Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Zinneke]

If Renzi wins the referendum, will he call a new election to try and get a friendly senate ASAP and gain a "mandate"?

Elections in the spring would be a real possibility.

But that's a pretty big if, since "No" is currently leading in all polls.
The consensus is that the race is at 48% vs 52%, with 15/20% still undecided.

Doesn't a ''No'' trigger an election too, given Renzi's resignation.

[Zinneke]

  Wow, that big of a margin would be a huge slap in the face for Renzi, with his resignation that much more likely.
    I wonder what the regional breakdown will be.  Possible narrow yes victory in Tuscany, Emilia Romagna, losses elsewhere, but where would the biggest no victory be?

Veneto

[Zinneke]

The suggestion that a plurality of the popular vote should be sufficient to totally command the government is the same undemocratic lunacy that gave us Trump and it's terrific to see Italian voters rejecting it.

Uh, what?

He;s right, just 30% of the British public actually vote and endorse a tory government that has full control over Brexit. I prefer our system where all strands of society are represented.

[Zinneke]

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.

[Zinneke]

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.

The M5S membership votes for whatever the leadership decides to, in their fake "direct democracy".

Are the votes rigged, or are the voters just unduly influenced by the opinions of their leaders?

Well from what I heard the issue is how the electorate changes. It votes for one thing one week and a contradictory thing the other.

I'm interested to hear how the leadership influenced this though

[Zinneke]

Yeah, it's harder to work out feasible political solutions when you are actually in Italy and you can see the migrant crisis first-hand. It makes you think about why people do not want an open door to hundreds of thousands more mainly Muslim, mainly irregular, needy migrants, on top of the 600,000 already there (1% of Italy's population). Using public services has just become more difficult in recent years.

It makes you think what offering a path to citizenship for migrants already living in Italy has to do with your "Great Replacement" fantasies about illegal immigrants.