USAToday/Gallup: McCain +4 among likely & Obama +3 among registered

[ThePrezMex]

I'm surprised nobody posted this earlier:

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/



Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.

Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points -- so McCain's lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.

Who is a likely voter? In this poll, Frank says, that was determined by how much thought people have given to the election, how often they say they vote and whether they plan to vote in the election in November.

He says the number of likely GOP voters is up for now, probably in part because of Obama's trip and the "laudatory" media coverage of it. "At least in the short term it may have had the side effect of energizing Republicans," he says. Also, he says that McCain's sharp words about Obama and the media last week may have energized his faithful.

Check Pollster.com's charts to compare the USA TODAY/Gallup results to those from other pollsters. Other recent polls of likely voters had Obama slightly ahead.

The USA TODAY/Gallup Poll is separate from Gallup's daily "tracking" poll on the presidential race, which this afternoon shows Obama ahead by 8 points among registered voters -- 48%-40%.

Frank says that while the tracking poll indicates Obama may have gotten some gains from his overseas trip last week, any benefits may be short-lived. That tracking poll of 2,674 registered voters was also done Friday-Sunday and the margins of error on the results are +/- 2 percentage points.

As for the difference between the tracking and USA TODAY/Gallup polls, Frank says not to read too much into it. "Statistical noise" may be largely to blame.

Watch for more from the polls and analysis of the results later today at USATODAY.com and in tomorrow's print editions of USA TODAY.

[agcatter]

summer polling - no one is focused yet.

It will be a close election.

[Flying Dog]

This poll is trash. I'm not just saying that because I want to believe that, either.

Non-trackers, for the most part, have consistently been 4-5% better for Obama then the trackers.

[ThePrezMex]

I agree that this poll looks very weird - I don't believe that McCain is ahead (as much as I would want that)... and unfortunately they are not providing yet more details in order to analyze it but, why do you all think Gallup came with so extremely different numbers in their two polls? does anybody has any insight of the differences in the samples they use for their tracking poll and this other one?

[Thomas Jackson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

BWWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

[elcorazon]

Obama's in trouble. 

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama's in trouble. 

On the basis of one poll?

[Sam Spade]

No one's posted it yet because it doesn't fit into the meme certain posters here (hows about most posters here) want to believe.

Naturally, the poll is likely garbage, but then again so is most everything being put out right now.

Be patient.

[Wiz in Wis]

So, between Research 2000 and Gallup, we have an 18 point spread. Sounds like Summer to me

Also, this is why anyone with a likely voter model in July is full of it.

[Verily]

For those confused by why this poll has such a large divergence between "Registered" and "Likely" voters (especially when the pool difference in only 900 RVs against 791 LVs), this is because the USAT/Gallup polls use a very unusual method of determining likely voters. Rather than ask whether people are likely to vote, Gallup (but not Gallup tracking) simply reweights their poll based on how likely they think people are to vote. This could be more accurate in the sense that it avoids the small number of people who may say that they are certain to vote but will actually stay home, but it is overall a largely untested--and unconventional--method.

[Alcon]

For those confused by why this poll has such a large divergence between "Registered" and "Likely" voters (especially when the pool difference in only 900 RVs against 791 LVs), this is because the USAT/Gallup polls use a very unusual method of determining likely voters. Rather than ask whether people are likely to vote, Gallup (but not Gallup tracking) simply reweights their poll based on how likely they think people are to vote. This could be more accurate in the sense that it avoids the small number of people who may say that they are certain to vote but will actually stay home, but it is overall a largely untested--and unconventional--method.

I always thought a lot of LV screens were based on past voters?

[Verily]

For those confused by why this poll has such a large divergence between "Registered" and "Likely" voters (especially when the pool difference in only 900 RVs against 791 LVs), this is because the USAT/Gallup polls use a very unusual method of determining likely voters. Rather than ask whether people are likely to vote, Gallup (but not Gallup tracking) simply reweights their poll based on how likely they think people are to vote. This could be more accurate in the sense that it avoids the small number of people who may say that they are certain to vote but will actually stay home, but it is overall a largely untested--and unconventional--method.

I always thought a lot of LV screens were based on past voters?

The difference is that Gallup simply eliminates those who don't fit the profile of a likely voter, whereas usual polls ask about your likelihood to vote and weight based on that.

[J. J.]

I think looking at the tracking polls alone the was some slight drift downward for Obama.  This is probably another indication, but probably too far down.

[Aizen]

McMentum

[Vsanto5]

OMG redo redo.

[CARLHAYDEN]

For those confused by why this poll has such a large divergence between "Registered" and "Likely" voters (especially when the pool difference in only 900 RVs against 791 LVs), this is because the USAT/Gallup polls use a very unusual method of determining likely voters. Rather than ask whether people are likely to vote, Gallup (but not Gallup tracking) simply reweights their poll based on how likely they think people are to vote. This could be more accurate in the sense that it avoids the small number of people who may say that they are certain to vote but will actually stay home, but it is overall a largely untested--and unconventional--method.

I always thought a lot of LV screens were based on past voters?

I like "likely voter" polls better than "registered voter" polls but, sometimes the "screen" is a little wacky.

Using simple expressed voter interest is a poor screen (better than nothing, but not a lot).

Using a demographic screen is slightly better than a voter interest screen, but obviously it is based on historical demographics which may not apply in a particular election.

Using a historical particpation screen is even better, but, some people will lie to you (and few polls have the money to put together a contact list of people who actually voted) and, it discounts new voters who were unable to legally vote in prior elections.

The best method is to blend the three methods, with greater weight being given to historical and lesser wirght to voter interest.

Oh, and BTW, I am amazed that Gallup would release this wacky result.

[Tender Branson]

Questions:

Who would do a better job dealing with ... the economy ?

McCain 45%, Obama 30%

Who would do a better job dealing with ... terrorism ?

Obama 48%, McCain 32%

I stopped taking this poll seriously when I saw this ...

[Eraserhead]

Questions:

Who would do a better job dealing with ... the economy ?

McCain 45%, Obama 30%

Who would do a better job dealing with ... terrorism ?

Obama 48%, McCain 32%

I stopped taking this poll seriously when I saw this ...

What. The. Hell?

[ThePrezMex]

So probably they just had the names reversed!!

so let's say, Obama +4 among likely and McCain + 3 among registered! still weird but makes more sense   (j/k)

[CARLHAYDEN]

Since no one has yet done it, let me compare the four most recent Gallup "likely voter" polls with their "registered voter" polls for the same time period:

Date                Likely Voters             Registered Voters          Difference (Likely/Registered)
                    McCain     Obama          McCain     Obama               McCain     Obama

7/25-27          49          45                    40          48                       +9           -3

6/15-19          44          50                    44          46                         0          +4

5/30-6/1         44          49                    46          46                       - 2          +3

5/1-3              48          47                    47          42                       +1          +5

First, the 7/25-27 and the 5/30-6/1 polls both indicate a candidate losing support among likely voters as compared to registered voters.  This is highly implausible as likely voters should have a much smaller undecided percentage.  So, while one candidate may gain relative to the other, for one candidate to lose support.... 

Second, the 7/25-27 likely voter poll would have an enormous gap between registered and likely voters, which is very improbable.