Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Cranberry]

If they could also pass direct democracy legislation that would be great, but I'm guessing neither party is really that supportive of that.

Definitely not.

It takes a while to prepare legislation like this and even under their regular coalition it was only planned for 2022 ...

They never planned on enacting anything like that anyway - otherwise they wouldn't have set goals significantly higher than either party spoke of during the campaign and completely ignored "direct democracy" last year when 15% of the voting population signed an anti-smoke petition. It's not an issue they really care about other than scoring some cheap political points with it.

[Cranberry]

What's the reasoning for the FPÖ to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?

There's a big wing within the FPÖ who has no problems accepting climate change as a fact and the FPÖ also usually is a pro-environmental party. Even more so with Hofer now than with Strache.

That's not true, the FPÖ are climate change deniers to the bone - remember Strache denying climate change or praising Trump for exiting the Paris agreement? Hofer himself is far more concerned with combatting chemtrails than climate change, their recent seemingly u-turn is entirely due to the fact that they realised which way the wind blows these days.

Austrian Green didn't vote against Glyphosate???

Looks like you need to switch up your vote Tender, as this is basically one of the most "un-green" things I've ever seen.

Better to drive a 4.0 L Raptor than to spray cancer juice across the country.

Seeing as the Greens are currently not in parliament, how could they have voted against it?

[Cranberry]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

[Cranberry]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.

[Cranberry]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.

And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SPÖ in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. ÖVP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the ÖVP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.

[Cranberry]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.

And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SPÖ in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. ÖVP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the ÖVP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.

You really don't see that coming seriously? The medias are playing this narrative

It doesn't make sense to me, no. Kogler himself called it extremely unlikely yesterday ("I lack the fantasy needed to imagine that"), which is not a surprise, given Kurz has spent the last two years acting completely contrary to the Green's interests.

https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15756081/gruenen-chef-kogler-fuer-koalition-mit-kurz-fehlt-mir-die-fantasie

[Cranberry]

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

[Cranberry]

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FPÖ if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

[Cranberry]

That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

Hahaha, this would be a hilariously unpopular disaster. Don't you think it was a mistake for Kurz to pull the plug? If I were the ÖVP I'd be cautiously shifting away from the anti-FPÖ talk, as they remain by far the easiest coalition partner and ÖVP-FPÖ by far remains the coalition in which the ÖVP can acquire the most powerful position...

Of course it would be, but that I don't think that this would hold back the usual suspects to try it anyway.
It's become pretty clear Kurz tried to copy Schüssel all along and just waited for the best moment to pull the plug to subsequently win the election so big that he could take everyone. Of course, history repeats itself second as a farce, so just wait and see if he didn't gamble too big.

[Cranberry]

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FPÖ if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

If Germany is any indication, going for ÖVP-SPÖ would be suicidal for at least one of the 2 (most likely SPÖ) and arguably both.

If SPÖ-Greens-NEOS does not get a majority and neither does ÖVP-NEOS, I think the best course of action would be ÖVP-FPÖ again.

Then again grand coalitions are even more common in Austria than in Germany if I am not mistaken? And SPÖ seems more competent than the German SPD?

Let's not act as if grand coalitions are anything but the norm in Austria - we've had three so far: 1945-1966 (ÖVP/SPÖ), 1987-1999 and 2006-2017 (both SPÖ/ÖVP). It certainly wouldn't be a disaster of the German level, round here it's far more a return to the norm rather than an unpopular experiment. It certainly wouldn't be popular with voters, but neither would be any other possible government majority I can think of. The problem is that there is a clear centre-right majority in Austria whose government just broke up but whose voters stay with their parties. In essence, the relationship between the "blocks" (SPÖ/Greens/Jetzt vs ÖVP/FPÖ with Neos in the middle) hasn't really changed since 2017, but the "right block" that clearly has a majority just broke up.

[Cranberry]

The book also features a lot of historical election results of the district and its towns from the 1920s and 1930s (before elections were banned altogether under the Nazis).

Didn't need Nazis for that, our very own fascists were perfectly capable of that themselves.

[Cranberry]

As the mosque closings have been mentioned, it should perhaps be added that every single measure taken there (closure of 7 mosques, expulsion of several ATIB (Turkish) Imams, closure of the (Saudi-financed) Arab religious community) has since then been rendered null and void by the courts, partially due to legal form errors and partially due to disagreeing with basic rights and freedoms. There is a very large probability that any hypothetical measures regarding the IBÖ would suffer the same fate. Incidentally, that is a very recurring theme when it comes to Sebastian Kurz's record in goverment (whether as foreign minister or as chancellor), so very fitting perhaps.

[Cranberry]

Why is the SPOe doing so poorly in polls even? Is Rendi-Wagner an ineffective leader?

At least part of the answer to that lies in the fact that the SPÖ not losing votes in 2017 was for the largest part due to "borrowed" votes from the Greens that were never going to stay once the Greens got their act together again - i.e. a large portion of 2017 SPÖ voters used to reliably vote Green before and do now again so (look no further than the results in Vienna's 7th district for the perfect example) The "real" loss of votes for the SPÖ, or better the left-wing camp in general, was between 2013 and 2017 - in the last two years all changes were basically intra-bloc (FPÖ -> ÖVP, SPÖ+Jetzt -> Greens), with Neos in the middle syphoning off a few votes from everywhere; quite interestingly, the balance of power between left and right has changed remarkably little.

[Cranberry]

That's actually the second poll I've seen with relatively decent (by comparison) numbers for SPÖ with the under 30s - that's kind of goes against the received wisdom about who their electorate normally consists of.

Exit polls from the EP election showed a similar picture - Greens and Neos stronger the younger the voters, SPÖ and FPÖ basically even throughout all ages, ÖVP stronger the older with a huge lead among pensioners. Compare that to 2013 for instance to get a completely different picture more align with the SPD electorate, for instance. It seems to me as if the left- to right- exodus between 13 and 17 was carried much more by older voters, while it largely glossed over the under 30.

[Cranberry]

One of the last polls (IGF) has very strange results:

   32% ÖVP
   26% FPÖ
   19% SPÖ
   11% Greens
     8% NEOS
  3-4% Now
  0-1% Others

Wiki Link

Reading the linked article on the wiki page reveals that this is unweighted raw data, so this is probably to be taken with quite some precaution.

[Cranberry]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

As others have already alluded, it's quite impossible to say with any degree of certainty. The big problem behind this is Sebastian Kurz - he called this election in hopes of pulling a Schüssel 2002 and scoring above 40%, having his choice of potential partner; but all signs point to him finishing more or less where he was since 2017, with at most meagre gains of 2-3%. He both failed at cannibalising the FPÖ (which would have allowed him to continue the government very much at his terms) and at gaining voters to his left (which would have allowed him to go into government with a weakened SPÖ that doesn't have to fear much from their left). As it stands now, he gained a few FPÖ voters; and the centre-left bloc interchanged voters between themselves (interestingly, if there was movement between blocs, it appears to have actually occured right-to-left, according to the latest polls), but the raw numbers have not changed much since 2017.

What has changed is the attitude of the political players - where ÖVP-FPÖ was a natural option then, a lot has happened to destroy trust on both sides. Hofer may want government participation at any price, but the powerful ÖVP state parties have a word to say in this as well (arguably they forced Kurz to break off the coalition at this point over Kickl), and so do the Strache / Kickl wing in the FPÖ. They may not be willing to pay just any price, and after all, the FPÖ is nowhere better than in opposition.

ÖVP-SPÖ, the ancestral plan B of Austrian politics, is as little appealing as ever. A lot of bad blood still exists between the two, and not only at the top level. Furthermore, the SPÖ needs to take just a very short peak north to see what can happen when you go into government as a junior partner to a conservative party (that would be the first time since 1966, non the less!) while you have a re-emerged green party on your left flank. In the end, as the SPÖ is still a party that never really finds its tune in opposition, and as the current leadership is easily disposed of if that were a problem, it might just still happen, but the chances are definitely slimmer than during most of recent history.

All the other options are more or less pipe dreams, imo: three-party-governments have no history in Austria, and the Greens would be opting for suicide if they went into one with both ÖVP and Neos; ÖVP-Greens and ÖVP-Neos won't have a majority, not even speaking of the political difficulties, and I won't even begin to speak of SPÖ-FPÖ.

So we are really at a point where nothing really makes sense and nothing really satisifies anyone, and we're a few millions the poorer for it. Congratulations, Sebastian Kurz.

As for your Greens question - into parliament? Yes of course. Into government? Probably not (but then again, who does, except for Kurz?)

[Cranberry]

One of the last polls (IGF) has very strange results:

   32% ÖVP
   26% FPÖ
   19% SPÖ
   11% Greens
     8% NEOS
  3-4% Now
  0-1% Others

Wiki Link

Reading the linked article on the wiki page reveals that this is unweighted raw data, so this is probably to be taken with quite some precaution.

Yeah, 26% for the FPÖ seems far too high.

19% for the SPÖ too low (the cities will keep them above 20%).

3-4% for Pilz seems not implausible, but 2-3% seems more accurate.

BTW: Cranberry, who are you voting for ? I have already cast my vote for the Greens.

The same as you, I also sent off my postal ballot sometime this week. Where it was a decision with a lot of stomach ache the last time (also voted for the Greens then), pretty obvious choice this time around.

[Cranberry]

What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

As others have already alluded, it's quite impossible to say with any degree of certainty. The big problem behind this is Sebastian Kurz - he called this election in hopes of pulling a Schüssel 2002 and scoring above 40%, having his choice of potential partner; but all signs point to him finishing more or less where he was since 2017, with at most meagre gains of 2-3%. He both failed at cannibalising the FPÖ (which would have allowed him to continue the government very much at his terms) and at gaining voters to his left (which would have allowed him to go into government with a weakened SPÖ that doesn't have to fear much from their left). As it stands now, he gained a few FPÖ voters; and the centre-left bloc interchanged voters between themselves (interestingly, if there was movement between blocs, it appears to have actually occured right-to-left, according to the latest polls), but the raw numbers have not changed much since 2017.

What has changed is the attitude of the political players - where ÖVP-FPÖ was a natural option then, a lot has happened to destroy trust on both sides. Hofer may want government participation at any price, but the powerful ÖVP state parties have a word to say in this as well (arguably they forced Kurz to break off the coalition at this point over Kickl), and so do the Strache / Kickl wing in the FPÖ. They may not be willing to pay just any price, and after all, the FPÖ is nowhere better than in opposition.

ÖVP-SPÖ, the ancestral plan B of Austrian politics, is as little appealing as ever. A lot of bad blood still exists between the two, and not only at the top level. Furthermore, the SPÖ needs to take just a very short peak north to see what can happen when you go into government as a junior partner to a conservative party (that would be the first time since 1966, non the less!) while you have a re-emerged green party on your left flank. In the end, as the SPÖ is still a party that never really finds its tune in opposition, and as the current leadership is easily disposed of if that were a problem, it might just still happen, but the chances are definitely slimmer than during most of recent history.

All the other options are more or less pipe dreams, imo: three-party-governments have no history in Austria, and the Greens would be opting for suicide if they went into one with both ÖVP and Neos; ÖVP-Greens and ÖVP-Neos won't have a majority, not even speaking of the political difficulties, and I won't even begin to speak of SPÖ-FPÖ.

So we are really at a point where nothing really makes sense and nothing really satisifies anyone, and we're a few millions the poorer for it. Congratulations, Sebastian Kurz.

As for your Greens question - into parliament? Yes of course. Into government? Probably not (but then again, who does, except for Kurz?)

Looking at that it seems coalition building will be very hard if not impossible

How likely is a repeat election some time in early 2020?

So far, a government has always been formed, but early elections after a year have happened - in 1971 after a SPÖ-minority, in 1995 when (as usual) the ÖVP broke off a Grand Coalition. I suppose some sort of government will be formed (what would elections directly afterwards change anyway?), but I doubt it will last the full five years (which would put it in good company - 6 of the last 14 elections have been early elections: 1986, 1995, 2002, 2008, 2017, 2019)

[Cranberry]

Yeah someone in the four serious negotiating parties needs to bend (NEOS are happy with any Kurz govt) from their current position for there to be a govt. Bending tends to result in 'snap-backs' later on when beneficial.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. If the polls are to believed, Kurz's first government with the FPÖ ended with them near doubling their vote share (they're matching the ÖVP for the second largest increase), most of which of course will have come straight from the ÖVP (disregarding first-time voters where Neos will have a disproportionate share). Liberal opposition to a right-wing government seems to do them well, while propping up just anything with ÖVP in it doesn't necessarily have to. If they are clever, they will cost Kurz more than he would hope for.

[Cranberry]

My understanding is that at one time the FPO was very much the Austrian sister party to the FDP - but then they got taken over by far right elements and evolved from being a quasi-liberal free market party into more of populist xenophobic party and that NEOS is a bit of an attempt to recreate the old FPO that was more socially liberal and often formed coalitions with the SPO in the 70s and 80s.

is that correct?

An often-repeated myth, but not true at all. The FPÖ was founded explicitly by and for (former) Nazis, its first leaders were all SS-members, for instance. There were some liberal tendencies, most pronounced under people like Friedrich Peter or Norbert Steger, but even they always had some German nationalist / out-right Nazi afterthoughts (Peter was an SS volunteer, Steger comes from a Nazi household and is a member of a German nationalist Burschenschaft). There is still today a very pronounced economically liberal current in the party, one that would not at all be out of place with the pre-Haider FPÖ. Haider did change the party's outer looks and style, but fundamentally, they have always been the same.

[Cranberry]

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS have passed the constitutional deficit and debt brake (in US-terms: a balanced budget amendment) today in the final parliamentary session before the election, with 68% of the vote.

The law would require Austria to have balanced budgets from now on (a max. deficit of 0.45% of GDP is allowed in such events as natural disasters or recession).

This is only symbolic and meaningless though, because SPÖ+Greens will block it in the 2nd chamber of parliament, the chamber representing the states, where NEOS is not part of. Therefore, the Bundesrat has no 2/3 majority for ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS ...

Thank god for the Bundesrat!

[Cranberry]

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS have passed the constitutional deficit and debt brake (in US-terms: a balanced budget amendment) today in the final parliamentary session before the election, with 68% of the vote.

The law would require Austria to have balanced budgets from now on (a max. deficit of 0.45% of GDP is allowed in such events as natural disasters or recession).

This is only symbolic and meaningless though, because SPÖ+Greens will block it in the 2nd chamber of parliament, the chamber representing the states, where NEOS is not part of. Therefore, the Bundesrat has no 2/3 majority for ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS ...

Thank god for the Bundesrat!

I actually support the constitutional law, unlike the Greens.

We need to end the cult of indebting ourselves and instead find ways each year to keep the budget balanced. This is sustainable and responsible politics for future generations.

The other options in the long run are Greece or Venezuela ...

The debt break is already law, just not constitutional. There is no need for it to be, it only cripples the way the state can act in a recession. But of course, the former government suffered from the same disease as nearly all other Austrian governments, putting every little law that does not belong there into the constitution.

[Cranberry]

Sounds like what Kurz really wants is another OVP/FPO government but with his party being much stronger and the FPO much weaker than before.

Yes, he wanted a castrated FPO as his Ally, but the FPO may not want to end up as free Kurz votes with little to show for it in terms of meaningful portfolios. There's also a line of thought that says getting a agreement from the greens to back your constitutional amendments could result in the needed supermajority in the upper chamber sometime during govf, assuming the FPO remain committed to stuff like the debt break.

Seeing as the Greens at present have only two Bundesräte (one each from Vienna and OÖ), but the SPÖ has 21, more than a third of all 61 Bundesräte, they themselves can continue to block constitutional laws. That of course completely ignores the simple fact that the Greens would never support policies such as a constitutional debt break - they are a party of the left, especially at the national level. ÖVP+Greens works on a state level in the West, where the ÖVP as natural party of government is more moderate and the Greens have historic ties to that party; it never will on the national level where both actors are further to their respective ideological sides than the state parties of Vorarlberg or Tirol.

[Cranberry]

Much better than expected! Even third place for the FPÖ is not yet 100% secure.

[Cranberry]

Besides FPÖ+SPÖ+Pilz, the big losers are the pollsters this time.

I knew there was some herding going on ...

Yeah, one of the big stories is how the polls totally failed this time - vastly underestimating ÖVP and Greens, vastly overestimating the FPÖ, who have their worst result since 2006.