PREDICTIONS THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't have as much time to think about things other than my work (such as it is) at the moment, yet shall do this anyway. And, yea, my predictions (such as they are) shall be terrible.

How to go about this?

Well, I'll just comment on Senate races. That's the easiest way out of making an actual prediction while pretending otherwise. Good. That will be quite soon.

For House races I need a better way of avoiding making predictions, so individual races will be graded as:

Safe - I won't bother listing these
Possible upset - what it says on the tin. Incumbents that are probably safe, but where an outside possibility exists of an upset. Many of these will doubtless end up not being even slightly close.
Marginal - races that lean towards a certain candidate.
Tight - races where a certain candidate has an edge, probably, but not much of one.
Lord Knows - exactly that.
Gone - exactly that.

Kind of. Actually, the main thing is that I know what I mean. This allows me to excuse bad predictions come Wednesday.

[Vepres]

Easy on the self-hatred there

[Psychic Octopus]

Looking forward to some predictions, Al. Hopefully they are up soon.

[Phony Moderate]

Looking forward to some predictions, Al. Hopefully they are up soon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Predictions for the House of Geriatric Millionaires. Part one. New Hampshire (misnamed state much? Hampshire is as flat as a fart) to West Virginia.

New Hampshire - has Hodes led in a single poll yet? Republican hold; wouldn't be surprised if it's not even slightly close.

Vermont - safe D

Connecticut - it's been a bit of a rocky ride for Blumenthal - certainly not the easy victory that seemed so certain early on - but defeat seems out of the question. In fact, he ought to win pretty comfortably. A surprisingly narrow win is possible and would be an indication of serious problems for his party. Obviously.

New York - yaaawnz

New York II - the failure of the NY Republicans to come up with a half way credible candidate is pretty funny. More sleepy, I think.

Pennsylvania - a Toomey defeat would be at least a little shocking; which says a great deal, doesn't it? This is still an important race though; if it's close, maybe this election won't be quite the utter disaster after all. If it's a rout - and that's possible as well - oh... right. Yeah.

Delawhere? - Coons will win, obviously. I suspect this will either be a blowout or surprisingly - disturbingly - close. But this is really just the epilogue. The actual story is over.

Mikulski - the Sex Godess of the Senate will be returned by her drooling constituents. Btw, anyone else think that 'Wargotz' is a wonderful name for a Republican?

North Carolina - Burr 10, Superstition 0

South Carolina - I can barely bring myself to predict this, but I fear that DeMint is going to defeat the people's champion. And probably by a margin that is not so small. I regret this. I think we all regret this. I also think the reaction of the SC Democrats to Greene winning was ugly, stupid and unforgivable; their precious Rawls was a poor candidate (as he showed by losing to a nobody!) and would have been crushed as well. But they've gone and made things far worse for themselves than need be. Idiots.

Georgia - wtf was Thurmond playing at?

Florida - is it too early to yell 'I CALLED IT' in an obnoxious and irritating manner? Crist, crushed. Actually, if the usual patterns are repeated he may come third. It's possible, more than slightly possible, perhaps. If it happens I shall laugh.

Alabama - why are they even bothering to print the ballots?

Kentucky - Rand is a joke, but so was the retiring incumbent (no, not just towards the end. Always a joke). This is fools gold, almost certainly. If the Democrats wanted to spring an upset, they picked the wrong candidate (as I've said before). But this is an important race for other reasons; well, one reason. Kentucky has a good elections website and we get results earlier than elsewhere. Yay!

West Virginia - complicated. The one race that is genuinely perplexing. What on earth is going on? Console yourselves by noting that neither campaign is entirely sure either. There is a tension between a popular state government and an unpopular national one; and they both happen to be made up of people from the same party (demonstrating quite how much of a joke political parties are in the U.S). And the leaders of both are on the ballot, the one literally the other metaphorically. Difficult, difficult. There are probably more undecided voters (as a percentage) in WV than any other state, though most are probably undecided about whether to actually vote or not, rather than between the candidates. Raese is a bit of an afterthought really. He's a piss poor candidate, but he's a warm body and represents the opposition to the President, therefore he has a chance (but will struggle to win re-election if he pulls it off). Manchin, by the way, is not a good candidate either. He has never won a seriously contested statewide election before and it shows. He's popular, obviously, but not the best sort of popular electorally; yeah, people like him, but no one is going to crawl over broken glass to vote for him. I could blather on for quite a while yet (noting, say, Manchin's geographical base or the fact that turnout patterns are probably critical), but I'll stop now. Will note one thing, however. And that is this: this race is over. Has been for months. I don't know who for (Manchin is more likely than not, but Obama is seriously unpopular and people do like to kick the government), but that's not the point (well, it is, but sod that). The defeated candidate never stood a chance and had no hope of turning things round.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania - a Toomey defeat would be at least a little shocking; which says a great deal, doesn't it? This is still an important race though; if it's close, maybe this election won't be quite the utter disaster after all. If it's a rout - and that's possible as well - oh... right. Yeah.

So who wins? 

[Joe Biden 2020]

Since this is the official predictions thread, can we get this stickied for a couple weeks?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

House of Geriatric Millionaires - Part Two, Ohio to Hawaiʻi.

Ohio - splat.

Indiana - I am not normally a believer in the idea that you can tell whether someone is stupid or not merely by looking at their face. Too often unpleasant class and racial undertones are at work. But, well, I must admit that I always thought that Ellsworth had the face of an idiot. And so it has proved.

Illinois - I've not had the time to follow the twists and turns of this bizarre race, so probably I'm missing a load of very important stuff. Kirk has had a pretty consistent lead now, but it's a small one. And he's a Republican and this is the state that has Chicago in it. And there's also a Green candidate polling more than Kirk's lead. The latter point is a confusing factor because non D/R candidates normally poll less than they poll in polls (if you follow me). So, really, I have no idea who'll win. I'd guess that Kirk should be considered a narrow favourite, but not much more than that.

Wisconsin - Feingold is gone. Sorry. Unless something amazing happens, this will be one of the grimmest moment for a lot of people here (myself very much included). I hope I'm wrong, but I can't see any reason why I might be.

Iowa - the senile guy who looks like a sex offender will win by miles.

Missouri - the challenge to the incumbent has been rendered blunt by events. I suspect that this might not even be all that close.

Arkansas - expect nothing less than epic electoral butchery. Lincoln will be lucky to hit 40%. It may be so bad that it becomes genuinely funny.

Oklahoma - yeah, no interest here. Suppose it's good that Coburn spells his name the way he does. I always used to pronounce 'Cockburn' as it's spelt.

Kansas - the only question is whether Moran can crack 70%. Probably not, but it depends how many Democrats in Kansas can be bothered.

South Dakota - ...

North Dakota - a Third World margin to be expected.

Colorado - so, yeah. I understand that this is is a competitive and high profile race. But, I don't really get Colorado that well; it has too many of those essentially rootless suburbs that both bemuse and frighten me. Colorado does tend to swing unusual hard, so I suppose the advantage (not that there'd be much of one) is with man with the name of a deer and the face of a cracked cowpat.

Arizona - Maverick. Maverick. Maverick. Maverick. Maverick. That word has been forever tainted to the ears of many people. Maverick. Maverick. Maverick. Maverick.

Utah - whatever

Nevada - lol. failrace. hahahahahaha. But Reid is going down to that crazy lady. Funny given his obvious self-importance. Not so funny given that she belongs in a different type of institution to the one that she's trying to get elected to. Well, probably. Enough people might change their minds in the polling booth; Angle is crazy enough for that to be possible. Not something that can be counted on, though.

Idaho - where's the pimp?

Washington - on paper I would be inclined to give this to Murray, actually. Irrespective of the polls that scream tightness. The problem is that... eh... this has that awful feeling of the sort of race that might be the cap on a landslide/major swing/both. And Rossi is just the sort that usually benefits when such things benefit conservative parties; a nausea-inducing snake oil salesman. Hmm...

Oregon - Wyden will win easily. And this will be A Good Thing.

California - again, I've not really followed this in a way that makes my ramblings worthwhile. Boxer will probably win, though not by much. An upset is possible, but Fiorina is a dreadful candidate.

Alaska - hahahahahahaha! In one respect this doesn't matter; functionally this is going to be a Republican hold. I don't understand Alaska well enough to know which Republican faction will end up on top; the official candidate seems more likely, but he's a bit of a nutter.

Hawaiʻi - Inouye wins.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'll probably do more predictions later, but I have a funny feeling that the Republicans will take over both the House and the Senate.  The Republican wave, I think, is even bigger than the media makes it out to be.  I'm thinking a net gain of 50-55 seats in the House for the Republicans (net gain of 39 is needed for control) and a net gain of 10 seats in the Senate making a 51-49 Republican advantage in the Senate.  I think Alaska will end up staying Republican.  Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana and West Virginia will allflip, and there is a good possibility Washington will, as well.

I do have a question, though, if we have a 50-50 split, will Mitch McConnell be maj leader or will Reid, Schumer or Durbin be maj leader because of Joe Biden?

[Sam Spade]

Just gonna comment on what I care about...

Connecticut - it's been a bit of a rocky ride for Blumenthal - certainly not the easy victory that seemed so certain early on - but defeat seems out of the question. In fact, he ought to win pretty comfortably. A surprisingly narrow win is possible and would be an indication of serious problems for his party. Obviously.

Delawhere? - Coons will win, obviously. I suspect this will either be a blowout or surprisingly - disturbingly - close. But this is really just the epilogue. The actual story is over.

I tend to agree with this a lot.  But my own suspicions are that the big spenders tend to overpoll and the nuts tend to underpoll - henceforth why I have McMahon and O'Donnell losing by the same margins (one in line with all polling, the other in line only with a few).  Of course, watch me be completely wrong.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Toomey winning by more than 5 would signal disaster for Dems, I agree. (i.e. the 70+seat disaster in the House becomes a 50-50 proposition at that point imo).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is going to be nothing more enjoyable that watching Crist go down hard Tuesday.  And then rubbing it in other people's faces when we were both right...   He may be one of the most despicable people in politics I've seen. 

I agree completely about Kentucky and WV, but see no reason to quote mindlessly.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree 100%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You do realize that most of the people who will vote have already voted in both of these elections.    I'd personally be shocked if Angle went down at this point - I don't think Reid can pull that many voters out (though they may exist in NV).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I've gotten Alaska wrong so many times I'm almost feeling like giving up, but I won't.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

New Hampshire: Ayotte 54%, Hodes 44%
Vermont: Leahy 63%, Britton 34%
Connecticut: Blumenthal 53%, McMahon 45%
New York: Schumer 62%, Townsend 34%
New York Special: Gillibrand 60%, DioGuardi 37%
Pennsylvania: Toomey 52%, Sestak 48%
Delaware: Coons 59%, O'Donnell 37%
Maryland: Mikulski 62%, Wargotz 36%
West Virginia: Manchin 53%, Raese 45%
North Carolina: Burr 54%, Marshall 43%
South Carolina: DeMint 61%, Greene 23%
Georgia: Isakson 58%, Thurmond 39%
Florida: Rubio 47%, Crist 34%, Meek 17%
Alabama: Shelby 66%, Barnes 33%
Kentucky: Paul 56%, Conway 44%
Ohio: Portman 57%, Fisher 41%
Indiana: Coats 56%, Ellsworth 41%
Louisiana: Vitter 57%, Melancon 41%
Arkansas: Boozman 57%, Lincoln 41%
Missouri: Blunt 54%, Carnahan 44%
Illinois: Giannoulias 47%*, Kirk 47%
Wisconsin: Johnson 52%, Feingold 46%
Iowa: Grassley 59%, Conlin 37%
South Dakota: Thune 99.99999%
North Dakota: Hoeven 70%, Potter 27%
Kansas: Moran 66%, Johnson 31%
Oklahoma: Coburn 69%, Rogers 28%
Colorado: Bennet 49%*, Buck 49%
Arizona: McCain 57%, Glassman 39%
Utah: Lee 63%, Granato 35%
Idaho: Crapo 70%, Sullivan 28%
Nevada: Reid 47%, Angle 46%
California: Boxer 51%, Fiorina 45%
Oregon: Wyden 57%, Huffman 41%
Washington: Murray 51%, Rossi 49%
Hawaii: Inouye 64%, Cavasso 33%
Alaska: Miller 39%, Murkowski 30%, McAdams 30%

Senate: Democrats hold Senate. GOP: +5 seats
House Predictions: Republicans retake House. GOP: +54 seats

Someone has to be a red avy optimist.

[xavier110]

Senate:
Likely D: Connecticut
Lean D: California, Washington
Tossup/Tilt-D: West Virginia
Tossup: Colorado, Illinois
Tossup/Tilt-I: Alaska
Tossup/Tilt-R: Nevada
Lean R: Pennsylvania
Likely R: Wisconsin

Gubernatorial:
Likely D: California, Colorado, Maryland
Lean D: Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire
Tossup/Tilt-D: Connecticut, Hawaii, Oregon
Tossup: Florida, Ohio, Vermont
Tossup/Tilt-I: Rhode Island
Lean R: Illinois
Likely R: Georgia, Maine, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans gain 47 House seats and seven Senate seats.  Surprisingly good Democratic GOTV keeps losses at the lower range of possibilities, setting them up for taking back the House in 2012. 

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

I do have a question, though, if we have a 50-50 split, will Mitch McConnell be maj leader or will Reid, Schumer or Durbin be maj leader because of Joe Biden?

Joe Biden would cast the tie-breaking vote and the Democrats would take control of the Senate, most likely leading to a Senate Majority Leader Schumer.

That being said, it wouldn't majorly surprise me if Ben Nelson or Joe Lieberman flipped the bird to the Democratic Party and joined the Republicans, thrusting Senate control to the GOP (though they both would have to retire in 2012).

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow is a holiday here, so I´ll make my final predictions tomorrow.

But for me it´s probably going to be:

Strong DEM (10%+)

OR, HI, CT, VT, NY (R), NY (S), MD, DE

Likely DEM (5-10%)

CA

Slight DEM (0.01%-5%)

WA, WV

Strong GOP (10%+)

ID, UT, AZ, ND, SD, KS, OK, IA, MO, AR, LA, IN, OH, KY, AL, GA, FL, SC, NC, NH

Likely GOP (5-10%)

WI

Slight GOP (0.01%-5%)

NV, CO, IL, PA

Slight IND (0.01%-5%)

AK

[Psychic Octopus]

Eh, might as well, since all the cool kids are doing it. I'll not do tossups, but I literally have no idea about Alaska. I think that either Murkowski or Miller will win, though, so the end result wil be the same. I just don't know, and Alaska polling is so fickle that it is almost pointless to even try. So, I'll go with a median Republican gain of about eight, which lately appears to be the common answer.

Solid Democrat:

CT, DE, HI, MD, NY (R), NY (S), VT

Lean Democrat:

CA

Tilt Democrat:

WA, WV

Tilt Republican:

CO, IL

Lean Republican:

NV, PA

Strong Republican:

AL, AR, AZ, FL, GA, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, NC, ND, NH, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Who the hell knows/cares:

AK

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Eh, might as well, since all the cool kids are doing it. I'll not do tossups, but I literally have no idea about Alaska. I think that either Murkowski or Miller will win, though, so the end result wil be the same. I just don't know, and Alaska polling is so fickle that it is almost pointless to even try. So, I'll go with a median Republican gain of about eight, which lately appears to be the common answer.

Solid Democrat:

CT, DE, HI, MD, NY (R), NY (S), VT

Lean Democrat:

CA

Tilt Democrat:

WA, WV

Tilt Republican:

CO, IL

Lean Republican:

NV, PA

Strong Republican:

AL, AR, AZ, FL, GA, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, NC, ND, NH, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Who the hell knows/cares:

AK

Agreed. My best guess is that the Dems win all your Dem tilts and Dem leans while the Repubs win all your GOP tilts and GOP leans. I'm also guessing Miller wins in AK, but it doesn't really matter.

[Vepres]

Senate

Solidly Democratic
DE, HI, MD, NY, NY (S), OR, VT

Lean Democratic
CT

Toss-up; Tilt Democratic
CA, WV

Toss-up; Tilt Republican
CO, IL, PA, WA

Lean Republican
KY, MO, NV, WI

Solidly Republican
AL, AR, AZ, FL, IA, ID, IN, KS, LA, NC, ND, NH, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Lean Independent
AK

Governor

Solidly Democratic
NY

Lean Democratic
AR, CA, CO, CT, MD

Toss-up; Tilt Democratic
FL, HI, MN

Toss-up; Tilt Republican
IL, MA, ME, NH, OR, TX, VT, WI

Lean Republican
GA, MI, NM, OH, PA

Solidly Republican
AL, AK, AZ, IA, ID, KS, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, UT, WY

Toss-up; Tilt Independent
RI

[Joe Biden 2020]

I do have a question, though, if we have a 50-50 split, will Mitch McConnell be maj leader or will Reid, Schumer or Durbin be maj leader because of Joe Biden?

Joe Biden would cast the tie-breaking vote and the Democrats would take control of the Senate, most likely leading to a Senate Majority Leader Schumer.

That being said, it wouldn't majorly surprise me if Ben Nelson or Joe Lieberman flipped the bird to the Democratic Party and joined the Republicans, thrusting Senate control to the GOP (though they both would have to retire in 2012).

I could see Ben Nelson flipping before Joe Lieberman.  Joe is still a Democrat at heart, even though he is a Republican on foreign policy.  Ben Nelson is pretty much a DINO.  Of course, Joe knows he's toast in 2012 whether or not he flips.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Senate

R pickups: AR, CO, IL, IN, NV, ND, PA, WI

Also guessing Murkowski is re-elected defeated by Miller.

Governors

R pickups: IL, IA, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, PA, TN, WI, WY
D pickups: CA, CT, FL, HI, MN, VT
I pickup: RI

[Torie]

Over/Under GOP +66 Dem Seats less 3 GOP losses for net gain of 63 seats.

Dem Seats in Serious Play
State CD   PVI   Call   Seat #

TN   06   13   R   1   1
LA   03   12   R   1   2
IN   08   8   R   2   3
FL   02   6   R   2   4
AR   02   5   R   2   5
NY   29   5   R   2   6
MS   01   14   R   3   7
GA   08   10   R   3   8
AR   01   8   R   3   9
CO   04   6   R   3   10
TN   08   6   R   3   11
PA   03   3   R   3   12
FL   08   2   R   3   13
TX   17   20   R   4   14
ND   01   13   R   4   15
SC   05   7   R   4   16
CO   03   5   R   4   17
VA   05   5   R   4   18
FL   24   4   R   4   19
OH   16   4   R   4   20
KS   03   3   R   4   21
OH   01   1   D   4   22
OH   15   1   D   4   23
MS   04   20   R   5   24
AL   02   13   R   5   25
TN   04   13   R   5   26
ND   AL   10   R   5   27
SD   AL   9   R   5   28
PA   10   8   R   5   29
OH   18   7   R   5   30
IN   09   6   R   5   31
AZ   05   5   R   5   32
VA   02   5   R   5   33
TX   23   4   R   5   34
MI   01   3   R   5   35
NY   20   2   R   5   36
CA   11   1   R   5   37
IL   11   1   R   5   38
IL   14   1   R   5   39
NJ   03   1   R   5   40
WA   03   0   D   5   41
NH   01   0   D   5   42
FL   22   1   D   5   43
GA   02   1   D   5   44
NV   03   2   D   5   45
IL   17   3   D   5   46
WI   07   3   D   5   47
CA   20   5   D   5   48
NC   02   2   R   5   49
VA   09   11   R   5.4   50
NM   02   5   R   5.4   51
NC   07   5   R   5.4   52
AZ   08   4   R   5.4   53
NY   19   3   R   5.4   54
IN   02   2   R   5.4   55
NC   02   2   R   5.4   56
WI   08   2   R   5.4   57
NC   08   2   R   5.4   58
NY   23   1   R   5.4   59
OR   05   1   D   5.4   60
CT   05   2   D   5.4   61
PA   08   2   D   5.4   62
PA   07   3   D   5.4   63
PA   11   4   D   5.4   64
NM   02   6   D   5.4   65
WV   01   9   R   5.5   66
NC   11   6   R   5.5   67
ID   01   18   R   5.6   68
MO   04   14   R   5.6   69
NY   13   4   R   5.6   70
MI   07   2   R   5.6   71
NY   24   2   R   5.6   72
OH   06   2   R   5.6   73
NY   01   0   D   5.6   74
MI   09   2   D   5.6   75
VA   11   2   D   5.6   76
MN   08   3   D   5.6   77
NH   02   3   D   5.6   78
CO   07   4   D   5.6   79
CT   04   5   D   5.6   80
MA   10   5   D   5.6   81
WA   09   5   D   5.6   82
AZ   07   6   D   5.6   83
ME   01   8   D   5.6   84
KY   06   9   R   6   85
PA   04   6   R   6   86
TX   27   2   R   6   87
MN   01   1   R   6   88
PA   12   1   R   6   89
IA   03   1   D   6   90
KY   03   2   D   6   91
OR   04   2   D   6   92
IL   12   3   D   6   93
ME   02   3   D   6   94
NY   25   3   D   6   95
WA   02   3   D   6   96
CA   18   4   D   6   97
CA   47   4   D   6   98
WI   03   4   D   6   99
IA   01   5   D   6   100
NJ   12   5   D   6   101
MO   03   7   D   6   102
NM   03   7   D   6   103
RI   01   13   D   6   104

[Phony Moderate]

Here's Part 1 of my state-by-state percentage predictions (D = Democratic candidate, R = Republican candidate, O = other candidates (I'll name the 'major' other candidates)):

New Hampshire - R - 57%, D - 41%, O - 2%

Vermont - D - 64%, R - 32%, O - 3%

Connecticut - D - 54%, R - 44%, O - 2%

New York - D - 63%, R - 34%, O - 2%

New York Special - D - 55%, R - 40%, O - 4%

Pennsylvania - R - 50%, D - 48%, O - 1%

Delaware - D - 55%, R - 42%, O - 2%

Maryland - D - 60%, R - 38%, O - 1%

North Carolina - R - 55%, D - 40%, O - 4%

South Carolina - R - 65%, D - 25%, Clements - 9%

Georgia - R - 61%, D - 35%, O - 3%

Florida - R - 48%, Crist - 31%, D - 20%

Alabama - R - 64%, D - 32%, O - 3%

Kentucky - R - 54%, D - 44%, O - 1%

West Virginia - D - 49%, R - 49%, O - 1% (D wins)

[Phony Moderate]

Part 2:

Ohio - R - 58%, D - 40%, O - 1%

Indiana - R - 58%, D - 36%, O - 5%

Illinois - R - 47%, D - 46%, O - 6%

Wisconsin - R - 52%, D - 47%, O - 1%

Iowa - R - 61%, D - 36%, O - 2%

Missouri - R - 54%, D - 43%, O - 2%

Arkansas - R - 58%, D - 40%, O - 1%

Oklahoma - R - 70%, D - 28%, O - 1%

Kansas - R - 69%, D - 27%, O - 3%

South Dakota - R - 85%, O - 15%

North Dakota - R - 73%, D - 25%, O - 1%

Colorado - R - 50%, D - 47%, O - 2%

Arizona - R - 61%, D - 35%, O - 3%

Utah - R - 62%, D - 34%, O - 3%

Nevada - R - 49%, D - 47%, O - 3%

Idaho - R - 70%, D - 25%, O - 4%

Washington - D - 50%, R - 49%, O - 1%

Oregon - D - 57%, R - 41%, O - 1%

California - D - 51%, R - 46%, O - 2%

Alaska - R - 37%, Murkowski - 34%, D - 28%  

Hawaii - D - 64%, R - 34%, O - 1%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Solidly Democratic
DE, HI, MD, NY, NY (S), OR, VT, CT

Lean Democratic
CA

Toss-up; Tilt Democratic
WV, WA, IL*

Toss-up; Tilt Republican
CO, PA, NV

Lean Republican
KY, MO, WI

Solidly Republican
AL, AR, AZ, FL, IA, ID, IN, KS, LA, NC, ND, NH, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

NFI...
AK

* I still the GOTV in Chicago will just this to the Dems... just

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

50-50
242-193