Spanish General Election 2011 (user search)
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Author Topic: Spanish General Election 2011  (Read 92351 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: April 02, 2011, 06:48:14 AM »
President ?

Please rename it to "Parliamentary Elections".

Spain has a King and an Prime Minister, not a President.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2011, 12:00:43 PM »
New Metroscopia poll:

44.8% PP
30.8% PSOE

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hucxnd1JhwqsUlUcRgVD73TerD_w?docId=CNG.0e9d32f6b6e3e44566c0ace391df08f3.511
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2011, 12:37:01 PM »

Well, I just looked through the Spanish news and it gets even worse:

http://www.larazon.es/noticia/7247-rajoy-noquea-a-rubalcaba

http://www.larazon.es/documents/get_document/44844

La Razon has a new detailed poll out today and the PP is winning in almost every group polled.

Here are the toplines:

46.9% PP (183-186 seats)
30.9% PSOE (118-122 seats)
  6.6% IU (7-8 seats)
  3.8% CIU (12-14 seats)
  3.2% UPyD (4 seats)
  1.2% EAJ-PNV (5-6 seats)
  1.0% BNG (3 seats)
  6.4% Others

Of those who will abstain in the coming elections, 72.5% are PSOE voters and just 18.2% are PP voters.

Of first-time voters, 46% will vote for the PP and only 24% for the PSOE.

Among 18-29 year olds: 41% PP, 25% PSOE
Among 30-44 year olds: 43% PP, 29% PSOE
Among 45-64 year olds: 47% PP, 32% PSOE
Among 65 year olds+: 54% PP, 35% PSOE

Projected abstention will be highest among 18-29 year olds with 44%, while only 23% of 65-year olds+ will abstain.

The PP is also projected to gain almost 1 Mio. ex-PSOE voters in the election.

Mariano Rajoy, PP-leader, is known to 99.9% of the Spanish population and gets a leader rating of 4.4 on a scale from 0-10.

Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, PSOE frontrunner, is known to 94.9% of the Spanish population and gets a leader rating of 4.3 on a scale from 0-10.

Here is the trend chart of voting intentions:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2011, 12:46:35 PM »
Quote from: The Goy's Teeth on July 30, 2011, 07:54:19 PM
Remember folks, the PSOE has a tradition of underpolling at general election time.

No, the polls in the last election correctly predicted a PSOE victory of about 4%.

Even a few months before the PSOE was ahead by about 4%, so it was really steady.

Link

Sry to say it but the PSOE will get absolutely slaughtered in November.

The only thing they can now try is damage control.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2011, 01:08:14 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on July 31, 2011, 12:57:57 PM
Rajoy is essentially known by every single Spaniard?

According to this poll, yes.

I have also looked up if this is a good or a bad poll and I think they only started polling after the 2008 elections, because I can find only results from the 2009 EU elections and they were really accurate there. They predicted the PP to win by 3%, they won by 3.7%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_%28Spain%29
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2011, 01:33:48 PM »
El Mundo also has a poll, but only for Andalusia.

But because Andalusia has about 9 Mio. of the 47 Mio. inhabitants, it carries some weight.

Here is how Andalusia voted in 2008:

51.9% PSOE
38.2% PP

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/busquedaAvanzadaAction.html?vuelta=1&codTipoEleccion=2&codPeriodo=200803&codEstado=99&codComunidad=1&codProvincia=0&codMunicipio=0&codDistrito=0&codSeccion=0&codMesa=0

Here is what the El Mundo poll projects for November:

48.9% PP
34.3% PSOE

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/07/28/andalucia/1311847293.html

That is really a very, very bad indicator ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2011, 02:22:03 PM »
Quote from: Fredi Linden on July 31, 2011, 01:36:24 PM
If that poll is accurate, then... wow.

This poll is not only true, but also backed up by another recent poll I just found:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2011, 07:36:52 AM »
New poll:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2011, 07:42:03 AM »

Not stupid, but really pissed.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2011, 08:38:47 AM »
3 polls out today. With 6 weeks to go, the PSOE is still stuck in deep sh*t:

El Mundo/Sigma Dos:

47.8% PP (193 seats)
31.6% PSOE (122 seats)

La Razón/NC Report:

46.1% PP (183 seats)
30.6% PSOE (118 seats)

The PP is also expected to win 15 of the 17 regions.

La Vanguardia/Noxa Consulting:

46% PP (186-192 seats)
33% PSOE (115-122 seats)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2011, 06:59:36 AM »
Now it's really time to say GAME OVER to the Spanish Socialists even for the few members here who thought the PSOE could narrow the margin:

El Pais poll out today:

45.5% PP
29.7% PSOE

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2011/10/16/actualidad/1318723042_948659.html

El Mundo poll out today:

48.0% PP
30.8% PSOE

http://elmundo.orbyt.es/2011/10/16/elmundo_en_orbyt/1318731297.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2011, 09:00:52 AM »
There is already a topic on this with 13 pages ...

Please delete.

Wink

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=133984.0
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2011, 09:12:27 AM »
With 1 week to go, there is a new COPE poll out:

45.4% PP (188-192 seats)
31.8% PSOE (115-118 seats)
  5.6% IU (8 seats)
  3.4% UPYD (3 seats)
  3.3% CIU (13 seats)
  1.4% AMAIUR (4-5 seats)
  1.3% PNV (5-6 seats)
  7.8% Others

http://www.cope.es/file_upload/pdf/13210151551072155440.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2011, 04:20:18 AM »
New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2011, 04:42:43 AM »
Actually, it seems there are a ton of final polls out:

Metroscopia/El País:

45.4% PP (194 seats)
30.9% PSOE (112 seats)

Sigma-Dos/El Mundo:

47.6% PP (198 seats)
29.8% PSOE (112 seats)

DYM/ABC:

46.5% PP (187-188 seats)
34.2% PSOE (123-126 seats)

Noxa/La Vanguardia:

44.7% PP (184-189 seats)
30.1% PSOE (116-120 seats)

GESOP/El Periódico:

46.2% PP (188-192 seats)
30.2% PSOE (115-118 seats)

Tábula-V/LA GACETA:

45.2% PP (184-187 seats)
31.3% PSOE (121-123 seats)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2011, 04:50:33 AM »
What's also important:

The IU is gaining ground strongly in the final week. It is now polling between 7% and 10% in these polls. Probably pissed-off PSOE voters, who switch over to the Left.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: November 20, 2011, 01:38:49 AM »
Here are some statistics from the MIR (Spanish Interior Ministry):

35.779.208 people will be eligible to vote

34.296.458 who live in Spain and 1.482.750 Spanish who live abroad

http://elecciones.mir.es/generales2011/Las_elecciones_en_cifras/Las_elecciones_en_cifras.htm
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2011, 01:45:40 AM »
I'll try a prediction:

44.4% PP (ca. 185 seats)
33.1% PSOE (ca. 115 seats)
  8.3% IU
  3.9% CiU
  3.5% UPyD
  6.8% Others

Turnout: 70-75%

PS: I'd probably vote for Equo (a small Green party) if I could vote in Spain today.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2011, 03:01:26 AM »
BTW: The first turnout estimate will come at 2pm.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2011, 03:58:19 AM »
Quote from: Meno male che Silvio non c'è più ! on November 20, 2011, 03:53:19 AM
Is turnout expected to drop significantly ? With the crisis and all, there should be plenty of people disappointed by politics in general.

Or they could just support smaller parties this time.

We'll know more at 2pm.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2011, 04:03:57 AM »
This will be the results page incl. turnout figures:

www.generales2011.mir.es
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2011, 08:54:52 AM »
Turnout is lower so far:

37.9% vs. 40.5% in 2008

That would mean ~70% turnout for today.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2011, 10:46:32 AM »
The next turnout numbers will be released @ 6pm.

61% will be the number to beat for this measurement.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: November 20, 2011, 11:07:26 AM »
La Razon will have an Exit Poll already @ 8pm, not 9pm when polls close:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://larazon.es/noticia/3746-hoy-a-las-20-00-horas-encuesta-exclusiva-en-la-razon
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: November 20, 2011, 12:18:51 PM »
Turnout @ 6pm was 57.5% instead of 61%.

So yeah, 70% looks good for today.
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