very calmly.

In the end of the afternoon, some French military vehicles passed the bridges from the south to the north of the city. And some military fights continue to take place here or there, notably in the district of Cocody.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Juppé said that negotiations between Ouattara and Gbagbo, in which UN and France have only been mediators, and that took place during several hours in the night, have failed.

This morning, heavy fights took place from dawn to midday around Cocody's residency on which Ouattara forces decided to launch an assault. Failed. And they lost several men.

They decided to launch a new one later in the day, some recent reports would indicate that it has failed again.

Apparently Gbagbo has very good soldiers around him, and Ouattara forces would miss of men, experience, good military equipment.

So far France said that it didn't want to participate to such an assault. Ouattara also said that Gbagbo has to stay alive.

Humanitarian situation turns pretty bad in Abidjan, serious misses of water, food, and also electric power and communications. Not to speak of dead people there can be here or there in streets, and of guys in arms who would continue to spread unsecurity and looting.

Interestingly enough, after LCI interview, yesterday evening, Gbagbo gave one to RFI (Radio France International), big international French public radio, which would be quite listened in Africa, in this interview he's been more clear on the fact that he would like to speak directly to Ouattara. This interview would be the biggest way for him to communicate with the people of Côte d'Ivoire, since French helicopters destroyed the possibilities to air for state TV and radio.

So, so far, seems would remain 3 solutions:

Successful assault on the residency (hopefully French forces don't have to intervene, and hopefully he doesn't die in it, not to appear like a martyr)

Siege, and step by step people and soldiers around him feel they couldn't resist and surrender, and the final assault on him will be far more easy (that's not guaranteed that people would still easily surrender though, and overall it could last long Gbagbo could have organized some supply for a long time, and maybe independent infrastructures for water and electric power)

Or, Ouattara decides to meet him in person (totally hazardous and doesn't guarantee a solution at all, and Ouattara's security could be endangered, a media presence could help though)

...or something else.

Gaddafi might get interest in Ivorian news...