Obama leads Huckabee by 6; Palin and Gingrich by 8; Romney by 9

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_720.pdf

PPP's monthly national poll shows that Obama's approval rating stands at 50-43 and he is holding leads above potential 2012 GOP candidates at similar margins to his November victory. (Some of the crosstabs seem a little off to me, but maybe that's just me.)

President Obama - 48%
Governor Huckabee - 42%

President Obama - 50%
Speaker Gingrich - 42%

President Obama - 51%
Governor Palin - 43%

President Obama - 49%
Governor Romney - 40%

[Devilman88]

This is very good for the Republicans, one PPP has a slight lean to the left on their polls (sometimes), also they over polled the black population and underpolled the Hispanic population.

[Tender Branson]

This is very good for the Republicans, one PPP has a slight lean to the left on their polls (sometimes), also they over polled the black population and underpolled the Hispanic population.

What exactly are you talking about ?

11% Black, 11% Hispanic is overpolled ?

[Devilman88]

This is very good for the Republicans, one PPP has a slight lean to the left on their polls (sometimes), also they over polled the black population and underpolled the Hispanic population.

What exactly are you talking about ?

11% Black, 11% Hispanic is overpolled ?

Shouldn't the Hispanic voting sample be higher then the Black? I'm not to sure.

[Tender Branson]

This is very good for the Republicans, one PPP has a slight lean to the left on their polls (sometimes), also they over polled the black population and underpolled the Hispanic population.

What exactly are you talking about ?

11% Black, 11% Hispanic is overpolled ?

Shouldn't the Hispanic voting sample be higher then the Black? I'm not to sure.

Not really, because many Hispanics tend to be not registered and therefore not likely voters, as many of them are no citizens and of very young age. But in the near future Blacks and Hispanics should account for about the same amount in the Exit Polls, with Hispanics overtaking them by 2020 or so. But 11-11 or 12-12 for 2012 should be rather fine, considering the 13-9 Black-Hispanic ratio in 2008 ...

[Devilman88]

This is very good for the Republicans, one PPP has a slight lean to the left on their polls (sometimes), also they over polled the black population and underpolled the Hispanic population.

What exactly are you talking about ?

11% Black, 11% Hispanic is overpolled ?

Shouldn't the Hispanic voting sample be higher then the Black? I'm not to sure.

Not really, because many Hispanics tend to be not registered and therefore not likely voters, as many of them are no citizens and of very young age. But in the near future Blacks and Hispanics should account for about the same amount in the Exit Polls, with Hispanics overtaking them by 2020 or so. But 11-11 or 12-12 for 2012 should be rather fine, considering the 13-9 Black-Hispanic ratio in 2008 ...

Ah, ok nevermind then. Stupid me

[Tender Branson]

I´m still not sure what PPP means with "voters". Is it registered voters or likely 2009 voters or likely 2010 voters or likely 2012 voters ?

I think it's likely 2009 voters, because their numbers seem to low for a RV poll.

And what is Rasmussen using ? Likely 2012 voters only ?

[Devilman88]

I´m still not sure what PPP means with "voters". Is it registered voters or likely 2009 voters or likely 2010 voters or likely 2012 voters ?

I think it's likely 2009 voters, because their numbers seem to low for a RV poll.

And what is Rasmussen using ? Likely 2012 voters only ?

Who knows, I always take these polls as snap shot if the election were held today.

[Democratic Hawk]

This is very good for the Republicans, one PPP has a slight lean to the left on their polls (sometimes), also they over polled the black population and underpolled the Hispanic population.

What exactly are you talking about ?

11% Black, 11% Hispanic is overpolled ?

Here's how PPP's demographics stack up against the 2008 exit polls:

Liberal: 18% (22%)
Moderate: 43% (44%)
Conservative: 39% (34%)

Male: 45% (47%)
Female: 55% (53%)

Democrat: 42% (39%)
Republican: 35% (33%)
Independent/Other: 23% (28%)

White: 74% (74%)
African-American: 11% (13%)
Hispanic: 11% (9%)
Other: 4% (Asian: 2%)

18-29: 17% (18%)
30-45: 23% (29%)
46-65: 45% (30%)
> 65: 15% (23%)

Northeast: 24% (21%)
South: 34% (32%)
Midwest: 26% (24%)
West: 16% (23%)

[Farage]

i'm dissapointed about romney, proud of palin and not surprised about huckabee.

[Farage]

Palin Favorability
  Northeast South Midwest West

 F-   43%         47%    50%      51%
  U- 45%          47%    42%      45%
 DK-  12%          6%      8%         4%

Palin is definitely popular everywhere!!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't put much stock into polls this far out, and I also don't put more stock into PPP polls in general. If any poll can be called accurate this far out, I'd say Rasmussen is better. They were one of the best in 2004 and 2008.

[Democratic Hawk]

The regional vote in these hypothetical match-ups are interesting:

Obama vs Gingrich

Northeast: Obama 57%; Gingrich 35%
South: Obama 51%; Gingrich 45%
Midwest: Obama 44%; Gingrich 44%
West: Obama 45%; Gingrich 41%

Obama vs Huckabee

Northeast: Obama 52%; Huckabee 39%
South: Obama 51%; Huckabee 42%
Midwest: Obama 43%; Huckabee 46%
West: Obama 46%; Huckabee 39%

Obama vs Palin

Northeast: Obama 52% ; Palin 42%
South: Obama 54% ; Palin 41%
Midwest: Obama 48% ; Palin 43%
West: Obama 45% ; Palin 49%

Obama vs Romney

Northeast: Obama 49% ; Romney 38%
South: Obama 54% ; Romney 36%
Midwest: Obama 48% ; Romney 41%
West: Obama 38% ; Romney 50%

I don't know whether PPP's regions are compatible with the exits but in 2008, it was:

Northeast: Obama 59%; McCain 40%
South: Obama 45%; McCain 54%
Midwest: Obama 54%; McCain 44%
West: Obama 57%; McCain 40%

And to throw a bit of perspective, here are Gallup's most recent regional approvals and Research 2000's:

Gallup [week ending Jul. 12, 2009]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/121199/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Demographic-Groups.aspx

East: 63% approve
South: 52% approve
Midwest: 60% approve
West: 60% approve

Research 2000/DailyKos [week ending Jul. 16, 2009]

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/7/16

Northeast: 86% favorable; 10% unfavorable
South: 35% favorable; 62% unfavorable
Midwest: 69% favorable; 27% unfavorable
West: 67% favorable; 31% unfavorable

[Democratic Hawk]

Palin Favorability
  Northeast South Midwest West

 F-   43%         47%    50%      51%
  U- 45%          47%    42%      45%
 DK-  12%          6%      8%         4%

Palin is definitely popular everywhere!!

Frankly, I wouldn't give a woman who incited hatred on the stump at her rallies towards a political opponent the lickings of a dog. That was Obama Derangement Syndrome at its finest

[Lief 🗽]

PPP was more accurate than Rasmussen in 2008, for what it's worth.

Also these numbers make a lot more sense than Rasmussen's.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

PPP was more accurate than Rasmussen in 2008, for what it's worth.

Also these numbers make a lot more sense than Rasmussen's.

Really? Palin is the strongest candidate in the Northeast for Republicans? How does that make sense?

[Democratic Hawk]

PPP was more accurate than Rasmussen in 2008, for what it's worth.

Also these numbers make a lot more sense than Rasmussen's.

Really? Palin is the strongest candidate in the Northeast for Republicans? How does that make sense?

What's going on in the South? That's enough, were it to ever occur, to make me weep tears of joy!

[Mr. Morden]

According to the crosstabs, Palin is the only Republican who is more popular with the young than the old.  She's also the only one of the four Republicans to lose to Obama in a head-to-head among 65+ year old voters.  The other three lose to Obama among the under 65s, but beat or tie Obama among the over 65s.  Palin loses to Obama among all age groups.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, I would read much into the crosstabs of a 577 voter poll ...