Spanish General Election 2011

[Antonio the Sixth]

A lot of American posters in this board do exactly that, and it's genuinely annoying.

And when it comes to European posters talking about American elections...

The average European forumer knows far more about American politics than the average American forumer does about European politics. That's understandable, considering this is supposed to be a forum about American politics.

[BenNebbich]

It's about the spanish general election in 2011, not about 'European' and/or 'American' posters.

BenNebbich

[Tender Branson]

New Metroscopia poll:

44.8% PP
30.8% PSOE

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hucxnd1JhwqsUlUcRgVD73TerD_w?docId=CNG.0e9d32f6b6e3e44566c0ace391df08f3.511

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Urgh. Less good.

[Tender Branson]

Urgh. Less good.

Well, I just looked through the Spanish news and it gets even worse:

http://www.larazon.es/noticia/7247-rajoy-noquea-a-rubalcaba

http://www.larazon.es/documents/get_document/44844

La Razon has a new detailed poll out today and the PP is winning in almost every group polled.

Here are the toplines:

46.9% PP (183-186 seats)
30.9% PSOE (118-122 seats)
  6.6% IU (7-8 seats)
  3.8% CIU (12-14 seats)
  3.2% UPyD (4 seats)
  1.2% EAJ-PNV (5-6 seats)
  1.0% BNG (3 seats)
  6.4% Others

Of those who will abstain in the coming elections, 72.5% are PSOE voters and just 18.2% are PP voters.

Of first-time voters, 46% will vote for the PP and only 24% for the PSOE.

Among 18-29 year olds: 41% PP, 25% PSOE
Among 30-44 year olds: 43% PP, 29% PSOE
Among 45-64 year olds: 47% PP, 32% PSOE
Among 65 year olds+: 54% PP, 35% PSOE

Projected abstention will be highest among 18-29 year olds with 44%, while only 23% of 65-year olds+ will abstain.

The PP is also projected to gain almost 1 Mio. ex-PSOE voters in the election.

Mariano Rajoy, PP-leader, is known to 99.9% of the Spanish population and gets a leader rating of 4.4 on a scale from 0-10.

Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, PSOE frontrunner, is known to 94.9% of the Spanish population and gets a leader rating of 4.3 on a scale from 0-10.

Here is the trend chart of voting intentions:

[Tender Branson]

Remember folks, the PSOE has a tradition of underpolling at general election time.

No, the polls in the last election correctly predicted a PSOE victory of about 4%.

Even a few months before the PSOE was ahead by about 4%, so it was really steady.

Link

Sry to say it but the PSOE will get absolutely slaughtered in November.

The only thing they can now try is damage control.

[Keystone Phil]

Rajoy is essentially known by every single Spaniard?

[Tender Branson]

Rajoy is essentially known by every single Spaniard?

According to this poll, yes.

I have also looked up if this is a good or a bad poll and I think they only started polling after the 2008 elections, because I can find only results from the 2009 EU elections and they were really accurate there. They predicted the PP to win by 3%, they won by 3.7%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_%28Spain%29

[Tender Branson]

El Mundo also has a poll, but only for Andalusia.

But because Andalusia has about 9 Mio. of the 47 Mio. inhabitants, it carries some weight.

Here is how Andalusia voted in 2008:

51.9% PSOE
38.2% PP

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/busquedaAvanzadaAction.html?vuelta=1&codTipoEleccion=2&codPeriodo=200803&codEstado=99&codComunidad=1&codProvincia=0&codMunicipio=0&codDistrito=0&codSeccion=0&codMesa=0

Here is what the El Mundo poll projects for November:

48.9% PP
34.3% PSOE

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/07/28/andalucia/1311847293.html

That is really a very, very bad indicator ...

[minionofmidas]

If that poll is accurate, then... wow.

[Tender Branson]

If that poll is accurate, then... wow.

This poll is not only true, but also backed up by another recent poll I just found:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Remember folks, the PSOE has a tradition of underpolling at general election time.

No, the polls in the last election correctly predicted a PSOE victory of about 4%.

Even a few months before the PSOE was ahead by about 4%, so it was really steady.

Link

Sry to say it but the PSOE will get absolutely slaughtered in November.

The only thing they can now try is damage control.

I was more thinking back to the 1990s when Gonzalez always underpolled (they were meant to lose in 1993 and 1996 was going to be a massive landslide and in the end the PP didn't even win a majority). And of course, there is 2004. Just saying there is history. Not that I doubt that the PSOE will lose here.

[big bad fab]

If PP "with Rajoy in it" is so far ahead, even in Andalucia, how can the PSOE have the slightest hope ?!

Rajoy is probably one of the worst politicians electorally speaking .

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I still do not grasp the fact that Rajoy has not been kicked out as PP leader. Surly there must be someone better.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

El Mundo also has a poll, but only for Andalusia.

But because Andalusia has about 9 Mio. of the 47 Mio. inhabitants, it carries some weight.

Here is how Andalusia voted in 2008:

51.9% PSOE
38.2% PP

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/busquedaAvanzadaAction.html?vuelta=1&codTipoEleccion=2&codPeriodo=200803&codEstado=99&codComunidad=1&codProvincia=0&codMunicipio=0&codDistrito=0&codSeccion=0&codMesa=0

Here is what the El Mundo poll projects for November:

48.9% PP
34.3% PSOE

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/07/28/andalucia/1311847293.html

That is really a very, very bad indicator ...

Oh dear God just let this election be over.

[redcommander]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

You're lucky it's the morning and I feel generous.
"nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right [...]" That is one of the biggest false statements I've heard.

While it is true that Basque and Catalan nationalism are in plurality right-wing, and they have clear reasons for being right-wing; what holds the PNV and CiU together is not acting as a conservative-party-for-the-region a la UPN but rather nationalism. Both parties appeal beyond basic conservatism and the right. While perhaps in a totally alternate universe where there's no such thing as Basque and Catalan nationalism and everybody there loves Spain, maybe the PP would be strong.

If the PP is weak in those regions it is because it carries opinions contrary to those of a majority of voters. It is because it is the voice of Spanish nationalism and has a clear record of opposing much devolution, although the Aznar 96-00 government did indeed devolve powers which had yet to be devolved. The Catalan PP is the only party, with the Cs, which is not even moderately Catalanist, which a vast majority of Catalan voters (80%+) are. Its strongholds are not rural Catalonia, but rather the least nationalist coastal region around Barcelona. The Basque PP is the most vocal representative of Spanish nationalism in Euskadi. If it has such a base in Euskadi today it is only because Basque nationalism unlike Catalanism is not some broad consensus shared by 8 in 10 Basques, but rather a polarizing ideology which has its fair share of opponents, a lot stemming from the fact that many people in Euskadi don't even understand Euskara and have historically hated Basque nationalists. It also has a base as the most vocal opponent of ETA's terror, which has allowed it to take in a lot of votes from ETA opponents. Normally, people who hate ETA don't normally vote PNV, you know.

While the CiU and PNV have both cooperated with the PP, they did so for clear reasons of necessity. The CiU is closer to the PP because they're moderates, but there is very bad blood between the PNV and PP ever since roughly 1998 (and before, obviously. I doubt the Gernika Survivors Club is fond of Manuel Fraga's party) when the PNV chose the path of alliances with other nationalists including the abertzales instead of the 1980s cooperation with Socialists. It is infinitely clear that the PP does NOT lose support to nationalists because the two take votes from very, very different groups of voters. Those Euskara speakers in, say, Gernika who vote PNV would rather eat their feces than vote for a party which a lot see as the Falange reincarnated. They are much, much more likely to vote abertzale; and, in general, for Socialists.

I don't think you grasp how Basque and Catalan nationalism is not just some cute regionalism about defending a cute language like in Bretagne, but rather a real vision of Spain and vision of the world which is a defining societal and political thing. For them, there's a lot more to nationalism than speaking Catalan/Euskara with friends in a bar. They have a vision of Spain which is different, very much so in the PP's case, from the rest of Spain's vision (broadly speaking and acting as if Galician nationalists are not there). So, yes, please stop "making bold assertions about things you don't know a damn about" because it is very annoying.

There's no point in arguing because whatever I say will be interpreted as being incorrect, or not as detailed as you would like. Sorry if what I stated made it seem as though I was associating the PNV and CIU with political parties like the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania and Swedish People's Party in Finland.

[redcommander]

I still do not grasp the fact that Rajoy has not been kicked out as PP leader. Surly there must be someone better.

There are, but according to Juliomadrid, its hard to kick him out because the PP doesn't have a party election system like the PSOE.

[redcommander]

El Mundo also has a poll, but only for Andalusia.

But because Andalusia has about 9 Mio. of the 47 Mio. inhabitants, it carries some weight.

Here is how Andalusia voted in 2008:

51.9% PSOE
38.2% PP

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/busquedaAvanzadaAction.html?vuelta=1&codTipoEleccion=2&codPeriodo=200803&codEstado=99&codComunidad=1&codProvincia=0&codMunicipio=0&codDistrito=0&codSeccion=0&codMesa=0

Here is what the El Mundo poll projects for November:

48.9% PP
34.3% PSOE

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/07/28/andalucia/1311847293.html

That is really a very, very bad indicator ...

What broke in the news recently that has led to such a massive swing? Most recent national polls were only showing the PSOE down by 6-10 points.

[ag]

Just a bit more on Catalan politics. The thing to understand is that in Catalonia the middle/professional classes are overwhelmingly Catalan linguistically and Catalanist politically. Castilian language (and, to some extent, identity) are present in two very diverse population strata: a very small numerically (and, hence, electorally insignificant) aristocracy and the working class (which is, to a not insignificant degree, ethnically Andalusian).

For Catalans (i.e., the Catalan middle class) PP is a foreign party, as relevant to their political choices as the British Tories - except, perhaps, there is less hostility to Tories ) PP in Madrid stands for everything they despise - mainly, the strong unitary Spanish state. Probably, some figures in local PP would like to mitigate this image, but they are not strong enough either locally or within the national party.

As for the working class, PP, a quintessentially right-wing party, has no appeal. PSC (the local PSOE affiliate) might be Catalanist - but, at least, it is a working-class party.

There is another, historical aspect to this. PP is, fundamentally, a "Franquist" party: perhaps, not formally, but in terms of identity of many of its adherents - it's the party of the victors in the Civil War. It's not that Catalonia didn't have those who actively collaborated with the dictatorship, but, in general, they tended to find their political home in the U wing of the CiU. Unlike those with similar past in Castile, by now they'd rather forget about their own history: it's easier to think that they always have been, at least at home, good Catalan patriots.  And, of course, workers feel little attraction to their historic enemies: their party is PSC, not PP, however upset they might be about the Catalanist policies of the Autonomous governments.

[ag]

I don't know much about Spanish polling, but, let's keep in mind, that Spanish papers are openly partisan. El Pais is socialist (sometimes even Socialist), while El Mundo is solidly PP. Especially at the early stage of the campaign, I wouldn't put it past either paper to try to use the polling results to influence the actual campaign.

[Hash]

El Mundo also has a poll, but only for Andalusia.

But because Andalusia has about 9 Mio. of the 47 Mio. inhabitants, it carries some weight.

Here is how Andalusia voted in 2008:

51.9% PSOE
38.2% PP

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/busquedaAvanzadaAction.html?vuelta=1&codTipoEleccion=2&codPeriodo=200803&codEstado=99&codComunidad=1&codProvincia=0&codMunicipio=0&codDistrito=0&codSeccion=0&codMesa=0

Here is what the El Mundo poll projects for November:

48.9% PP
34.3% PSOE

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/07/28/andalucia/1311847293.html

That is really a very, very bad indicator ...

This poll is for regional elections in Andalusia, not the November general elections. Normally, they will be held in March 2012 alongside the GE if there had been no early dissolution. This year, it seems as if Andalusia will hold them alone in March and not precipitate them.

There has been some major scandals around the autonomous government involving the government paying early retirement for people who never worked for a company: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esc%C3%A1ndalo_de_los_ERE_en_Andaluc%C3%ADa The economy is also, obviously, very bad in Andalusia with something like 30% unemployment.

The PP had already topped the poll in Andalusia in May, the first time since the 1979 locals that a party other than the PSOE did so. The PSOE vote fell by 9% in Andalusia while falling by 7.8% nationally. The PP vote increased by 6.9% in Andalusia while only increasing by a bit less than 2% nationally.

[Niemeyerite]

PSOE's nevr lost an election in Andalucia. After more than 20 years, "andaluces" think this is the time to change the Governament. There are a lot of people who will vote PP in the Regional elections but will vote Rubalcaba in November (like Castilla la-Mancha usually votes PSOE in Regionals and PP in Generals, more or less like Arkansas in the USA: democrat and republican in different levels).

If I were you I'd only believe ELPAIS polls, Metroscopia polls and the CIS.
El Mundo, La Gaceta and ABC polls are obviously PP friendly. La Razón is clearly "Marianista" but their polls tend to be OK the month before the election.
Publico polls are biased, too. However, they're PSOE and IU friendly.

We will loose, but not bymore than 7 points, I think. Don't forget, people, that Rajoy is synonim of Disaster.

[Tender Branson]

New poll:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sigh...

Are people that stupid ?

[Tender Branson]

Sigh...

Are people that stupid ?

Not stupid, but really pissed.