UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here come dat general election.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

In terms of ways to get around it: the government could prorogue parliament - end the session early to start another - which has been done by governments in the past to get around rules limitations

Apparently that would require a state opening of Parliament and a Queen's Speech. Would be absolutely extraordinary for the govt to attempt.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

There is precedent for it though - although its a massive expense just to override the ruling of the speaker just to lose by 70 votes this time

Yeah, the hilarious thing about Bercow's decision is that the House can still override his standing order with a motion to allow MV3 to be held. All Bercow has done is highlight the fact that the govt has no majority to actually win the vote (which is why everyone has been talking about MV4 for the past week). Checkmate.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here come dat general election.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Is that totally true ?  If confronted with a no deal Brexit on 3/29 would not some pro-Remain MPs might fold and vote for May's deal? 

She'd need 30-40 at least, very probably more, and to split the ERG also. Theoretically possible, but we're talking about the least tactically adroit PM in history.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I'm assuming that after the vote fails May will go for no deal. The question then is if enough Tory Remainers will bring her down in a vote of no confidence and if a new government can be formed to ask for a long term extension to A50, all before the deadline. I hope so, but who knows...

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here come dat general election.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

But obviously the idea of couping May should make absolutely zero sense to any vaguely sentient member of cabinet when one considers that they have no mechanism to force her out if she refuses to resign. And even if she did, they have no agreed upon candidate. And even if they had an agreed upon candidate it's impossible to see how they wouldn't split the party or even command support from the membership...like, this is the absolute worst example of ministers playing leadership politics instead of actually grappling with the political realities facing the government and country.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here come dat general election.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

What's disgusting is that their rationale for supporting the deal is "we'll just undo it anyway if it passes". If I was the EU I would actually think twice about ratifying the deal if it passes with only Tory votes.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Looks like the second referendum backers cleverly moved to kill off a soft Brexit today. Customs union motion was defeated by SNP abstaining, TIG voting against and 8 People's Vote Labour MPs abstaning/voting against. They've maneuvered the Kyle-Wilson "confirmatory public vote" into pole position among the Remain faction in parliament.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Utterly disgraceful that this is what MPs are basing their votes on as opposed to the national interest, even in a national crisis like this.

It's also a completely laughable take because most Leave voters actually hate the deal and don't want their MP to vote for it.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Why are people talking about no deal as if it's a realistic possibility?

The government doesn't want it.
The government hasn't planned for it.
The government has deliberately refused to bring forward legislation necessary for no deal to happen under UK law.
Parliament doesn't want no deal, and has ruled it out multiple times.
And even if the government were somehow hijacked by no dealers in the next couple of weeks (impossible), and we were faced with crashing out tomorrow, parliament would vote to revoke Article 50.
Shouting BRITS OUT LEAVE MEANS LEAVE is just dumb.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Sunday papers aren't exactly happy about the general election rumours...

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Only a matter of months until PM Corbyn then, right?

Yup.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Doesn't English independence poll somewhere in the 30s?