AZ-Gov(FOX):Doucey+11

[Zaybay]

*Spits out Coffee*, what the hell happened?! Im moving this to lean R, thats just too large of a lead. Perhaps it goes down, Im not sure. Gonna keep tabs on this race.

[Zaybay]

There is a theory floating around that Doucey is experiencing a bump from McCain's passing, and that could explain whats going on. I would like another pollster to collaborate the results.

[Zaybay]

Interesting crosstabs, the poll has Trump even in approval, but the poll has 48% Republicans. After looking at the crosstabs, its clear that the poll is rather R friendly, but it does seem that two things are true.
1. Ducey is experiencing a bounce due to McCain

2. Sinema is likely going to stay stagnent, or lose some of her lead

[Zaybay]

Interesting crosstabs, the poll has Trump even in approval, but the poll has 48% Republicans. After looking at the crosstabs, its clear that the poll is rather R friendly, but it does seem that two things are true.
1. Ducey is experiencing a bounce due to McCain

2. Sinema is likely going to stay stagnent, or lose some of her lead

How does 2. follow from the point you made about the sample being too R-heavy

Its due to the fact that Sinema is leading at 47 with the current sample. And a good portion shes winning are Republicans. Im pretty sure the Rs left in the sample will go against her, which will decrease her lead, but they may go to Sinema simply for the same reason the others did. Overall, I know that Sinema isnt going to be expanding her lead